I had the same reaction... who cares how fast the ball is traveling if it's 3 feet over a WR's head? (Granted, what's-his-name is tiny. But, still...) And I don't know if throwing a ball 62 MPH translates to the game of football - it's sort of like being able to throw it 80 yards in the air... it's nice but how often will he be asked to actually do it? You certainly need zip on the ball - but more and more, I think recognition, timing and having the courage to pull the trigger when your space is this small are the most important elements to being a successful NFL QB. It's why Manning was still effective long after his lost his zip. He knew where and when to throw it and he never hesitated or overthought it. Case in point: David Carr is, what? 37? And he can still gun it. But he lacked the three elements I mentioned big time and, well, here we are....
I agree. I don't think you can teach a QB to be more accurate much either. You can just clean up his mechanics and hope it translates to better numbers
I don't really even think mechanics are an issue; I think teams care far too much about how a ball is delivered and not enough about it actually getting, you know: delivered. Sure, if a QB has a hitch that extends his delivery, or his motion causes him to throw low - or whatever, you correct it. But if you have a guy that consistently puts the ball where it's supposed to go when it's supposed to be there... that should good enough.
I think y'all guys are doing too much analysis of a how fast can you throw the ball competition. Dude sailed the ball because he was trying to throw it fast as ****. Who cares? And relatively speaking, who cares that he can throw it fast as ****? I mean, faster is probably helpful, but assuming they pass a "fast-enough" bar, which almost all draftable NFL prospects do, lots of other things that need to have that are more important.
This season that's not the case, actually there weren't many that passed the "fast-enough" bar. In fact, I think I saw something that said only Mahomes passed that bar and some like Watson were WAY below it.
I agree with @JayZ750 like I said before the kid is a former major leaguer's son and when we know for a fact he can throw a 93+ mph fastball this silly throwing competition with David Carr becomes obsolete. Just like what @Hey Now! said, there are too many other aspects that go into creating a great QB that arm strength (while being a huge plus) may not be the most pertinent.
In fact, I just looked it back up, the "fast-enough" bar is set at 55 mph and most people were at or above it. Only Peterman, Kaaya, and Watson were below that bar with Watson being WAY below the bar.
As a huge Miami fan, I can say for sure the big problem with Brad Kaaya has nothing to do with his arm strength. The guy can throw the ball with plenty of touch and accuracy.....when not pressured.... I'm saying that to say, I don't think Arm Strength is the end-all be-all for QB's like it used to be. Peyton Manning wasn't throwing the ball super fast for most of his career, and we'd definitely take him over anything we've ever had.
one's left handed and one's right handed? both first rounders? I also think people are going to give Watson more slack than Tebow
Well there's different types of arm strength though. There's one type that allows you to throw the ball deep and another type that allows you to throw the ball shorter with plenty of zip on it. Throwing a fastball and throwing a deep bomb takes 2 different types of throwing. The issue when guys can't throw at least 55 MPH is that it gives the defense plenty of time to react. For example, throwing the ball at 53 MPH at a target 20 feet away means that the ball is still 3 feet away from the target when a pass thrown 55 MPH would hit the target. In many cases that can be the difference between a completion or something like an incompletion or an interception. If you throw 49 MPH like Watson.....well, that's all kinds of not good. It may not make that big a difference at the college level, but it damn sure can matter at the NFL level and that's why you don't see guys (other than those who were injured at the time) throwing under 55 MPH at the combine being successful in the NFL.
Here's a list of QB's with sub 55 MPH at the combine (those who didn't throw are excluded) Year: 2016 Dak Prescott, Mississippi State 54 (he was injured at the time) Nate Sudfeld, Indiana 54 Kevin Hogan, Stanford 53 Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky 53 Vernon Adams, Oregon 53 Jeff Driskel, Louisana Tech 52 Connor Cook, Michigan State 50 Year: 2015 Bryce Petty, Baylor 53 Brett Hundley, UCLA 53 Shane Carden, East Carolina 52 Jerry Lovelocke, Prairie View A&M 51 Nick Marshall, Auburn 50 Blake Sims, Alabama 42 YEAR: 2014 Tajh Boyd, Clemson 54 Bryn Renner, North Carolina 54 David Fales, San Jose State 53 AJ McCarron, Alabama 53 Dustin Vaughan, West Texas A&M 53 Connor Shaw, South Carolina 50 YEAR: 2013 EJ Manuel, Florida State 54 Matthew Scott, Arizona 54 Landry Jones, Oklahoma 53 Collin Klein, Kansas State 52 Colby Cameron, Louisiana Tech 51 Marqueis Gray, Minnesota 51 Michael Glennon, North Carolina State 49 YEAR: 2012 Patrick Witt, Yale 54 Darron Thomas, Oregon 53 Ryan Lindley, San Diego State 52 Kellen Moore, Boise State 52 Jacory Harris, Miami 50 Aaron Corp, Richmond 50 YEAR: 2011 Nathan Enderle, Idaho 54 Jake Locker, Washington 54 TJ Yates, North Carolina 52 Christian Ponder, Florida St 51 Ricky Stanzi, Iowa 50 Tyrod Taylor, Va Tech 50 YEAR: 2010 Max Hall, BYU 52 Tim Hiller, Western Michigan 52 Michael Kafka, Northwestern 52 Zac Robinson, Oklahoma St. 52 Jevan Snead, Mississippi 52 Sean Canfield, Oregon St. 51 Jarrett Brown, West Virginia 50 John Skelton, Fordham 50 Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan 49 Tony Pike, Cincinnati 49 Armanti Edwards, Appalachian St. 46.5 YEAR: 2009 Tom Brandstetter, Fresno State 53 Cullen Harper, Clemson 53 Stephen McGee, Texas A & M 53 Graham Harrell, Texas Tech 52 Pat White, West Virginia 52 YEAR 2008: Brian Brohm, Louisville 53 Chad Henne, Michigan 53 Erik Ainge, Tennessee 52 John David Booty, Southern Cal 51 Matt Flynn, LSU 50 Josh Johnson, San Diego 49 Colt Brennan, Hawaii 44 Not a single good NFL QB in the bunch.
These numbers on Watson seem to make sense once you watch him throw the ball in games. I know a lot of people love Watson and want him to be a Texan, but I just don't see what's so attractive about him as our QB of the future. Sure, he had two really good games against Bama two years in a row. But if you just go watch his tape from most of his games you can see that he constantly misses throws and makes poor decisions of when/where to throw the ball. He led his team to incredible success for two seasons, but his lack of arm strength and his very high amount of interceptions last season concern me.
For me the high number of interceptions along with the poor pass velocity is almost enough to take him off the draft board entirely. He has some things going his way like the quick release on his passes, but I would be shocked if this guy became a decent starting QB in the NFL at any point.
LOL....um Watson's game will translate to the NFL. Put it like this....if Watson is there at 25, the Texans will be stupid to pass on him. LOL.....pick up on MPH as a reason to pass on him...LOL.
Every QB in this draft is problematic. I'd rather take this year's first, 2nd and 3rd and trade it to the Browns for their 1st next year and our 2nd next year back, and then use picks next year to move up to get whomever they want.... than take a QB this year at #25. But that's just my opinion on the quality of this QB class vs. next years. Preferably Darnold or Rosen next year, but there's also Josh Allen (not my favorite, but he's probably kicking himself at this point he didn't declare this year, as he'd have a chance of being the first QB off the board in this draft), Falk, and Rudolph (who I probably like more than most) and then there's a ton of other potential guys who might shoot up over the year - Browning, Jackson, Mayfield, McSorley ...
That list is everyone else that threw at the combine. There are plenty who threw at or over 55 who never amounted to anything so throwing fast doesn't mean you will do well, it's just that throwing slow means that you'll do bad.
Nice job doing this list. To add to your point, Over 55 mph doesnt guarantee success, but under it pretty much guarantees failure — Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) March 10, 2017 2 mph ball velocity might not seem like a big deal, but it translates to 3 ft travelled on 20 yd throw in same time frame. Huge NFL window — Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) March 10, 2017 However, according to this, Brees threw for 52 MPH http://blogs.ourlads.com/2016/03/02/quarterback-ball-velocity-at-nfl-combine-2008-2015/
