I don't think anyone would deny that a TOR pitcher would solidify our chances of succeeding in the playoffs. However, giving up highly rated future prospects for another BAT would be asinine. As it is, we're having to bench 2 or 3 above average hitters every single day.
Just saw this. Luhnow has platinum trade status in Oakland. Beane loves him some AAA hitters...defense optional. If there is one thing Astros have in minors, it is guys that haven't proven they can hit MLB pitching and that aren't known for defense. Preston Tucker, A.J. Reed, Tyler White all scream Oakland trade bait.
If it'd take a Tucker and/or a White, that's fine by me. Reed is worth more on the market still (and/or internally) than I'd want to give up for Alonso.
Lets look at the astros roster and where they came from: Chris Devenski Trade Michael Feliz Astros Signing Mike Fiers Trade Ken Giles Trade Luke Gregerson signing Will Harris waivers James Hoyt Trade Dallas Keuchel Ed Wade Lance McCullers Jr. Drafted Charlie Morton Signing Joe Musgrove Trade Brad Peacock Trade Tony Sipp Signing Evan Gattis Trade Brian McCann Trade Jose Altuve Ed Wade Alex Bregman Drafted Carlos Correa Drafted Marwin Gonzalez Trade Yuli Gurriel Signing Norichika Aoki Waivers Jake Marisnick Trade Josh Reddick Signing George Springer Ed Wade Carlos Beltran Signing There really aren't a lot of guys who came up through the system. It was Correa, Bergman, and Lance. The rest were trades or guys from the Ed Wade. A guy like Devo was a PTBNL. A lot these guys were cast off and throwins in deals. I think we overrate the astros minor league system based on what it produced in the majors. Losing Freddy Garcia did not cripple the astros. Not trading Scott Elarton and Daryl Ward for Clemens looks bad in hindsight. You don't get a ton of opportunities like now.
Jeff Luhnow took over starting in the 2012 season, so his first draft's players are now in their 5th year of minor league ball. I don't know how long an average MLB player spends in the minors before they're permanently promoted, but I'd venture the # is at least 4. Measuring by how many players are on our major league team that he drafted isn't the right measure for determining the quality of our system. The best we can do is see how the system ranks among competitors. By most accounts, we've been a top 10 system for a number of years now--including some rankings I saw before this season started.
Beane is odd, but I figure odds are one of the Astros misfit toys is to his liking. Probably would have to sweeten it with some minor prospects, but doubt Alonso will cost too much as a rental. Granted, it would be a small move and won't help too much, but unlikely to impact any other deal.
List of guys on Astros that were drafted by Luhnow, obtained in trade while a prospect by Luhnow, or acquired by trading prospects by Luhnow.
That's a pretty fun/educational exercise. Small point of clarification/question - wasn't Marwin a Rule 5 pick-up?
So all of you are completely convinced we are the Oakland Athletics. We have great players for 6 years and then they have to go somewhere else because we are a destitute franchise. If I felt like you guys, I would probably want to go all in too.
Nope. Just think focus should be in next 6 years. Most guys that help Astros in years 4-6 will likely be there for year 7. Just don't know how good those guys will be.
Well I just don't feel that way. We've watched the Cardinals win for a decade, lose maybe the best player in baseball, and never miss a beat. If we wisely balance helping the current team, while maintaining weapons for the future there should be no "window" That's not to say we can't make trades, even multiple trades, but if we shoot the works to win this year and next, a barren farm sure as hell will create a window.
I have this strange belief that Astros are going to lose some guys, but will constantly be trying to build the next young core to make up for losses and offset prices of guys that they do keep that are more expensive. I think windows will happen as some guys just aren't ready (complete tear downs should be done), but I do believe that if you think a window will end in year X...it will typically be a self fulfilling prophecy.
The Rays are an interesting case. Everything they do is colored by the fact that they may be the most payroll restricted team in the league. But looking at their roster they have a mix of mediocre veterans, young players, and good players under long term control. I have a hard time finding a good reason for them to trade Archer for anything other than a massive haul of elite prospects. He is under control through 2021, a window in which they also have Longoria, Duffy, Kiermaier, Souza, Colome, and Snell. They have a very good farm system, with 5 Top 100 prospects all close to the majors (2 SP, 1 SS, and 2 1B/OF), along with another dozen or so 2nd tier prospects. To me it makes a ton more sense for them to trade Cobb and/or Odorizzi. Archer is An irreplaceable asset; it's unlikely that any player they acquire will be as good as he is, and given their farm depth they don't need quantity. If I'm their GM, I flip Dickerson, Cobb, and Odorizzi in July, focusing on getting the highest ceiling prospects in return, ideally pitching. If Houston were to tell me they'd give up anything I asked (except members of their everyday lineup) for Archer, I'd demand Tucker, Martes, Musgrove, F Perez, Whitley, and Stubbs. Also, they're 6 games out of the division, but only 2 out of the wild card. I think they'd need to fall at least 5 games out of the wild card by mid-July to become sellers.
Depends what "all in" means, I guess. I voted no because going "all in" doesn't come with any guarantees. But I want them to trade for a SP. Without giving up KTuck. I want them to make moves that are smart. And that work out. Unlike the Carlos Gomez deal. I know, rocket science. I don't want them to approach roster management like it's this year or never. I do want a SP, without giving up our best prospect. Whatever that's called, that's what I'm voting for.
Creating the highest WS odds possible in a given year not including making insignificant moves that would not increase WS odds by at least 0.2%.
The Cardinals did have the inherent advantage of being a franchise that had not only historically won World Series... but they won in 2006 well before they had to make the decision on Pujols. The Astros franchise and fan base has a slightly different sense of desperation.
Agreed. I'm tired of re-hashing glory years where we lost in the NCLS or got swept in the world series. Win one, take the pressure, and then re-evaluate. If trading Tucker and Perez gets us 2.5 years of Cole in his physical prime and wins us a championship then I'll happily deal with the fallout later. Those two could just as well tear their ACL's and UCL's completely fall off the map. If we had 2 more solid years of WS contention after winning this year, I'd be stoked.
