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[538] NBA Championship odds: Warriors fall behind rival Rockets

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Hippieloser, Mar 7, 2018.

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  1. Hippieloser

    Hippieloser Contributing Member

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    This popped into my news feed from AOL, which apparently still exists: https://www.aol.com/article/news/20...-warriors-fall-behind-rival-rockets/23379418/

    You should probably click on that, because I'm sure AOL needs the ad impression revenue. If you can't, though, the headline is about the Rockets taking the lead in FiveThirtyEight's CARM-Elo projections, which currently give the Rockets a 55% chance of making the finals this year, and a 43% chance of winning it all. That's the best odds in the league (GSW have a 32% chance of making the finals. Raptors have a 55% chance of making the finals, but an 18% chance of winning it.)

    Take a look at the odds here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

    Here's a breakdown of how the system calculates its odds:
    There has been much moaning about the media disbelieving that the Rockets can make it all the way. Kind of understandable when measuring the team's recent playoff history against other teams they're likely to face. Well, here's a media outlet specifically dedicated to polling and forecasting, and right now, the data says that the Rockets have the best chance in the entire NBA to win a title this year.

    Perhaps we could discuss exactly how wrong this prediction is and where it fits into the hierarchy of media conspiracy?
     
    #1 Hippieloser, Mar 7, 2018
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  2. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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    Might feel good now. Feels great if we win it all.
     
    #2 Invisible Fan, Mar 7, 2018
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  3. hajkov

    hajkov Consummate Member

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    [obvious "so you say there is a chance" gif here]
     
    #3 hajkov, Mar 7, 2018
  4. topfive

    topfive CF OG

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    I'd feel better about this if FiveThirtyEight.com hadn't given Hillary a 71.4% chance of winning the last election.
     
    #4 topfive, Mar 7, 2018
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  5. tmacfor35

    tmacfor35 Contributing Member

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    Well...the data they were going off was rigged in the election. This data is legit. I hope...
     
    #5 tmacfor35, Mar 7, 2018
    mikol13, rocketsfan611 and topfive like this.
  6. rocketsfan611

    rocketsfan611 Member

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    Let's let the dust fully settle on that occurrence before we try and make any assessments. ;)
     
    #6 rocketsfan611, Mar 7, 2018
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  7. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    Meh, the Rockets actually passed up the Warriors back around the All Star Break in the Carm-ELO projections if I recall correctly.
     
    #7 SamFisher, Mar 7, 2018
  8. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    ballscientist1 suicide watch
     
    #8 ApacheWarrior, Mar 7, 2018
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  9. Slam Dunk

    Slam Dunk Contributing Member

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    Good, I'd rather be the underdogs going into the fight. Let them underestimate us.
     
    #9 Slam Dunk, Mar 7, 2018
  10. jayfree

    jayfree Member

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    We started the season 25-4
    Lost 5 in a row
    Then went on another 25-4 streak.

    CRAZY!

    Those 5 games were when we were missing some players and Harden got injured
     
    #10 jayfree, Mar 7, 2018
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  11. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    Yeah it may say that.

    I have a bad feeling about tonight’s game though. I see a loss coming.

    A long losing streak.

    Dropping to 9th place.

    But we don’t even get the 14th pick this year because of the stupid trade for Chris Paul and giving the 1st round pick away.
     
    #11 peleincubus, Mar 7, 2018
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  12. Elephant810

    Elephant810 Member

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    Im with you, but I highly doubt that the Warriors haven’t taken notice. Im sure they know that beating a healthy Rockets’ team is the championship this season..
     
    #12 Elephant810, Mar 7, 2018
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  13. TheRealAllpro

    TheRealAllpro Morey only fan

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    I'm sorry this is a huge pet peeve of mine. Do you not understand probability. A 29% probability is incrediblely high. And not to mention they said repeatable as a site that Trump could win and on top of that they were castigating sites such a huffington post and The NY Times that had the odds at 98% and 94% respectively. And on top of that they explainined why how the Hilary investigation be Opened again wildly changed the odds at the last minute and polls didn't have time to catch up! They were by far the most accurate poll aggregate site.
     
    #13 TheRealAllpro, Mar 7, 2018
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  14. topfive

    topfive CF OG

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    I get that, but if 29% is "incrediblely high" then 71% is still much higher odds. And yes, almost everyone predicted wrong that night. I'm just saying that you can't put your hopes on a site with fallible statistical models.
     
    #14 topfive, Mar 7, 2018
  15. Fyreball

    Fyreball Contributing Member

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    In Soviet Russia, data rigs you!
     
    #15 Fyreball, Mar 7, 2018
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  16. Swiss Roll

    Swiss Roll Member

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    The LA times seemed to do the best polling job for the election if I recall, showing a late break for trump shortly before the election while hack sites other news outlets like the Huffington Post predicted "98% chance of victory" for clinton.

    538 is kind of a joke though, I remember all the nate silver memes after the election.
     
    #16 Swiss Roll, Mar 7, 2018
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  17. Hippieloser

    Hippieloser Contributing Member

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    The memes came before the election, when everyone thought Silver was wildly overestimating Trump's odds. After the election, it was crickets.

    In any case, the election forecast was based on polling, which appears to be increasingly useless. This forecast is not. Sure, it's just a forecast—CARM-Elo is not a magic fortune teller. I think it beats the eye test, however. It's an indicator that the Rockets may have a little more history and probability on their side than just "what happened last season."
     
    #17 Hippieloser, Mar 7, 2018
  18. Hippieloser

    Hippieloser Contributing Member

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    Yes dude BUT AOL
     
    #18 Hippieloser, Mar 7, 2018
  19. FTW Rockets FTW

    FTW Rockets FTW Contributing Member

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    Err thing is about politics

    Some of y'all need to g et a life
     
    #19 FTW Rockets FTW, Mar 7, 2018
  20. donkeypunch

    donkeypunch Contributing Member

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    No....

    Putin is a warriors fan????

    I understand hes always searching for anything to start a fight and be a warrior but I figured we wouldve edged them by being Rockets......
     
    #20 donkeypunch, Mar 7, 2018
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