Correa is not trending toward the 500 million dollar contract I thought he might get some day. I’m not concerned about his back, but I am starting to wonder if he’s just going to be a 130 or 140 game type of guy every year. Which there’s nothing wrong with. But those guys aren’t ever considered best player in the game and they don’t win Mvp’s at 130 games and I get the sense that both of those things are important to him.
He's 23. He was trending towards that as recently as just last year. Career arcs aren't ever close to being defined at this point... but even then, what he's been doing thus far, at his age remains in a rarefied select few throughout the history of the game. Wasn't too long ago that people were questioning whether Springer could last a full season... then he played 162 games.
I know Springer had the questions but that was a little silly. 2014 imo they pretty clearly didn't play him b/c the wanted to lose toward the end and get one last bite at a decent draft pick. Then he got a broken bone getting plunked- that's not something to worry about- that's more like stuff happens. Put it to you this way- going into this year I would have put the over under on his total next contract at $400 million and bet the over. Now I think if you made me set an over under today it'd be at $350 million and I'd bet the under. He's now 3 years into his career, I was hoping we'd get AROD as a comparison (absurdly high expectations for Correa- that's how talented/special I think he is) and instead he's not distinguished himself- over his entire career, from Lindor or Seager. From once in a lifetime comp possibility to - yeah- this guy is special and awesome and just like those other 2 or 3 guys over there in Cleveland and Seattle. Again, this is not saying Correa sucks. I'm betting HOF for him. I'm betting he makes enough money to take care of 100 generations of his family, I just no longer believe he's a lock to get the richest contract in baseball history as I once did. He's failing to hit some of the same notes that the all timers did. That's a big ask.
Bryce Harper posted a .243/.373/.441 OPS in his 5th season, and the world was still on his nuts. Mike Trout had clearly the worst season (relative term) of his career in his 4th year. Career arcs are rarely a straight line. Correa showed world class results last season even if he didn't stay healthy. Hell he could get back to that level this season. He hasn't played up to megastar level just yet, but he also hasn't hit his prime.
Sure. I'm not saying he sucks. I'm not saying he's not a super star. I'm just saying he's not trending as an inner circle HOF guy right now like Trout is. Or before him like AROD did (yes I know PEDS etc). What's your bet on over/under on Correa's next deal? Part of why I'm lowering my outlook is that his lack of playing 162 so far brings into question the wisdom of giving him 12 or 13 years- which is what it would take to get him to $500 million. I set the over under at $350 and am betting the under b/c I see his deal being something like 10 years at $35 per, with an opt out at 3 or 5 years. Sort of like Trout. I thought he might smash the record. As to Harper I see his next deal being pretty similar to what I laid out. I don't see anyone going $400+ for him anymore. I think the Harper/Correa comparison makes some sense from a valuation standpoint. I don't know that Harper bests Trouts deal, and that's with Trout signing early with some buyout years. Wasn't he like 10/330 or something? With an opt out?
So you’re underwhelmed by your own ridiculously high, only 1-2 young players set this precedent in the 200 year history of baseball, type expectations... But you’d easily change your tune if he gets torrid and eventually eclipses last years performance, which did have him on an mvp trend. This is some a+ analysis...
No, that's not at all what I'm saying. I'm saying that as of now he hasn't submitted a monster season, isn't in position to do so this year, and has been dinged up enough so far in his career that I'm betting against him signing the largest contract in baseball history, which I thought was definitely on the table headed into the 2017 season. He's been great. Absolutely great. I don't know that he will be a generational player like I'd originally thought he might be. Cobb Ruth Gehrig Williams Mays/Mantle Aaron (blank in mid 70's to mid 80's) Bonds/Griffey AROD Trout I there was a chance for him to be the greatest player of a decade long type run (or co-staring like Griffey and Mantle). Trout maybe is a bit premature, but that seems like a pretty good stab at a linear progression of all timers throughout baseball history. I thought Correa might be on that list. Now, I think he will merely be the best shortstop of his era. And of course I'm open to changing my tune. Isn't that what reasonable people do? Change their opinion on a subject as data starts to pile up and make their hypothesis seem either more likely to be correct or less likely to be correct?
https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/Astros-Carlos-Correa-not-cleared-activities-13049879.php Still no baseball activities for correa yet. at this point, he should just come back after the all star break, vs the angels on July 20th.
Mike trout in his 4th year had 7.6 bWar. That is close to an MVP caliber year. Comparing anyone even Correa to him would be a disservice to them. He has one of the 5 best starts to a career in MLB history.
Why does any of this arguing matter since he's under club control for another 3 years? He won't accept an extension anyway.
Correa hurt his back way worse than the Astros are letting on. 10 days and still not cleared for baseball activities. That is more than just a muscle that tightened up in his back.
