I honestly think Altuve is the only current player Houston will resign in free agency: McCann is old and declining. Resigning him would require him to be willing to shift to a backup role (and accept the associated pay cut). Gattis is getting old and was never a very good defensive catcher. Combine that with the internal options for future DH and I don’t see a fit. Gurriel is old. By the time his contract runs out he may not be any good. Correa is on track to command the largest player contract in sports history. Houston can’t afford that. Bregman is an option but he’s 5 years away from free agency so it’s not worth speculating. Marwin will either match last season (in which case he will be expensive) or regress (in which case he will not be good). He may have a better chance of staying with Houston than most because it may just work out that Houston values him more than other teams; his friendship with Altuve helps. Reddick will be old when his contract runs out and there are too many internal options on the way. Springer is likely to be a very expensive player and Houston has internal options on the way. But next to Altuve he may have the best chance. Marisnick will be looking for an everyday role. Stassi and Fisher are 6 years away from free agency. Houston won’t give a big long contract to an aging pitcher, so that knocks out Keuchel and Verlander. They won’t give a big long contract to a pitcher with injury risk so that knocks out McCullers. I expect Morton to retire. If Cole has major success then Houston may try to resign him. McHugh and Peacock will be looking for more prominent roles/$ than Houston can offer. All the old bullpen guys (Smith, Rondon, Harris, Sipp) will be declining. Devenski and Giles will be interesting to watch but both may be likely to go to a team willing to pay them top closer dollars.
Exactly. Look, I'm as excited about him as I've been for all the top promoted prospects (Correa, Bregman, Springer)... and in another time (2014, ahem), I'd be banging the drum for him to be on the opening day roster ad-nauseum. This team doesn't necessarily have that sort of "problem". He'll get a chance to ease into the big leagues at age 20, starting around June/July of this year if everything continues to look good. But penciling him in at the moment to replace established vets doesn't make a lot of sense.
Correa is also revenue. He sells tickets. Astros will pay him 35-40 million a year, there will likely be OPT OUTS after certain years... with pay bumps every year. Maybe a big signing bonus. Again, Altuve/Correa are a package deal. Best buds. I can't fathom the Astros FO letting him go and upsetting the entire fan base. Always a chance, but also just as likely Trout leaves. I can't fully agree with your sentiment.
Career OPS prior to last season was .680. Tell you what, if Marwin has at least 300 plate appearances with the Astros in the 2018 regular season and an OPS of .738 or better (lifetime is .738 after last season) I’ll add more to my supporting status. If his OPS is .737 or less, you become a supporting member. Deal?
Kyle Tucker is the future 1st baseman. He reminds me so much of Cody Bellinger. AJ Reed at best is DH..
Why is he the future 1B when he has always been an outfielder? He has the arm and athleticism to play a quality RF.
Overly pessimistic in my opinion. I believe they will offer Altuve and Correa as much as anybody else. Unless Correa is determined to play for the Yankees he is an Astro for life, so is Altuve. Bregman I believe will be re-signed as well. DK walks after this year. Verlander will probably retire after next year. If Cole and McCullers perform and stay healthy I believe the Astros will re-sign. Projected rotation in a few years: Cole, McCullers, Whitley, Martres, Armenteros. Closer: one of our other minor league studs or trade for another reasonable contract. This team is built to be ultra competitive for a decade. My only concern is catcher and is why I am a big proponent of going after Realmuto. Projected line-up 2020: Springer CF Fisher Lf Altuve 2b Correa SS Tucker RF Bregman 3B Stassi C White 1B/DH Utility Alverez 1B Bench: Gonzalez, Gurriel, Nova Cole McCullers Whitley Matres Armenteros Peacock Devinski Giles if not too expensive. Who knows on rest. Trust Luhow to build back up. I believe either Davis or White will be traded this year. I believe Mchugh will be traded traded this year. Gonzalez will be re-signed if he is affordable which he probably will be because I think he will regress. I think Marisnick is gone this year or next.
Oh really? Surprised they haven't started giving him reps at 1B yet... At least the hot take alert is in mid-season form.
Agree with a lot of what you said but as another poster pointed out I think this is a bit pessimistic. I’d be willing to bet my house we resign more than just Altuve - almost certain one of Springer and Correa will resigned. Just think about the logic behind what you just said (only think Altuve will be resigned) - how are they going to get to $150M+ in payroll if they don’t resign anyone besides Altuve?
They’re at $150M right now without any $150M+ contracts on their books. Of course the new CBA in 2021 could dramatically change everything. A salary cap or max contract limitation would drastically increase the odds of Houston signing more members of their current core (namely Correa, Bregman, and McCullers). But for now I just don’t see how they could swing more than one gargantuan deal, and Altuve makes by far and away the most sense as the one guy they should retain, due to timing, his value on the field, his value to Houston relative to other teams, and his value off the field. Another reason for my “pessimism” is that I think Houston will continue to have a productive farm, which lessens the need to retain players. Tucker has certainly made the potential loss of Springer in 3 years a little less scary. If Nova hits his ceiling he would make the prospect of losing Correa less disastrous, and so on. And that goes doubly for the pitching staff as I think Houston will be stellar at developing top pitchers from lesser heralded prospects. I think Houston will do everything necessary to be a World Series favorite through 2021, at which point they will reassess and determine whether to resign guys or rebuild. But by then most of the guys on the current roster will be gone. 2021 projection: C TBD (2nd tier free agent or trade acquisition) 1B Reed (or Davis, etc.) 2B Altuve (re-signed as free agent) SS Correa 3B Bregman RF Tucker CF TBD (2nd tier free agent or trade acquisition) LF Fisher DH Alvarez Bench: TBD utility (maybe Marwin), Stassi, Straw Rotation: Whitley, McCullers, Martes, Bukauskas, TBD Bullpen: 3-4 arms currently on the farm, 2-3 free agents, Devenski, Giles
By the time Correa is a FA, correct me if I’m wrong but won’t Gurriel, McCann, Verlander and several others be “off the books”?
Yes. Not sure your point, but those guys really aren’t making that much. Houston is only paying $20M for Verlander. NY is covering some of McCanns deal and Gurriel is only making $12M (and his salary declines each year moving forward). There are a lot of players coming off the books between now and then. But those guys will need to be replaced, some via free agency. And the current guys on minimum deals will be more expensive via arbitration. So while there will be some money available (which is why I’m optimistic about them keeping Tuve) I just don’t think they will have the money to keep 2+ guys each making $35M+/yr. I hope I’m wrong and any number of things happens: the CBA implements changes that make it easier for mid-tier payroll teams to retain their free agent stars The free agent market continues to fall short of player expectations so more guys re-sign to avoid the disappointment Houston can sustain a higher payroll than I am estimating
Before you crown AJ Reed the next starting 1B, it would be nice if he could get a hit in spring training first.
