The NBA Free Agency period is honestly my favorite part of the year. Why has this become such a fascinating time of the year. NBA offseason is the perfect real life application of Game Theory. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory (For those of you unfamiliar, or just need a quick refresher) A perfect example right now is Chris Paul, from everything we heard in the DM and Mike DAntoni presser, Chris is going to be here and is a pivotal part of their offseason planning. So why hasn’t Chris come out and just said, “I’m going to sign with Houston” The obvious answer is, well he wants to at least maintain some leverage for his contract negotiations. While this could be true, I’m sure DM is already prepared to offer him whatever deal Chris wants. So I think the real reason he hasn’t come out and said he is returning to Houston is LeBron. This is where Game Theory comes into play. If LeBron and Chris plan on teaming up in Houston, the best way is through the Opt and Swap, but if that is the only option for lebron, he loses leverage as the Cavs feel like he won’t walk away and they lose him for nothing. However if another option for LeBron is to team up with CP3 in LA, a team that doesn’t need to do a opt and swap, then the Cavs realize that the best option might be to trade lebron to Houston. Of course this LA Laker option is only believable if CP3 hasn’t come out and stated he returning to Houston for sure. CP3 is actually helping LeBron force his way to Houston by pretending he isn’t 100% sure he is staying, and that LA is a possible destination. Furthermor, the DWade piece about “not going to be a basketball choice” is actually another piece of leverage for LeBron leveraging a trade to Houston. It also helps his image, as the narrative becomes more about him wanting to play with his friend Chris, which is a personal goal of LeBron. And less about teaming up with the sole purpose of winning a championship. So some people are saying the LA chatter is a negative, I actually believe this is being done intentionally so that the Cavs believe it’s a real possibility. The only way I think this trade happens for Houston is if the Cavs honestly believe he is planning on going to LA. This sets up the moment when LeBron says yeah I’m planning on LA, but the only other thing I would consider would be a trade to Houston. The Cavs jump at it, they have too or they lose him for nothing, which will drastically slow down their rebuild. So in summation, LA chatter is actually the tool LeBron and friends are using to get to Houston.
The Original Game Theory is much more complicated than that, I have to watch Liar Game. Interesting stuff though.
I enjoy the offseason too and enjoy trying to see people's ideas for how to improve our team and then se how it actually ends up unfolding. That said, the problem with the offseason is trying to differentiate all of the speculation ("I think LeBron should go here because of...") from the fake insiders ("My barber's wife's best friend is LeBron's son's teacher and said..") from the actual legit information or sources.
This could be even more misdirection, especially since it's a "rumor" started by an anonymous reddit user: https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nb...-schools-next-year/ar-AAyrRcl?ocid=spartandhp
Reminds of all the Melo conspiracies threads about leverage against the Knicks, holdout till training camp, read between the lines. etc... And we all saw how poorly that ended. Melo caved in like a b****. Bottom line is LeBron is not even ready to make a decision right now. He's probably taking the next few weeks off like a normal family guy: go on vacation, come back at the end of the month, and just tell his people what's next. If it's Houston, then Morey gets the quiet heads up and we start clearing cap and making phone calls. Unfortunately, these things don't happen with all this advanced game theory stuff you described. There's no real leverage here. Cavaliers are not complete idiots. They've planned for this a year in advance. Just like the Melo situation, Morey is going to have do the other team's homework for them. Cavaliers will want to shed salary and dump contracts in a larger trade possibly involving multiple teams and have Morey find all the suitable partners. That's how this works. It's all hard work and heavy lifting. Last year Morey had the Blazers and/or Suns all lined up for the Melo trade, but then Knicks' last second management change killed the deal. Naturally, Morey backed down, unwilling to add more assets to push it beyond the 2-yard line and into the endzone. The difference this time is Morey would move heaven and earth to land LeBron -- the ultimate prize in Morey's decade long game of flipping assets for superstars. So let's wait until LeBron makes his decision. Then, watch Morey paint his ultimate masterpiece. If you thought last summer's Cash Considerations and non-guaranteed contracts was a genius stroke of salary cap manipulation, wait until you see how this beauty comes together.
Thanks, but the rumor is not strong. Reddit OP deleted his original post. Another reddit rumor interprets Shaq's son saying "I actually know where he's going" to be LA.
OPs entire post and wikipedia link can be summed up in two words: smoke screen. there, i saved everyone a lot of reading.
This was a good post, OP. I will add that LeBron has a certain amount of leverage over Cleveland even with him leaving a second time because of his association with Rich Paul's Klutch sports group. There is also the carrot of James coming back to buy, or run the Cavaliers in the future. Just as Cleveland played ball with Miami, if LeBron truly wants to go elsewhere, I bet they are inclined to help make it happen if they can anything decent in return.
Ah that’s a good point about possible ownership in the future, I agree with you that at the end of the day, teams almost always choose to better themselves then to be bitter and try and screw someone over.
It's also important that Morey has lined these relationships up with Sac, Chi, and others in advance so that he has real leverage because he has a deal for Ryno out there. All of these items remove the Cavs leverage. You can lose LBJ for nothing or a 1st and help with tax and getting more assets.
Does LeBron really need all that to get Cleveland to do what he wants? Honestly they should be eternally indebted to him as he brought them their first title ever and all the good he's done for that city. If they even try to screw him whatsoever it's not gonna end well for them.
I think it’s very necessary. This is last big contract / opportunity to win. Unless of course he opts in one year and we do this again next year. LeBron is also very very smart and calculated.
