One thing to consider is that the Astros HAVE to trade some of their AAA talent or else they'll lose them in the Rule 5 soon enough. We can't just hold onto guys like Teoscar/Reed/Moran/JD Davis/Kemp forever; inevitably someone will give them a try like DeShields on the Rangers. Better to get something of value in return for them, and allow the entire rest of the minor league conveyor belt to restart as a result.
While I agree with this, what we want/need is elite pitching/players and in return other teams want our best prospects, not those you mentioned. Second tier prospects alone wont yield top players in return.
I voted "no" as I only mostly agree with OP's point. I'm all for adding pieces before the deadline to improve this team, especially if it means adding another solid starter and a left-handed reliever. But I don't want to completely deplete the farm system or give up any of the young core pieces in the process. While this is probably the best team the Astros have ever had, the core of it is still fairly young. And there's always a better chance of winning the World Series over a period of 5-10 years than there is of winning it in any one year. I think Lunhow needs to maximize the team's chances of being a legitimate contender long-term, not mortgage the future for one or two veteran guys for 1-2 seasons.
As many others mentioned, defining "all-in" is difficult. I certainly believe that Houston should do everything it can to maximize the chances of winning a World Series while the current core (Altuve, Correa, Springer, Keuchel, McCullers) is intact. It is unlikely that more than 1 of those guys will resign with Houston into free agency, so from where I sit, they need to make it happen sometime between now and 2019. It is EXTREMELY unlikely that there is another Altuve or Correa in the system, and while the farm is quite good and will likely continue to provide a steady stream of major leaguers, once Altuve and/or Correa leaves, there will almost certainly be a dropoff in Houston's chances of winning it all. So from that perspective, I would definitely prefer Houston to acquire the players it needs to field the best team possible over the next 3 seasons, even if that means sacrificing wins in 2020 and beyond. I will say that my strong preference would be to add only difference making players who have multiple years of control, rather than rentals. I've said on other threads, I would pretty much be willing to give up any package of prospects to acquire Chris Archer, and I'd probably be willing to give up both Tucker and Martes to get Gerrit Cole. There are other pitchers who would provide a meaningful upgrade in the rotation, and I have no problem giving up good value to get one of them, although I would take Tucker off the table in those deals. It'd be a real shame, in 2023 when Altuve, Keuchel, and Correa are all on $150M+ deals with other teams, to look back on these years and wonder if giving up a handful of prospects who didn't even pan out would have put this team over the top and delivered the first ring to Astros fans.
Astros could use a lefty, a starting LF that bats RH (I do not expect Aoki to be the starting LF in playoffs), a 1B upgrade (though most 1B either suck or are awesome so this may be difficult), and basically almost any qualified SP would be a better option than Fiers at the moment to help rest bullpen/win regular season games. I think Astros get one shiny player at deadline, but it would not surprise me if Astros did small upgrades on depth to an already deep team with someone like Lorenzo Cain, Ozuna, or a Yonder Alonso. In addition, It would not surprise me if the Astros traded some of their MLB talent as well to make some room for slightly better players.
It would be a real shame, in 2017 when Biggio and Bagwell careers have ended and to look back and wonder if giving up a handful of prospects, in one trade for a rental (though he was awesome), that ended up with over 65 WAR in their careers would have put them over the top and delivered a ring to Houston if not 2 or 3.
I liked that trade then, and I like it now. I'm convinced we would have won that year if Kevin Brown's mother and father never met...and that's a good enough criteria for me for a deadline deal. Gave us a real shot at our first ever trophy.
Also costs the Astros a shot at first championship in 1999 as well as their shots to their second and third one. Instead of ESPN having Jeter night on Sunday, it would have Bagwell night in Houston and Yankee fans would have been complaining about how often they say Bagwell.
Meh. You're really talking about Freddy Garcia. Halama had 2 decent (not great) seasons mixed in with mediocrity, and Guillen wasn't really very good until he reached free agency. Yes, it would have made a meaningful difference from '99-'04 if Houston had Garcia in the middle of their rotation. But that plays to my point about focusing in on acquiring players with multiple years of control. i doubt you'd even remember/care if Garcia was ever an Astro if Carlos Martinez hadn't gotten irreparably injured. And though I'm too lazy to do the research, I think you'd be hard pressed to make the argument that those kinds of trades work out like that very often. My bet is that history supports the theory that prospects traded away bust more often than not.
Speaking of legit 1B, does anyone see the Padres dangling Wil Myers out there for more assets? They are moons away from being competitive and for the right price I'm sure can be had... he's still young (26) and is locked in for the next 6 seasons. It's not like those assets are going for an old and worn Mark Reynolds or Mark Teixiera (sp?). Just a thought.
Everything helps. Halama two decent seasons would have helped. Garcia alone may have made the Astros the dominant team in the NL. On Martinez, why would I not want both? Guillen was very good in mid 2000s and would still have been an Astro in 2004 and maybe 2005 as probably doesn't play as soon for Astros. I can't remember, did the Astros have a need for him then? On looking back at trades, prospects bust a lot.. Looking back at trades, MLB players acquired at deadline usually don't make a difference in World Series champion. With prospects, when they hit..they hit big for multiple years with small salaries. Prospects traded for players on average produce about 20% more than the players...though spread out over time. There is a cost for wanting wins now, wanting a safer commodity (known versus unknown), and consolidating talent. Other teams are not out to help the Astros and want a transaction cost from a contending team for trading current WAR for future WAR. A team can win a few trades here and there getting the player, but over time trading prospects for players will cost a team wins as regression takes over unless a team has a really good MLB scouting department. The question is are those wins today worth more than 20% for wins at a future unspecified date assuming of course other team doesn't give you ridiculous offer in your favor. Acquiring great players on long deals is tough as everyone wants those guys. Teams with them don't typically feel the pressure to trade them so they can sometimes hold onto them waiting for an overpay offer like CWS are hoping for Quintana. For rentals for second tier talent, there is pressure from both sides to make a big deal and 20% more for a half season isn't as big a cost as 20% more for elite talent for several years. So, while I do want the Astros to make a big move and a couple of smaller moves, I don't want Astros to just give whatever is necessary to win bid for Archer. If they can get him at a reasonable cost (20% more expected WAR than what is expected of him), sure Astros should do it. If it is more than that, Astros probably would be better off making other trades as they can likely get more talent on the field today and in future with other deals.
If Correa continues to slash .836/136, I think the Astros can live with Gurriel slashing .760/115. I'd put 1B, if I had to put it anywhere, at the bottom of the list of luxuries. Unless you're thinking move Gurriel to 3B and find an upgrade for Bregman?
Is it possible that we have some success, attendance grows in the next few years, and we spend to keep our young core together? I would really enjoy 3 or 4 of Springer, Correa, Bregman, McCullers, Bregman, and Altuve spending their careers in HOU like the two killer Bs.
Astros can live with Gurriel at 1B and possibly losing a guy in the Rule 5 draft. Astros could also live with Yonder Alonso at 1B at the cost of trading guys that won't make 40 man roster next year with a lottery ticket or two and having the problem of more MLB players than active roster spots. It is not a sexy move, but enough small moves add up. Might have to move Gurriel or Bregman to left or trade one. With the way Astros farm looks, a few small moves look easier than making the big splash in my opinion. Though, the Astros do have the talent for the big splash, but it is riskier as the Astros don't have many top prospects in AA or AAA.
This seems kind of arbitrary. Do the Cubs win last year without Chapman? The Royals in 2015 without Cueto? 2014 Giants without Peavy? etc.
Alonso is changing his style of play this year. Pitchers are going to adjust, and we'll see how that goes. I don't know that I'd automatically assume anything with him. I also don't think he'd come THAT cheap given if he does continue to hold up, even if he is going to be a FA. I mean, the A's traded significant assets away for him--he was the key piece when they traded Pomeranz away.
Yes, teams don't get many chances due to injuries and other reasons. We have the talent and performing on the playing field so we should do whatever it takes to add to improve the team. Here's my suggestions: 1) We need another ace level starting pitcher. The rumors are the Yankee are trying to get Gerrit Coles from the Pirated. Lets get him. 2) Another Top Closer. I would love to get Mark Melancon from the Giants and have Giles setup. 3) Another impact Hitter. LF Matt Kemp from the Braves. Does everyone else agree or disagree?
The offense is clicking just fine. I wouldn't target position players for trade unless something significant changes between now and the deadline. On the pitching side however, there are several areas for upgrade. - Lefty reliever or two (let Sipp go?) - SP (2)(anyone available better than Fiers would help for the regular season. Really need a solid 1-2-3 to improve playoff aspirations though).
I think that is a lot of stirring up something that is already working. I think just a pitcher and a lefty reliever. Possibly a closer too. If anyone would be cool it would be Freddie Freeman but hes too expensive I bet. Or Goldschmidt.
