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[Official] Astros Offseason Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Castor27, Nov 2, 2017.

  1. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    'Pen upgrade is Astros' top Meetings priority
    Luhnow, front office also in market for left fielder, starter

    By Brian McTaggart / MLB.com | @brianmctaggart | December 5th, 2017

    HOUSTON -- How does the best team in baseball get better? That's the challenge for Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow and his staff when baseball's annual Winter Meetings get underway Monday in Lake Buena Vista, Fla. The Meetings conclude with the Rule 5 Draft on Dec. 14.

    The Astros went into the Winter Meetings a year ago having finished their offseason heavy lifting, but a shorter offseason this year on the heels of their first World Series championship means there's still work to be done. The club's biggest task is clear: Add relief pitching.

    "We've got some guys at the top of our list that we've been checking in on," Luhnow said Friday. "Right now, the market is stalled and there's really nothing happening. We're going to be opportunistic. Last year was a little different for us. We targeted very specific players. We went out and were aggressive and got them early.

    "This year, the market is behaving differently and we're behaving differently as well. There's no rhyme or reason to it. We know what we need and we're going to be opportunistic. There's quite a few good options out there for the things we're looking for. Whether it happens early or late, something will happen before Spring Training."

    While left-handed relief pitching appears to be the Astros' biggest need, Luhnow said upgrading the bullpen as a whole is the priority.

    "It's really about finding the best upgrades to our pitching staff that we can find to give us the depth and quality that we need to get through a long season and hopefully another long postseason," Luhnow said. "We're not specifically focusing on one hand or another."

    Club needs

    Bullpen
    The way manager A.J. Hinch handled the bullpen in the postseason -- often using starters in relief -- is an indication of the trust the Astros have in their bullpen overall. Ken Giles will return as closer after a shaky postseason, along with steady Will Harris and Chris Devenski. Joe Musgrove could continue to be a bullpen weapon, as could converted starter Brad Peacock, but the Astros have a need for some more arms, especially left-handers.

    Left field
    Marwin Gonzalez started in left field during the postseason, but his strength is moving around and starting at different positions. The Astros have an opening for a left fielder who could play alongside George Springer and Josh Reddick in the outfield, with Jake Marisnick as a backup. Derek Fisher may be ready to fill that void, but expect the Astros to explore and see who's available on other teams or free agency.

    Starting pitching
    Yes, the Astros have a wealth of starting pitching with Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr., Charlie Morton, Collin McHugh and Peacock all coming back. As we saw this past season, injuries can really take a toll, so having another solid starter wouldn't hurt. Not that the Astros are going to be in the market for any of the big free-agent names like Jake Arrieta, but adding another arm could allow them to move Peacock to the bullpen, too.

    Who they can trade if necessary

    RHP Michael Feliz
    Feliz has shown spurts where he's been dominant, but he has yet to put it all together. He struggled to find consistency last year despite striking out 70 batters in 48 innings.

    RHP Francis Martes
    Martes flashed strikeout stuff in his Major League debut this past year, but he struggled to find the strike zone too often. Martes is barely 22 years old, but he might not be the untouchable prospect he was a year ago.

    OF Fisher
    Fisher struck out 54 times in 146 at-bats in his big league debut this past year coming off a stellar Triple-A season. His speed-power combination makes him attractive.

    1B A.J. Reed
    It's too late for the Astros to deal the slugger and get the kind of value they could have gotten two offseasons ago. Reed didn't show well in his big league debut in 2016, and he had only six big league at-bats this past year.

    F/OF Tony Kemp
    Kemp can do a lot of things well, but he might not have enough impact to crack the Astros' talented roster on a long-term basis. That makes him a trade chip.

    Top prospects

    Per MLBPipeline.com, the Astros' top prospects are outfielder Kyle Tucker, right-handers Forrest Whitley and J.B. Bukauskas, outfielder/first baseman Yordan Alvarez, infielder Colin Moran, right-hander David Paulino and left-hander Cionel Perez. Tucker and Whitley are both 20, and they performed well at Double-A to end the season. Luhnow has said Whitley could be in the big leagues next year. Bukauskas, their first-round Draft pick in 2017, could be on a fast track to the big leagues.

    Rule 5 Draft

    There are 38 players on the Astros' 40-man roster, so there's space if the team wants to take a shot at a player in the Rule 5 Draft. Considering the depth of the roster, it would seem hard to fathom that they'd be able to carry a Rule 5 selection on their big league roster all season.

    Big contracts they might unload

    None, really. The Astros plan to keep their team intact for 2018 and make a run at another World Series championship.

    Payroll summary

    Astros owner Jim Crane has said repeatedly the club will spend money when it counts, and he's opened the wallet the past two years with the signings of Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Beltran and Reddick and the trades for Brian McCann and Verlander. The payroll figures to be in the $150 million range, which is still in the middle of the pack, but they'll have some big free-agent decisions to make after next season with Keuchel and Gonzalez.
     
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  2. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    The 4 guys I’m locked in on next week are Lucroy, Granderson, Nicasio, and McGee. I think Nicasio and Granderson could represent excellent values while Lucroy and McGee could fill the glaring holes without much downside.

    Overall the list of presumably available players I think could improve Houston’s roster of the price is right:

    Free Agents:
    LF: Cain, Martinez, Bruce, CarGo, Jay, Granderson
    DH/1B: Santana, Hosmer, Duda, Morrison, Alonso, N Walker, Frazier
    C: Lucroy, Avila, Iannetta
    Other: Cozart, Moustakas
    SP: Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb, Lynn, Pineda
    RP: Davis, Shaw, Swarzak, Morrow, Nicasio, Reed, Holland, Rodney, Cishek, Rondon
    RP: McGee, Watson, Logan

    Trade targets:
    C: Perez, Realmuto, Ramos, J McCann
    DH/1B: Votto, Abreu, Cabrera, Bour, Belt
    LF: Ozuna, Gordon, Yelich, McCutchen, Dickerson, Garcia, Pence, Castellanos, Ellsbury
    SP: DeGrom, Cole, Archer, Stroman, Fulmer
    RP: Brach, Iglesias, Ziegler, Colome, Herrera, N Jones
    RP: Britton, Hand, Alexander, Jennings

    Houston has some good MLB-ready trade chips they could use to get what they need without giving up their elite younger prospects:

    Martes
    Fisher
    Moran
    Paulino
    Feliz
    Reed

    They could trade all 6 of those guys and still have decent AAA depth on the 40 man (White, Kemp, Davis, Hoyt, Rodgers, Deetz, C Perez, Gustave, Guduan)
     
  3. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Of those trade targets, Realmuto, Ozuna, and Yelich standout as the position players that may fit in the Astros budget, may be traded, and likely provide a lot of surplus value. Granted, Astros would likely have to trade a lot of prospect value to get them (i.e., likely more than it would take to get Stanton, but never know with Jeter).
     
  4. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    If they can keep Fisher in AAA as insurance, I like the idea of adding a guy on the backside of his career who won’t cost much and will be a good clubhouse influence. Granderson, Gordon, Pence, and Ellsbury fit that mold. None of those guys would cost much in terms of prospects or money, all of them have some measure of upside as an everyday LF and may get rejuvenated by the chance to win it all and be surrounded by a stacked lineup. If they bust, Marisnick, Marwin, and Fisher would dramatically reduce the downside.

    From the Marlins, I don’t see anyway Houston could get Yelich or Realmuto without giving up Whitley or Tucker, but Ozuna only has 1 year left and I could see him being available for a package built around Martes and Fisher.
     
    #864 Snake Diggit, Dec 6, 2017
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2017
  5. Mr.Pringles

    Mr.Pringles Member

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    Offseason Wishlist

    1) Astros sign LHRP Jake McGee and/or Tony Watson

    2) Astros sign RHRP Steve Cishek or Brandon Morrow

    3) Astros trade Francis Martes, Derek Fisher, Michael Feliz, David Paulino, Max Stassi, AJ Reed and Tony Sipp (add any top 10 prospects not named Whitley or Tucker to sweeten the deal if need be) to Miami for LF (and LH bat) Christian Yelich and C J.T. Realmuto

    4) Jose Altuve extension

    I’m fine waiting to the deadline for a closer and letting Giles get a shot. Luhnow says Whitley could be up in 2017 and either he or McCullers could be a fine postseason closer.
     
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  6. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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  7. zeeshan2

    zeeshan2 Member

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  8. zeeshan2

    zeeshan2 Member

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  9. The Cat

    The Cat Contributing Member

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  10. zeeshan2

    zeeshan2 Member

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    he was pretty bad in texas; radio guys kept saying he couldn't frame pitches anymore
     
  11. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Hard to read too much into that. Pitch framing is still a pretty subjective analysis.
     
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  12. awc713

    awc713 Member

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    And Rangers pitching is like Dallas BBQ
     
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  13. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    A quick look at the 12 position players the Astros broke camp with in 2017, plus early 2018 projection:

    Position20172018
    CMcCannMcCann
    1GurrielGurriel
    2AltuveAltuve
    SSCorreaCorrea
    3BregamnBregamn
    LFAoki???
    CFSpringerSpringer
    RFReddickReddick
    C2GattisGattis
    IFMarwinMarwin
    OF4MarisnickMarisnick
    OF5Beltran???
    There are two spots to fill.

    I have listed Marwin as the one and only backup IF, but he likely starts most games in LF, DH, or IF.

    The Astros are high on Fisher, so he might already be a lock for Luhnow.

    If the Astros never want to see Gattis catch again (maybe a fan only opinion), Gattis would only see time at the DH, which does not seem all that likely. If the Astros are really going to carry another C2, trading Gattis is a real possibility. My bet is that Gattis returns as the DH/C2.

    The last roster spot comes down to Moran, White, Reed, etc.
     
    #873 No Worries, Dec 7, 2017
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2017
  14. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    No respect for the reigning AL MVP, Jose Altuve.
     
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  15. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    I gotta my fire proofreader. I'll get right on that.
     
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  16. Fyreball

    Fyreball Contributing Member

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    Is Lucroy still listed as the #1 hitter by average on the Astros website?? Looks like some intern jumped the gun on that lol.
     
  17. DaChamp

    DaChamp Member

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    I do think that Gattis will be taking Beltran's DH spot with Fisher/Marisnick splitting the 3rd/4th outfield spot. Stassi would then be the backup catcher. The Astros need to see if Stassi is a legitimate alternative to filling in once McCann's contract is up, which will most likely be after 2018. Stassi, of course, would be the cheapest alternative, and this front office loves to get a good value. The only way to figure out if he is viable is to give Stassi a significant amount of plate appearances this year. He's had only 90 plate appearances in the majors -- a lot of scouts say that they like to see 700+ plate appearances to get a an idea on whether a guy will be an everyday player for the long term. For context, I believe JD Martinez had 800 plate appearances before he was cut. Also (and not to cast doubt on the Astros intent here), I don't think the Astros want McCann's option to vest in 2019, which it will if he gets 1000 plate appearances or catches 90 games. Another reason to give Stassi a lot of games/plate appearances.
     
  18. leroy

    leroy Contributing Member

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    Well, I certainly feel comfortable about McCann not getting 1,000 plate appearances. That would be freakin nuts because it would mean they went to a 250 game season and he hit leadoff in every one.
     
  19. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    It isn't an or, it is an and. McCann's option won't be vesting.
     
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  20. DaChamp

    DaChamp Member

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    Sorry, typo on my part -- McCann's option will vest with 1000 plate appearances between 2017-2018, i.e., over two seasons. He had 400 plate appearances in 2017, so he would need 600 in 2018.
     

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