Ellsbury is a 20 million dollar anchor a year on the Yankees. It is much easier to get a Robertson than get rid of Ellsbury in this climate. Marisnick has been about as good a hitter as Ellsbury over last 3 years with a huge edge defensively on a per plate appearance basis. Absolutely no chance Ellsbury is an Astro next season. Luhnow can do so much more with $68 million than Ellsbury.
Astros Cole McCutchen Pirates McHugh Fisher Nova Celestino Astros upgrade. Pirates don't completely close door on wild card (i.e., it is possible McHugh and Fisher have good years) and pick up 3 prospects. Pretty sure neither team would do it, but wanted to propose something that tried to fit Pirates desire to get younger, but not give up.
Pretty sure that Martes and Bukauskas would have to be in that deal. I'm not sure 2 years of Cole is worth that haul.
Seems like a pretty fair value deal, but I think both sides would prefer the prospects going back to be closer to the majors. Houston because they have so many blocked prospects and Pittsburgh because they have a potential core already close to the majors. So sub Moran for Nova and that’s a deal I think both sides would go for.
Highly doubt Pirates would want Moran over Nova. Astros would prefer to keep people players they plan to use unless prospect in lower levels is worth a lot more as is the case with Nova. Astros may be more willing to trade the true extras like Kemp and Reed, but then those guys aren't worth much right now.
So have the Astros offered Reed for Yelich? After tonight, you just never know what the other team will do.
Couple of trade ideas to finish out the offseason: Astros get: RP Zach Britton RP Chris Lee RP Hunter Harvey Orioles get: SP Collin McHugh Astros get: C JT Realmuto Marlins get: OF Derek Fisher SP Francis Martes SP JB Bukauskas
25 MAN ROSTER INFIELD Gurriel Altuve Correa Bregman Marwin OUTFIELD Springer Reddick Fisher Marisnik CATCHER McCann Gattis STARTING PITCHERS Verlander Keuchel McCullers Cole Morton LONG RELIEF / FILL-IN STARTERS Peacock McHugh Martes RELIEF PITCHERS Devenski Harris Rondon Smith Giles These are the guys that are guaranteed to make the 25 man roster. 11 position players and 13 pitchers. This assumes Sipp is DFA'd, which should be a forgone conclusion at this point. Not sure what to do with McHugh. While I like the luxury of a pitcher of his caliber being available to step in for an injury, it feels like a waste to have him riding the bench and blocking the development of young prospects. My gut says we keep him, at least until mid-season. Perhaps we can rebuild his value some after an injury riddled 2017. That leaves us with 1 open spot. Here's where I think we should get aggressive. Christian Yelich is perfect for this club. Young, proven stud. Great defensively, solid offensively and a lefty bat. He is what we HOPE Tucker will become, and he's locked up for the next 5 years on a very reasonable deal. Here's the offer: Tucker OR Alvarez, Paulino and Fisher for Yelich. From Miami's perspective, I don't think they will get a better offer. Plenty of controllable, high-end talent. For Houston, you keep one high upside outfielder in your system (Tucker or Alvarez), and you still have all of Whitley, Martes and Bukauskas. Yelich becomes your gold glove CF, Springer moves back to RF and Reddick goes to LF. This still leaves one spot open, since you moved Fisher out and added Yelich. Still like the idea of Watson as a quality lefty reliever, which we don't have right now. Lineup becomes: RF Springer 3B Bregman 2B Altuve SS Correa LF Reddick 1B Gurriel CF Yelich DH Gattis/Marwin C McCann
I don't think he's known to be that great of defensively in center; at least not GG quality. I wouldn't mind trying to acquire him though. Him or Realmuto would be great
I could see Luhnow trading for a catcher before Opening Day. Particularly if he's not satisfied with the quality of the 2019 FA class. Clearly, McCann is getting old; Gattis is probably not expected to make great strides in pitch blocking; and Stassi has yet to prove himself at the ML level. Unless Stubbs and Stassi really shine in spring training, it may make sense to trade for Realmuto. My guess is that if the Stros trade for a LF, it will only be mid-season and only if Fisher isn't hitting at least .730 OPS by the All Star break. Tucker will be fun to see in spring training but I don't expect him to get called up to MMP until September, if at all this year. Likewise at DH, any trade would probably only come in July, and only if both Gattis and White fall on their faces. Gattis' splits as C vs DH were huge last year (OPS of .580 as DH vs .878 as C). So he will have to show that he can hit in spite of not playing a position on the field. If he isn't doing that after 150 PA's or so, I wouldn't be surprised to see White in as the primary DH. He hit for an OPS of .898 at AAA last season and that fell all the way to .853 during his 67 ML plate appearances. He looked much improved over his 2016 game. If Gattis doesn't bring the magic, the solution may be right there in Brian Tyler White and not some expensive trade/FA acquisition.
If your second proposed trade were to become reality, who would you envision playing LF? A Marwin/Marisnick platoon? As far as I'm aware, Jon Kemmer is still on the Fresno roster. Do you think Kemmer would see time at MMP if Fisher is traded? I'm just trying to figure out who is next up in the Astros' system in terms of outfielders. Alejandro Garcia looked good in spring training last year so I don't know if he might be in the mix.
They’d need to get someone, likely a 2nd or 3rd free agent like Carlos Gonzalez, Curtis Granderson, Jon Jay, Logan Morrison, Jarrod Dyson, Cameron Maybin, Adam Lind, Austin Jackson, Ichiro, or Melky Cabrera. That would bridge the gap until the 2nd half of the season when Kyle Tucker could come up if needed. If Fisher is traded, the Astros AAA OF would likely be Jon Kemmer, Drew Ferguson, and Alejandro Garcia. But I wouldn’t be surprised if they went out and signed an Alex Presley type for depth, and also could see them giving guys like JD Davis and Jon Singleton some time in LF. My current AAA roster projection: C Stubbs 1B Reed 2B Kemp SS Mayfield 3B Davis RF Kemmer CF Ferguson LF Garcia DH White Bench: Singleton, Fedorowicz, DeGoti Rotation: Martes, Paulino, Rodgers, Armenteros, Deetz Bullpen: Thornton, Hoyt, Gustave, Guduan, McCurry, Ramsay, Dorris, Nunn Inactive/Released: Thome, Sneed, Emanuel, Hauschild, Winkelman
Playing for fun and I'm interested in people's comments and thoughts if this is too much to give up or not enough. Astros: Christian Yelich JT Realmuto Marlins: Kyle Tucker Derek Fisher Frances Martes AJ Reed Collin McHugh Astros get a rising star in Christian Yelich and can let him play CF, move Springer back to RF and Reddick to Left. He also has a team friendly deal and is not a free agent until 2023. Astros also get their catcher of the future and insurance for when Gattis and McCann become free Agents and JT is not a free agent until 2021. Marlins get Kyle Tucker who is a top 10 prospect in MLB. Derek Fisher, Frances Martes, AJ Reed and Collin Mchugh can be placed on their active roster and can start right away. Collin McHugh is also a trade candidate if her performs well for another team at the trade deadline.
Replace Reed and McHugh with Stassi and Paulino and I think you’re there. Miami has Bour and no DH, so they have no need for Reed. McHugh is wasted on their roster unless they are treating him as a Fiers type, which undervalues him. The Marlins need prospects. The more I think about it, the more I’d like Houston to forget about Yelich and see if there’s any way they can get Realmuto without giving up Tucker or Whitley. Catcher is the real need; if Houston has Tucker (or if Fisher reaches his ceiling) then they don’t need Yelich. If Fisher, Martes, Paulino, Stassi, and H Perez would be enough for Realmuto, Id love that deal for Houston. But Miami would be wise to hold out for an elite prospect like Whitley or Tucker; Realmuto is a Top 5 C in the game under long term cheap control and there’s bound to be a team out there (Nats, Braves, Mets, a few others) willing to give it up.
