Baseball America's Ben Badler reports that the Cardinals and White Sox are viewed as the favorites to sign Cuban outfielder Luis Robert. Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan is hearing the same, and he's been told by two sources that Robert has already picked a team and is expected to sign soon after he's officially eligible on Saturday. Passan also reports that Robert's price tag could approach $25 million, and that would come with a 100 percent overage tax, leaving the potential total cost in the $50 million range. The 19-year-old Robert, a center fielder, is considered an elite young talent.
I would be SHOCKED if we sign him. Crane will not make a move if he doesn't think it is a smart business decision. Gurriel was known to be ready to make the immediate jump to the MLB, thus the willingness on Crane's part to pay up. I don't think he will consider investing $20-$30 mil in a guy who will likely take at least 2 seasons in the minors before reaching the MLB to be a smart business decision.
Does anyone think this changes anything with respect to what Sox might be willing to take for Quintana? That's if they did indeed sign Robert.
So far, Sox have shown willingness to wait. Their ability to reject reasonable deals hoping for overpay in offseason is likely reduced as very likely the GM needs to cut 2017 budget.
Eh, never really expected them to drop that kind of money on an IFA. That's not their MO and the system is too good to need a move like that.
Aren't we one of a handful of teams that blew through the international signing budget already, which is why we were one of the few teams even in contention for this guy?
Yes. One thing Crane has proven is that he is willing to spend on the farm. They've spent pretty much the maximum possible on both the amateur draft and international signing. There remains the question of whether he will take the total payroll to the point most of us think it can be sustained (top 10 in the league), but in general he has answered questions about what he is willing to spend to ensure a sustained winner.
That is correct, but there's a huge difference between spending a couple million on an international prospect and spending upwards of $30 million. I agree that he has shown a willingness to spend on international prospects. Just not upwards of $30 million on a 19 year old who is still 2-3 years away from the MLB and could very easily never turn into a valuable major leaguer.
$30m x 2. It's probably $25-30m for the kid's signing bonus and then that same amount in tax for going over the IFA limits. Thinking about it, while I'd be happy to get another talented youngster, it'd seriously change my impression of their plan and values to spend $50-60m on an IFA.
The Astros had the money to spend if they really felt he was that special. I wouldn't exactly trust the White Sox scouting to be the best when it comes to evaluating young, raw outfielders. It is quite possible that he isn't as good as the press or fans think. There was a lot of attention given to Yuli's brother and ultimately it was hype. The White Sox have a poor track record on scouting and developing bats. They have kept scouts because their owner has loyalty to them, not because they are good at their job. Let's see how he develops but I wouldn't pin passing on him being because the Astros didn't want to spend 50,000,000 on a 19 year old... it is because they didn't think he was going to be a star.
Last cycle, the team's that went over budget are severely restricted this cycle and could not bid on Roberts. Astros were not over budget last cycle. This cycle the Astros are over budget. They will be restricted next cycle. This cycle is not over yet so they can bid what they like for Roberts. In for a penny, in for a pound.
