https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=BaseRuns This has record, estimated record based on run differential (Pythagorean), and estimated record based on quality of hits (Base Runs).
Wouldnt this apply to the batting order? Certainly when walks, homers and such happen would change if the batting order did as well, yes?
Teams don't build rosters based on how they expect games to play out, they do so expecting a certain amount of production from each player overall. The Astros expect Correa to hit x number of Home Runs, and yes you want to put the best guys in front of him to maximize those HR's. But when he hits those HR's is kind of random. That one he hit yesterday ended up being meaningless, but if he hits it in another game it could have been pivotal.
So basically, we lose a lot of close games and score big in many of our wins. Basically the opposite of Texas winning all those close games a year or two back, and losing bad in a lot of loses.
I bet there is a way using computer analysis, given what we know has happened to this point, and allow you to model the batting order in any sequence in order to generate the best overall outcome. Sequencing the events that have unfolded differently. Would be interesting to see what the computer came up with.
Batting order affects it a little in that the earlier your better hitters hit, the more good things happen for you. A little sequencing in having guys that can drive ball after on base guys. That said, batting order matters less than most people think as most teams are batting their best 6 hitters in the top 6 spots generally with on base guys before RBI guys. In other words, most teams are good enough at setting a lineup that it cancels out.
Astros do this. Watching every game is this except when Hinch makes a change based on communicating with players (e.g. who's banged up, who is hungover).
I think computer either said move him down or with the way the rest of team was playing that having Springer, Altuve, and Correa consecutive in lineup was better. I suspect Hinch probably over-rode the computer for a little bit though (complete speculation).
Correa's HR yesterday wasn't meaningless, it was "clutch" due to close-and-late statistics -- within three runs, 7th inning or later. We don't know what would've happened if the game remained only a two run difference. One runner reaches base, then the tying run is at the plate.
Its pretty easy to look up the biggest pythagorean discrepancy seasons of all time... there's no real outliers there. Basically, it all evens out over 162 games.... and some of the playoffs if need be.
I was going to post a similar comment. Extending a 2 run lead to 4 at any point in a game is 'clutch'.
Not only that , but should a starter or two fall asleep in the shower and slip in the process, causing a short stint in the dl, McHugh or peacock can step in and not skip a beat. Granted a non serious Injury. :knocks on wood:
what?? sorry you lost me. if you have a chance to add Kershaw you do it. that was the same logic why we added Verlander. Never settle is the motto isn't it?
