If the Astros were trading Dallas Keuchel (which they're not, but lets just presume so for the sake of argument)... what would you want in return? This is right now, 2 years post-Cy Young, with some injury concerns and one year away from free agency. I suggest you then take that perceived value... and use that as a relative guide to assess what the Pirates "should" want in return for a 200 inning/year former #1 pick pitcher with 2 more years of club control.
Great point, and a great perspective. I would still think a return of Fisher and Moran for two years of a good (was way better two years ago, more average now, but still a talented arm nonetheless) starting pitcher on a team that is in a desperate need to rebuild. For the Pirates, they can use Fisher to replace McCutchen after they trade him. And Colin Moran could be their opening day 3B, as Kang's MLB career appears to be over. I think this would be a very solid deal for both sides.
Using the Sonny Gray trade as a model involving what a progressive team gives up for 2-2.5 years of club control for a non-ace, but great pitcher, I doubt all three of Fisher, Alvarez, and Martes would be in the deal.
I just think you're overrating two players who haven't proven anything at the MLB level. The Pirates are rebuilding, yes.... so they're either going to want young MLB guys who have shown something, or more high upside minor leaguers. Moran is more AAAA than young prospect with upside. Fisher looks the part of somebody ready to make it in the big leagues... minus the fact that he can't field (not a great aspect in a non DH league).
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/gerrit-coles-crucial-pivot/ Not sure if already posted but Fangraphs had a good article on Cole:
I'll agree that it is very well possible that I am overrating those two. What I do know is that we have all the leverage in this situation, so we are in the position of strength in these talks. Either the Pirates trade Cole, or they pay him about $8M and $10M over the next two years to pitch for a bad team. They have every right to ask for a Gleyber Torres or a Kyle Tucker, but I just don't feel that they will get close to that asking price.
