Just due to analysis and probabilities, one of the best in that regard can be found here: https://twitter.com/ToneVays His most recent video on the btc price:
Thanks for info. He is predicting a $1,500 drop in the next few days. Have a hard time seeing that without a major event causing it, but you never know in the cryptoworld!
In my brief crypto-experience, Bitcoin has only crashed after reaching a new ATH coupled with a FUD event. The last two examples: the August/September high of almost $5k, followed by the China ban and the price dropping below $4k. the October/November high of ~$7,800K, followed by the attack on the network by BCH and the uncertainty of "the real bitcoin," which dropped price to ~$5,500K. This is why I was struggling to see another re-trace to $5500K without a big event pushing it. I think you have been in this space longer than I have, so you might be able to rattle examples of the above that do not conform to my theory. Now with that said -- Bitcoin's ATH was largely due to the Segwit2x hard fork and people climbing over each other to own a piece for the "free money." What will it take for a new ATH this time? Bitcoin Silver?
Livestream on right now: But yea, Silver fork will be coming in December and a ton of people predict upwards to 10k by the end of this year.
Alright boys, it's time we make some money. Bitcoin has been consolidating around $7200k for a few days, and then around $7400k yesterday. It has finally broke through the $7500k resistance and is inching up again to its previous ATH. Do you expect it to reach a new ATH on this push? If not, what's your exit price? If so, what's your exit price? I'm going to try to trail it by a few hundred with S/L in case it dumps, then buy back cheaper and pick up some extra BTC. EDIT: smashing into $7700K resistance.. will it break?
Trusting some of the greater minds, people see very little reason for it to dump now that it broke 7.5k. You might not see a significant retrace until it hits 10k. Bought some more at 7.2k yesterday and am glad I did.
That's not really how the crypto market works though, the technical aspects you mentioned are already represented in the current pricing. Many experts (I always trust Tone Vays a lot) see it like I do, the alt market is in a huge bubble and all of these coins are right now only existing because people think they'll become a true alternative or better version of bitcoin. Bitcoin has by far the best development team and has a huge first-mover advantage, so it'll likely be around when 99% of all other Altcoins are dead. Seeing the current development on bitcoin, there's little doubt that they'll work out better transaction times and other infancy issues, so there'll literally be zero reason for 99% of the other alts to exist. Look at litecoin for example. Bitcoin is already working on lightning network and more confidential transactions, so what reason will there be for litecoin to exist when that happens? Investors and businesses will nearly always go with the established route, which is why you see btc still sh***ng on alts these past few months, despite news of a ton of businesses and investors going into crypto. Sure, you'll maybe make a lot of money short-term by trading alts, but long-term bitcoin is the only logical hold. There's no need for similar coins when the original one works, the altcoin market is just riding on the btc wave for now and will have a rude awakening.
Like the guy who predicted it would be $5,500 today? Haha just kidding -- this area is almost impossible to predict accurately consistently. I don't really see any event pushing it right now -- no HF scheduled or pending -- perhaps just new money investing? Hopefully, that would be the ideal reason. I wasn't necessarily expecting a big dump -- was more thinking if it bounces from 7600 to 7200, I can sell @ 7500 and buy in again for ~$7200.. pick up an extra G or two and use that to increase my bag. I got extremely lucky and sold last run @ $7,700 (almost literal top) -- but I couldn't follow my own advice (weak hands got me) and got impatient and bought back in @ $7,200 a few days later. S/L'd at $6800, bought back in again @ $6,750 and hoping to lock in profits on this. I agree with all of this, but especially ^. Trade alts to increase your BTC supply. At the end of the day, BTC is king -- even Litecoin acknowledges that. Litecoin's plan is to pick up the scraps Bitcoin can't handle. CAVEAT: $ltc & $eth (@rezdawg mentioned) are two of the biggest (read: safest) alts to be invested in. Both also have USD pairs, so you can make money holding those without worrying about the BTC Ratio. The problem with other coins is you have to rely on the BTC ratio to ever cash out -- and in the limited time I've been in this space, Bitcoin has outpaced almost every single altcoin. Your coin could go up in value USD wise, but lose value on the BTC ratio. Which I guess should even out some if the BTC price jumps more (ie, you bought litecoin for .01 BTC, its now worth .009 BTC, but price of BTC rose so much that it's actually worth more.) I say that and I am of course not following my own advice -- hopped on the #zcoin train to see if I can profit from the znode.
First: Bitcoin Silver fork will happen in December and many others are scheduled for 2018. Also, there's a lot of recent investor news plus Bitcoin Futures coming, which will make bitcoin a big player on Wall Street and other big exchanges. The past days have shown some significant investors acquiring btc, many traditional investors are lining up to get into bitcoin now. With BCH failing at their rebellion and these good news, there's virtually no resistance for the rest of this year.
I don't think the next hard fork has been scheduled? I read articles re: Bitcoin Silver at the end of October, but as best as I know, it has not been finalized and set to fork at a certain block. Of course that doesn't mean it couldn't still happen in December. Have seen varying takes on CME futures -- will decrease volatility but in same vein keep price more in check. I hope it doesn't, the opportunity to make money in a volatile market like this is huge. I forget which app, but one of them just opened up buying and selling bitcoin to their users. Might rival Coinbase, but it's just starting. DOWN GOES $7,700!!!! Let's goooooo
We'll have to keep tabs on it. http://www.newsbtc.com/2017/11/16/forking-hell-theres-lot-hard-forks-coming-bitcoin/ Based on history of past forks, I will be selling off a few days before any scheduled fork. Take the profits, let them keep the coin that is being spun off to create money.
We should come up with our own btc clone, it's amazing how many idiots buy into these p&d schemes. Let's call it Bitcoin Decentralized ClassicGoldCoin or something.
But at the end of the day, if you have an altcoin and $1,000,000 worth of it... You still get ~$1,000,000 worth of BTC when exchanging it, so the ratio doesn't seem to play that large of a role from what I understand.
As he said, it depends on how btc spiked. In the bad case, your ALT/USD value rose, but at the same time btc outperformed your alt. So when you then proceed to convert your alt back into btc, you actually lost btc overall.
Just saw this. Know your introduction to Tone Vays was bad, but he's holding seminars worldwide and has a ton of connections in the industry. On a recent podcast, he said he knows more than a hundred investors and developers who're saying ETH is "garbage" and only exists for political reasons. I heard similar sentiments all over the web, especially that ETH isn't secure (there have been huge concerns in recent months and no real solutions shown) and extremely convoluted, which makes it nearly impossible to use in the future.
I think I actually follow Tone Vays -- he seems to be pretty well known on crypto-twitter. I enjoy @CarpeNoctom's commentary a lot as well. I have heard the same regarding ethereum. A lot of negativity around the coin -- security issues with coins being stolen, the most recent they knew about and still didn't fix. Seems like the people I follow on crypto-twitter **** on it a lot. I think the fallout with ICOs has contributed to ETH's perception as well. As a cautionary tale.. When I first got into the space (probably 5 pages ago, if not less), I did not buy any Bitcoin (other than buying some to trade for ETH, LTC, etc.). My positions were heavy ETH and LTC, mixed with much cheaper alt coins. My thinking then was.. one bitcoin cost $5,000.00 -- I could buy so much more of a cheaper coin and if it pumps to a fraction of that, I should increase my return more than I would holding bitcoin. This was around the beginning of August, and it at first seemed like a solid plan -- alts were going nuts alongside bitcoin and I was up by more than $10K in the first few weeks. ("I love crypto!!") -- then the China ban happened, which sent Bitcoin tanking and every alt with it. I watched as my beautiful alt coin profit got slaughtered to the point I was down $10K. (always stop loss!!) One valuable lesson from that -- BTC ratio of your alt coin does not improve if BTC falls. It goes down with it -- Bitcoin burns the whole damn house down if it has to leave. When Bitcoin bounced back, I was excited for my alts to pump back up so I could set stop-loss and recover some profit. They never recovered. I watched as Bitcoin went to new ATHs, all the while alts were still getting destroyed. So then I realized -- if Bitcoin dumps, it's bad for alts. If Bitcoin pumps, it's bad for alts. What the hell am I doing with alts? Since then, I decided to revamp my crypto portfolio to be at minimum 50%+ BTC. A lot of people that I've come to respect through their commentary and insight on the market seem to think that's crazy -- BTC should be much higher % of your portfolio. "Your best alt should be no more than 5% of the total portfolio." I haven't gone to those lengths yet -- In my mind, I should be trying to accumulate as much BTC as possible (sell near top, buy back-in on dips w/ same money, increase btc holdings).
Did BCH split? *chuckle* jk... a few days ago it was $2400. Today it tanked around 25% and is currently under $900.
