For me, the biggest transition from last year is how we are winning. Last year, it was the potent offense that made it seem we were never out of a game because we were so fluent in scoring. This year, we win by preventing runs. Maybe I am just biased towards slug fests over pitching duels, but now I dont have confidence in winning unless we have a big lead late. This is not so much about our pen holding the lead, but rather the ability (inability) to score when needed.
Over the vast history of this game, very rarely has an elite pitching team failed to win a ton of games and not be in the post-season. On the contrary, very rarely has an elite hitting team (with subpar pitching) succeeded and been a playoff team. If you have to choose one (of course all teams would prefer to have both)... you choose the pitching. And as it is... there's a ton of regression to the mean expected for this lineup. The biggest question mark remains Marwin... if he's closer to last year, this is going to be a for-sure elite offense again. If he's closer to his career numbers before last year, they're going to need at least one more piece. He's showing some progress as of late... and the Astros are winning more and more games.
There is a slant towards pitching, but pitching has one problem. It is fickle, and is easier to judge in retrospect. It is much harder to predict pitching as starters get hurt, and most relief pitchers have hot and cold streaks almost randomly. Just last season, the quite possibly the greatest pitching staff in the history of the regular season until 2018 lost in the ALDS as their best ace didn't look good.
https://www.mlb.com/news/astros-rotation-could-rank-among-best-ever/c-277542622 Even better, think about it this way: The entire Astros rotation is striking hitters out like Luis Severino (30.8 percent), allowing the same average as Chris Sale (.188) and limiting slugging like Max Scherzer (.319). That is, of course, ridiculous.
Hitting is definitely fickle from game to game as well. Yes, pitchers can get injured. I also subscribe to "the playoffs are a crapshoot" mindset... but if you want to stack the deck for success, I'd bet on teams pitching their way through the crapshoot, vs hitting through it.
Goes back to "Great Pitching beats great hitting". While I subscribe to it, it certainly can go the other way at times. Often times, what describes "Great Pitching" is more about avoiding bad pitches than throwing light out ones.
Of course. The discussion pertains to how far a great pitching staff alone can get a team. History suggests pretty damn far, regardless of the hitting. Also, still think it’s a major overreaction to the offense. They’re going to hit.
Why does the "cut-off" seem to be 1968 ??..... Lowering of the mound in '69. Interesting that 3 of the 4 previous teams occurred within 2 seasons of each other. Baseball was fed up, then outlawed hand-checking. Astros numbers are extra incredible. We'll see if JV makes a run at Gibson's all-time ERA record (set in '68).
The year of the pitcher in 68 was a joke, it was impossible to hit with an extra high strike zone and higher mound. That season also featured an AL batting champ that only hit .301 and a 30 game winner. The 2018 AL OPS is almost 100 points higher, and teams are averaging a whole extra run compared to then. So yeah, if this rotation end up anywhere close to what they did in 67/68 it will almost certainly be the greatest pitching staff since the dead ball era.
Kinda crazy or scary that those pitching staffs being compared to the current Astros rotation didn't win it all, and the Braves could only win 1 World Series with Glavine, Smoltz, and Maddux. Starting pitching being healthy and pitching longer into games has really worked wonders for them. Something they didn’t have as much last year.
And yet he is still 20th in ERA and 21st in WHIP. Essentially a #2 or #3 on every other team in the AL.
Astros bullpen numbers: McHugh: 17.2 IP .91 WHIP .51 ERA Devenski 17.2 IP .96 WHP 1.53 ERA Peacock 17.2 IP .79 WHIP 2.04 ERA Rondon 15.2 IP 1.15 WHIP 2.30 ERA Harris 15.2 IP 1.21 WHIP 3.45 ERA Giles 15 IP .93 WHIP 3.60 ERA Then Sipp and Smith. It's frankly a pretty dominant bullpen so far. I think Rondon deserves more high leverage opportunities.
