https://politicalwire.com/2018/02/27/pa-18-special-election-now-toss/ Cook Political Report: “It’s not normal for Republicans to be worried about losing a seat President Trump carried by 20 points. But with two weeks to go before the March 13 special election, Republican state Rep. Rick Saccone is locked in an extremely close contest against Democratic prosecutor/Marine veteran Conor Lamb, who has significantly outspent him.” “We’re moving the race from Lean Republican to Toss Up.” “What’s made the race so close, many Republicans admit, is that Lamb has simply proven to be a stronger candidate than Saccone.”
Saccone is running an anti-labor union campaign in a district with lots of labor unions that previously endorsed Tim Murphy (the previous Republican Congressman). Seems like a stupid idea to run on right to work laws in a district with Republican leaning labor unions. All the unions switched to supporting Lamb and in a special election with depressed turnout, union organizing becomes even more important.
Looks like this might have to wait until the absentee ballots are tabulated which should be done by midnight.
That's not always true. In states (like Texas) where absentee ballots are restricted, many times those votes will skew Republican. Pennsylvania has similarly restrictive absentee voting. One other factor is whether a political party actively signed people up for absentee voting and chased those ballots. Not sure which party was better at this. With that said, based on the current numbers, I dont think Saccone can overcome the current margin. Although we're in recount territory so this could drag on.
The party of God and morality strikes again. It doesn't matter who wins tonight. The point is an easy GOP district went 50/50 and ends any debate the Dems will flip the House in November. Just a matter of how much.
847 will be hard to overcome - Saccone will need to win like 63% of the outstanding absentee ballots when he has won roughly 55% between the 3 counties and 3200 votes to be counted.....to make up the difference. Pretty tall order. DD
I think Lamb is going to pull this out. We'll see. It's why we vote. I'm assuming that the Russians aren't involved in this special election. If Lamb does win, it is both a huge upset and a repudiation of Mr. trump.
The math isn[t good for Saccone. I guess he can hope to get close enough for a recount to matter but the numbers aren't looking very good.
Saccone has a weak mustache and pronounces his Italian last name the Gringo way. Weak sauce candidate.
We may get a definitive answer around 1am central time. That's when the county clerk of the one outstanding county with absentee votes uncounted estimated they would be finished. An interesting tidbit is that if there is a margin of less than one half of 1%, the state allows a recount. What makes that really interesting? PA's constitution only specifies a recount possibility for statewide elections. If the winner's lead is more than that .5%, no recount at all. If it's less than that, it's not clear that there will be a recount allowed. Sounds like that would end in a legal battle. This is a very close election, folks, and it isn't supposed to be. What is stunning is that this district was strongly for Mr. trump in 2016. He campaigned there for the GOP guy just the other day, praising him and predicting an easy win, yet the vote couldn't be much closer. Definitely a repudiation of trump in what is traditionally a heavily Republican district, and whether the Democrat, Lamb, wins or not, this has to scare the hell out of the leadership of the Republican Party. If Lamb wins? Expect trump, as well has his stable of sycophants, to attack the GOP candidate, the same guy he praised a couple of days ago. It would be typical behavior from the ******* who sometimes resides in the White House. This is very, very encouraging for the Democratic Party in 2018. As a Democrat myself, I'm feeling pretty good about this special election, win or lose. I think Lamb is going to win. As an aside, Lamb is a good looking ex-Marine. He may have a bright political future ahead of him.
