The more I think about it, the more I love the Verlander move. It all starts with simplified belief that "The Astros have two bullets: Keuchel and Verlander." The rest of my points assume that these two dudes are our secret weapons. Not using Verlander in game 4 might've led to a scenario where the Astros died with a bullet still left in their chamber. Here is what I think was going in on hinch's head during this decision, and this is why I compare it to leaving an unused bullet in the chamber of a gun. Use Verlander in Relief in game 4 Scenario 1: (the scenario that ended up happening) We win game 4. In this scenario we get 5ish innings out of keuchel and 8ish innings out of verlander against the red sox. The ALCS starts Friday so Verlander could start game 1 with a little less rest than ideal, or they could start a fresh Keuchel in game 1 and Fresh Verlander in game 2, which they would not have been able to do if one of them had pitched wednesday in game 5 of this series. That gives Hinch extra motivation to want to close the series out ASAP. Scenario 2: We lose game 4 but win a game 5 Keuchel start. That would mean we got 8ish innings from Verlander and 10ish innings from Keuchel in a series win. In the ALCS, this leaves Verlander for perhaps a short rest game 1 start and Keuchel for a short rest game 2 start. Scenario 3: We lose game 4 and lose a game 5 Keuchel start. No ALCS. We get 8ish innings from Verlander and 10ish innings from keuchel in this scenario. Yeah it sucks that we lost but at least we know that we used every weapon that we had to try to win. In this scenario, Hinch knows that he went toe to toe with the red sox using the hell out of their two bullets: sale and price Do not use Verlander in Relief in game 4 Scenario 1: We win game 4. Obviously this is the perfect, ideal scenario. Only 5 ish innings out of keuchel and 5 ish innings out verlander in a series win so both are fresh and ready to go for the ALCS. Scenario 2: We lose game 4 but win a Game 5 Verlander start. In the ALCS, that leaves Keuchel for a fresh game 1 start but means we probably can't use Verlander in Game 2. Scenario 3: We lose game 4 and we lose a Game 5 Verlander start. No ALCS. This is the only scenario where I would truly feel comfortable criticizing Hinch, because it opens up the possibility of losing the series while only getting 5ish innings out of Keuchel. How sick do you think AJ Hinch would feel if the Red Sox won using the hell out of all their bullets and Hinch still had a bullet left in his chamber? By hinch choosing to pitch Verlander in relief today, it eliminated the possibility of losing the series without using your best weapons. All things considered, I think Hinch did a pretty great job of balancing 1)giving his team the best chance to win this series and 2)making sure guys are fresh for the next round. Feel free to correct me on my stats about how many innings each pitcher would pitch (they were approximations). Also my scenarios are kind of simplified, so feel free to offer more scenarios and/or go more in depth about the scenarios I listed. I'm sure that there are other pros and cons in each scenario that I'm not weighing out in Hinch's decision making yet.
I was expecting him to pitch at some point today... especially if it rained... but hated bringing him in mid-inning. Frankly, if there wasn't the threat of rain, I wonder if they'd have just started him on 3 days rest. I also don't understand the logic that them using Sale made the Astros using Verlander make more sense... they're the ones who have no tomorrow, and have to use their best pitcher to simply survive. When Hinch was explaining the move, it was almost as if because they used Sale, they felt more confident that they'd be able to use Verlander... which is strange logic. All in all, this worked out about as well as they could imagine. Verlander made the one mistake, regained his composure, kept the Red Sox from doing what they did Sunday, got the win, and is still in line to start game 2 (which would not be the case if he was starting game 5).
The first explanation I heard Hinch give was that the Red Sox know how the weather “works” at Fenway. The Astros felt confident that once Sale came in the Red Sox we’re convinced there would not be a weather delay during the middle of the game. Thus, they felt more confident that Verlander could come in without being wasted if there were to be a delay.
1) I agree. That is the only thing that I can truly criticize hinch from my perspective but part of it might just be managing the emotions of the team. Maybe he thought Morton deserved to start the inning but changed his mind after the walk (maybe got bad memories of not changing his mind quick enough in the will harris astros royals game 4) Either way, you are correct though. He should've just started Verlander that inning. 2)Again, part of it might be managing the emotions of the team. I have this feeling that the team trusted hinch, felt he was all in, and thought it was time to wake up when Verlander was put in. We know momentum, confidence, and emotion in baseball are huge. Maybe in the back of their mind, the players believed more and truly thought the team needed to win today when Verlander was put in. Either way you are correct that the price/sale is the weakest part of my points defending hinch's decision. It's not about matching price/sale as much as it is about just using your best players because they are good. To me, the most convincing part of my argument is the number of innings keuchel/verlander pitch in each series loss scenario.
Yeah... so they used the Sale decision as a sort of litmus test to gauge whether or not they should put in Verlander.... which again, seemed a little circuitous in logic. The other side of thinking is that had their been a weather delay, Verlander would have been the perfect candidate to be the pitcher right out of it... Again, the plan was likely to use Verlander at some point today regardless... the weather playing a factor in why he just didn't start to begin with... but they had a strange way of explaining some of the reasoning.
I liked the optimization of innings argument. In a perfect weather world, and after Peacock's sub-par showing yesterday (and just seeing the general trend of how non-ace starters are being used in the playoffs now) I would have slated Verlander to pitch today on 3 days rest... Morton ready to back him up... and Keuchel ready to go on Wednesday. Verlander has pitched on 3 days rest before... he hadn't come out of the bullpen before.
I agree. He should've just started Verlander that inning. From my perspective, that's the only thing that we can legitimately criticize him for. But for all we know, maybe he planned to start morton that full inning and Verlander the inning after but got Will Harris Game 4 royals/astros flashbacks when the first batter got on base against morton. We all remember that he left Will Harris in the game far too long that time.
I didn't like the fact that we used Verlander in the game. I mean, sooner or later you have to trust your guys in the pen and if you can't then you're going to have problems beating elite teams.
Both Morton and Peacock are similar in that they become infinitely hittable the 3rd time through the lineup (and thereafter). That inning was their 3rd look at him... but because he had just previously struck out the side, I presume Hinch was willing to see how he did to start the inning.
exactly! Daryl Morey has a bunch of interviews about that concept when it comes to his decision making. If something bad happens (like a verlander 2 run homer) the fans are going to call you a complete idiot but you can't think about that or the results of the game. As a coach or executive, you need to just be sure that you always make a well informed decision with all the information. I believe that Hinch made a well thought out decision.
True, I don't blame Hinch for going all in here. However, I'm not so sure we will be able to get away with these tactics against CLE/NY. Why didn't we use Devenski? He's been solid all year, no reason to use Verlander in this instance.
