2018 Arbitration Salary Projections

NVM. I see what the left number is now.

 

Fiers is gone. Bring the rest back. Decide if you want/need to move Gattis or McHugh in a trade, but there shouldn't be a push to do so.

The only tough one is Marwin. Going into his 3rd year of arb, we're going to look at signing him longterm...otherwise he's as good as gone after next season. What would it take to lock him up? And are we willing to dish that out knowing what else is in the pipeline? He's going to be 29, but he doesn't rely a ton on speed/athleticism. I feel like a 4/50 type of deal wouldn't be out of the question, and wouldn't be difficult to trade if it becomes necessary salary-wise.

 

Well, Fiers will free up some money.

You can probably let McHugh go to. I love the guy and appreciate what he has done but if we roll with Verlander, Keuchel, Morton, McCullers and Peacock.... a 6th starter is a luxury when the budget gets tight.

 

I have payroll ~$140M with those numbers factored in. I think Fiers will be traded before he is non-tendered; $5.7M/1yr is a decent value for a guy who has been worth 6 fWAR over the last 4 seasons. They could eat $1-2M and get back a lotto prospect from a team desperate for reliable arms like the Orioles. I think they’ll do the same with Sipp and shed as much of his $6M as possible. If they do that I think they’ll have $10-15M in payroll flexibility. I’d love it if they had enough to sign a good bat (Lucas Duda) and lefty reliever (Jake McGee) in free agency.

I don’t see them having the money to extend any of their core (Altuve, Keuchel, Correa, Springer), and if they can’t do that, it doesn’t really make sense to extend any of the supporting cast unless the player is willing to take an extremely team friendly deal.

 

Fiers is gone.

I can't imagine we don't keep McHugh. Would take good value in a trade not to keep him.

 

Yeah Fiers was a goner as soon as we took on Verlander's contract and likely would have been gone regardless. I am sure the Astros will keep McHugh for trade purposes. Not to mention we don't know what to expect from Lance going forward.

I still expect McHugh, Martes,Morton or McCullers to be gone if the right deal arises for an outfield bat or high leverage reliever.

 

Yeah, McHugh is still very valuable. He is 26th among all pitchers in fWAR since 2014. I could see them shopping him or Peacock and seeing if any teams make an incredible offer, but otherwise being content to go into the season with 7 guys (Verlander, Keuchel, McCullers, Morton, McHugh, Peacock, Martes) for 5 spots.

 

If the Royals can afford 150-160M payroll then the Astros should be able to.

I agree that it makes sense to trade Fiers for a low level prospect. I see them holding on to Sipp and hoping he can regain his form in a contract year. Curious to see if they try to retain Maybin and Liriano at lower salaries than this year.

A high level lefty reliever whether through FA (e.g. McGee) or trade (e.g. Britton) has to be a priority. Really that should be the only significant salary that is not already on the roster.

I'd give the Moran, White, Reed, Davis group a chance to win part time DH alongside Gattis to start the year. If no one seizes the opportunity then go for a DH bat near the deadline (like JD Martinez this year).

 

No Maybin, no Liriano, no Sipp (unless it costs them a prospect to move Sipp...in that case, you keep and hope).

 

I agree both maybin and Loraine aren't coming back and as long as the cost of business isn't prohibitive I believe sipp is gone as well via trade.

I think fiers is the clear casualty here.

Mchugh imo, will be traded and Gattis has a 50/50 shot of being traded also.

Both could net you something in return and we have some form of replacement in our system.

I don't think we will be that big of players in free agency but I still think we make a splash in trade via acquiring Britton.

 

Everyone wants Britton...but he had knee issues all year. Pretty sure he had forearm issues last year? Or was it the year before? Hasn't been fully healthy in a while and is a big question mark. I'm not super into him. If we had grabbed him instead of Verlander (like many wished at the July deadlnie), we'd have been f'ed.

 

I'd welcome Liriano back, but he'd have to come cheap.

 

Depends on what he costs us. I'd guess they hold onto Britton to see if he can show he is healthy and rebounds and then moves him at the deadline, assuming they suck again.

 

I mean I think he is very good, but this is just a guess on my part. We have had steady interest so I'm assuming we are willing to look past health concerns

 

Pay all except Fiers.

If u lose Gattis and McCugh oh well.

 

Very cheap. I'll like to ship Sipp out to the Rangers for a 113th round pick.

 

So you're saying that a third of the roster will turnover?

I don't think you trade both Fiers and McHugh (pick one). Why would we trade Gattis when we don't actually have a reliable backup catcher nor DH? We have some prospects but they are just prospects.

 

gattis, like I said is likely mor 50/50 b cause h can catch and DH, and like you said we have prospects to replace but they ar just that. Me thinking h me could get trad d is because of a salary stand point.

Same with mchugh but not only because it sheds salary, but opens up a potential spot should a prospect break through likes martes or Whitley. Plus he should net us a decent haul and comes from a surplus of "ok" reliable starters.

Fiers, imo, is gone no matter what. His contract just doesn't fit his production and our needs.

As for 1/3rd of our roster? Even all 3 of them and including maybin, liriano and Beltran that still isn't a third of the roster.

But yeah I expect changes and upgrades

 

So by my math subtracting Fiers and including about 10 million worth of pre arb players we are around 140.

We spent about 135 this season, so we should be up around 150-160 million, which is still only around league average. Gattis,McHugh and Morton are all very moveable if they need to free up money for some reason to add someone.

Without knowledge of how this postseason plays out, I'm fine only adding a reliever. Move Gattis to DH, use a traditional backup catcher, and let some of the prospects vie for the remaining LF/DH/1B PA's