This is a premise I don't agree with. Just because your team is an elite team (95-100 wins) instead of an 85-90 win team...I don't know that you suddenly need a top 3 closer instead of a top 7-10 guy. Yes, the difference could matter in 2-4 games during the season and 1 game in the playoffs (throwing out very rough guesses). But, improving your #3 starter could make the same--or a larger in our case--difference in # of wins. Improving 2 hitters or defense could as well. I feel like some are magnifying the value of the difference in closers just because losing a game at the end is "painful" even if it happens just once. But it should be valued the same as losing a game via any other deficiency.
The Giles argument loop continues, despite my best peacemaking efforts....Speaking for those still a bit scared of Giles, I'll say I think the fear is coming from knowing that your season may be left in the hands of a guy with previous stability issues....The argument hasn't changed on either side of the spectrum. He is definitely improved on one hand, on the other, I think it is going to take a more extended stretch of dominance (which hopefully continues) for fans to trust him with our season. Hopefully that was fair.
Nothing unfair about it. But, what will it take to make fans trust him? As much as we would like perfection, that is an unrealistic expectation. In Giles' last 15 games, he has been unscored upon in 13 of them. He has 10 saves in 11 opportunities. His ERA is 1.38 and his WHIP is 0.76. We saw the stats where he has retired the last 21 batters at MMP that he has faced. Shouldn't fans (especially at MMP) trust him to pitch well the next time he pitches?
Simply, more of the same. Of his 12 saves, only 3 have come in a situation where the game has been within a run, and only 3 more when the game has been within 2 runs. So, fans just need to see more high-leverage success from him. That's it. I don't have a number, it just needs to continue. We need to be able to see him have more success in super tight situations before our memories are erased. I know it's not his fault that the Astros have been so damn good, that's just the way it is. EDIT: The 12 save number is according to ESPN. They credit him with a save in a 7-2 game. I realize this may not be the official number.
I think it's going to take an entire season of consistently solid performances for fans to trust him. He doesn't have to be perfect, he's allowed a bad outing every now and then. But, he needs to be good for an entire season. Also, I think people want to see him be really dominating, like he was last night. He's been pretty shaky at times. Let's face it. We gave up a lot for Giles, so we expect him to be really good. Also, I think people remember some of the great closers that this team has had in the past, and they are wanting that from Giles. Maybe that's unfair, but the expectations were very high when we acquired him.
It's great to see his stats at home but let's look at his stats on the road over his last 5 appearances. MIA 1 IP 0 H 1 BB 0 R NY .1 IP 1 H 1 BB 0 R NY 1 IP 2 H 1 BB 1 R * a great throw from Jake at the plate kept the tying run from scoring and a blown save LA 1 IP O H 0 BB 0 R LA 1 IP 3 H 0 BB 1 R 5 appearances 19 batters 6 hits 3 walks 2 runs (2 out of the 5 gms)
I haven't seen him pitch since before Cleveland Series. Giles was absolutely horrible his first month with the Astros. What period of time of good performance is enough to measure that he's moved on from that?
I don't have any specific number of high-leverage saves that will reinstate trust. I just need more. I outlined it above. Honestly, I'm pumped about how dominant he was last night. That's what's on my mind.
Yep. If you make it the last 7 road games, you add in 2 innings, 1 hit, no runs and 3 Ks. That is why I have been pointing out his last 15 games (after his 3 straight games of allowing runs). It shows he has been progressing in a positive direction.
Sure... the question is how much more. People are now nit-picking the quality of each save... and what the run differential was in each. It's a special form of scrutiny. People are heavily influenced by first impressions. As soon as Giles blows another save, it will undo pretty much every positive appearance. It's universally accepted that he has improved from last year, a year which he did post dominant numbers for 2+ months straight, and he still has room to improve. He's doing a lot more pitching this year vs throwing. Still no HR's allowed.
This guy has nuclear stuff/gas...and the ability to locate it...just not on a consistent basis yet... it's like catching a tiger by the tail. With the back, he seems to struggle early on and loosen up as the year goes on. Giles has lights out upside....and is on his way to getting there. By the end of the year, when we need him most..he'll likely be "untouchable". When we need him to close out big games in the ALCS and WS, Giles will stand tall and be worth every penny of that steep cost.
That's what we're hoping for Plowman. As the season goes on (and he has success) his confidence should grow. He has the stuff.
I would hardly call it nit picking. I am taking the same "nuanced" look at these statistics that is often demanded here. You realize that you have previously told me when Giles was struggling that we shouldn't put as much weight on his poor performances in lower leverage save situations? You said, we should look more to the fact that he's been good in the tighter save situations. I am only doing what you asked. The problem is, there haven't been too many of them. I was asked to define what would make fans trust Giles. It's success in more of those situations, the ones you advocated I should weight more.
I was actually mentioning those games that weren't save situations at all... or they were large leads that became bizzare mid-inning save situations that should never have been that close if not for a letdown from other mopup duty pitchers. He's been great in mostly all save situations... of all types... especially those where he actually starts the inning. And that is exactly what nitpicking is... especially since you still haven't said how much more you'll need. Keep in mind that he will blow another save at some point. Even Lidge was only dominant for less than a calendar year before starting to show some weakness. It's going to happen with young pitchers.
