But it's true. From what I have read, I'd put the White Sox as the early favorites. No percentage point guess though. Even considering that, I am going to put my faith in Plowman and hope he has inside info, even though he explicitly said he didn't. I'm taking anything I can get, haha!
Well they have established star Jose Abreu, and just traded for phenom Yoan Moncada. I think Abreu's presence is huge, and Moncada even stated that Abreu helped him after he was traded to the White Sox. On the other hand, we have Yuli Gurriel, and he and his family are like Cuban baseball royalty (from what I've read). If we are going by that, I'd give the advantage to the Abreu/Moncada duo and the White Sox. This is all speculation from me, I have no inside information.
I assume he will sign on that day or very soon after, since he has to sign by 6/15. May 20th gives him plenty of time to do all the workouts and negotiations. Hope Houston signs him. It's not my money and adding a high ceiling player like that will pay tremendous dividends as the big league roster ages and gets expensive.
I agree with you here. I honestly don't know much about the kid, but there is definitely hype around him. That 100% tax penalty is going to hurt. Even if he signs for $20M (just made up number), our total cash spend would be $40M. And I wouldn't be surprised if he signs for an amount ultimately north of that. That's a hefty and risky investment for a teenager, even if he has potentially loud tools. But that potential reward is so enticing, and I can see why a future outfield of Kyle Tucker and Luis Robert has most of us fans excited. But just like you said, it's not my money, so why the hell not!
Here are some Cuban minor league Astros that I found: AA RHP Rogelio Armenteros (Age 22) RF Alejandro Garcia (Age 25) A+ 2B/SS Anibal Sierra (Age 23) RHP Yoanys Quiala (Age 23) A- RHP Carlos Sierra (Age 22) Other 1B/DH Yordan Alvarez (Age 19) LHP Cionel Perez (Age 21)
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/04/latest-on-luis-roberts-market.html Latest On Luis Robert’s Market April 27th, 2017 at 9:31pm CST • By Steve Adams Nineteen-year-old outfielder Luis Robert is the top international talent that is available on the amateur market and, after recently being declared a free agent by Major League Baseball, has already begun hosting private workouts with interested teams, according to Baseball America’s Ben Badler. The Athletics hosted a workout for Robert last Friday that was attended by GM David Forst, according to Badler, and Reds GM Dick Williams was on hand to watch him this past Tuesday in a workout. Prior to that, he’d worked out for the Astros, Badler adds. Badler notes that Robert’s camp is also expected to set up private workouts with the Padres, Cardinals and White Sox in the coming weeks. It seems that of those three clubs, the heavy-spending Padres are up first, as Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union Tribune reports (via Twitter) that Robert will work out with the Pads tomorrow. To this point, the Padres have paced all 30 teams in terms of international spending during the current signing period, as their total investment (including luxury tax penalties for shattering their allotted bonus pool) is in the vicinity of $80MM. The willingness to spend at such an aggressive level may be key for any club that wishes to sign Robert, as FanRag’s Jon Heyman writes in his latest Inside Baseball column that one source who closely follows the international market believes Robert already has a $25MM offer “in hand,” though Heyman notes that others have suggested to him no offers have been made to this point. There could, of course, be some semantics at play there in terms of what constitutes a formal offer. A price tag in the vicinity of $25MM for Robert would come with a 100 percent luxury tax attached to it, meaning he’d cost any team that signed him at that rate a total of roughly $50MM. As Badler writes, though Robert has been declared a free agent, he won’t formally be cleared to sign until May 20. In the interim, he’ll host at least one more open showcase for teams, in addition to the remaining private workouts his camp will orchestrate. It’s worth noting that of the teams linked to Robert, only the White Sox have yet to exceed their current international bonus pool. In other words, while other clubs would essentially only be parting with money in order to sign Robert, the ChiSox would need to determine if Robert is worth handcuffing themselves in each of the next two international signing periods; should the Sox decide to exceed their pool in the eleventh hour — the current signing period ends on June 15 — they’d be unable to sign any individual player for more than $300K in either the 2017-18 or 2018-19 signing periods. In a similar vein, teams that are still in the metaphorical “penalty box” for crushing their allotted pools in previous signing periods won’t be able to compete for Robert’s services, as they’re each capped at that same $300K figure on individual signings. That eliminates the Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Blue Jays, Rays, Royals and Diamondbacks from serving as serious competition in the Robert market. Though Robert is just 19 years of age, he’d already blossomed into a star, hitting a ridiculous .401/.526/.687 with 12 homers, 12 doubles, a pair of triples and 11 steals over the life of 53 games (232 plate appearances) in his final pro season in the Cuban National Series. Scouting reports on Robert note that he’s capable of playing center field right now, though he may ultimately wind up in a corner. Badler has previously written that both his bat speed and raw power are plus, and Heyman’s above-linked piece offers a number of favorable reviews of Robert’s skill set. Additionally, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez has previously spoken toa number of international scouting directors who have heaped praise onto Robert, calling him the game’s best international prospect behind Japanese phenom Shohei Otani and labeling him one of the most talented young players on the planet.
Man those numbers are getting up in Moncada territory. I've heard the guy has first round level talent but that number is getting up into top 5 of a draft talent price level. Moncada is the #1 or #2 prospect in all of baseball so either prices are spiking because Luis Robert is the last great Cuban prospect or he's just that good.
50 million is probably about Tucker's value right now. Tucker and most guys like him are not on the open market though. Teams that have money to spend for future just don't have many options to spend that money (i.e. they aren't going to pay an MLB player a long term deal when they won't need him for a few years). Robert is last chance to really buy a young prospect so there is that extra pressure driving up price.
I would guess that a first round talent on the open market would be worth at least $30M to a team in Houston's situation, and could be worth up to $60M depending on how good they think he is. I think any team that pays more than $70M (meaning $35M signing bonus for Robert plus $35M penalty) is looking at a pretty bad overpay.
Just go draft Adam Haseley from Virginia if they miss out on Robert or draft a left hand pitcher (Gore, Romero or Petersen from Oregon)
First I don't believe that Moncada is viewed as the #1-2 prospect in baseball by actual scouts. Having said that, Robert's actual value at this time is still unknown. I say this because he played in Cuba during a time period when a lot of the talent in the league was leaving and it didn't have the type of depth seen in the past. Currently he is practicing and playing in less than ideal conditions. So much of this is going to come down to the private workouts and scouting. Very volatile and fluid with regards to his value. Robert may really be special, but the media has hyped someone as the next great Cuban for the last half dozen years. Just have to be careful to avoid a Rusny Castillo situation where a player gets a large amount of money and is content just cashing pay checks.
I assume there are at least a couple actual scouts that have him as 1-2, but doubt he's consensus. He's still probably Top 25 even with his K problem.
I definitely think he is top 25. I can tell you a few scouts I spoke to recently at a Kane County minor league game told me the concern with him is all make up and is what make the Red Sox willing to deal him. Doesn't mean he won't become a superstar, only that there are more red flags than meet the eye.
When people talk about $30MM or things like that, how many years are these deals? Are they all the same standard length, or is that a negotiable part of the contract? And does the money start in Yr 1, or when they make it to the majors?
I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure Robert will sign a minor league deal like any other 19 year old international signee, which means the money will come in the form of a signing bonus, and the player has a contract/service clock like any other amateur. He would be controllable for a minimum of 6 seasons in the majors (league minimum salary during the 1st 2 or 3, then salary arbitration).
Haha i was typing a response but you beat me to it Snake. This information is correct. An article on Moncada's contract says that an IFA bonus > $1m has to be paid out by the end of three years after signing. Not sure if that particular rule changed after the recent IFA rules change in december.
