For any talk on Jose Abreu--he's over 30, and his ISO has dropped each season in the majors (2016 was below Springer's last couple of years). He K's as much as Springer but walks about half as much. He's off to a terrible start this year. His defense at 1B appears to be bad. If it's not clear, I'm not super jazzed on him as a 1B fix (esp. if it's just 1 year...he's no sure thing stud if we're trying to win a WS) more than giving Reed a shot to produce now and longer term.
If we could trade the farm for Goldschmidt, I am all-in. Otherwise.... no thanks to the 1B market. And really hitter market in general.
That's the easy criticism to lob. I charge anyone to provide a hypothetical for the same 2 players. Greinke has $200,000,000 left on his deal. He will be worth probably half that, if he stays healthy. How much excess value does Goldschmidt have? $100,000,000? $80,000,000? There is probably $10-15M worth of value going back to Arizona in that hypothetical so Goldschmidt would need $115,000,000 in EXCESS value to balance out the trade. I said above I would be shocked if they traded Goldschmidt but if they are even entertaining a rebuild the first thing they have to do is shed Greinke.
They aren't going to trade Goldschmidt for nothing just to shed Greinke's contract. That would be astronomically dumb.
It's awful because they don't need to shred Greinke so badly that they're willing to get eaten alive on Goldschmidt. And because other teams would gladly absorb Greinke in exchange for taking Goldschmidt and still provide a ton of prospect value back. It would probably take Bregman + Martes + Tucker to get them to consider Goldschmidt alone if they were even thinking about rebuilding. If you add in Greinke...perhaps you could drop Tucker down to Reed? I don't think any of this is realistic. But the fact that my offer includes Bregman and Martes, and yours includes zero players of value except perhaps 2 weeks of Peacock's decent performance out of the pen is why I think your proposal is far, far, far off--even if neither of us are accurate.
There are probably less than 13 teams who could even consider taking on Greinke's contract. Out of those, there are only 4-5 who are contending, and maybe 2-3 who fit that criteria AND have holes in both the rotation and at 1B. Again, how much surplus value is in Goldschmidt and how underwater is Greinke? You give me those numbers and I will listen to your argument. Without that you're just being reactionary.
They aren't going to enter a full rebuild with a $200M contract on the books. And they're not going to trade Goldschmidt without entering a full rebuild. I've already agreed that the whole idea of Arizona trading Goldschmidt is unrealistic. But if you're crafting a hypothetical trade, you gotta use value. So again, how much excess value is in Goldy and how underwater is Greinke. Without putting those numbers together you have no logical basis for ridiculing the hypothetical I put together.
Without reading the thread is this just pure speculation or is there smoke somewhere for Goldschmidt?
If Hader can stick in the MIL rotation then maybe you can consider the actual deal a loss but really not much significant value given up. More than anything it was the time we spent investing in Gomez as the starting CF for a while that set us back. In the end, I'm fine with the logic behind the trade.
Without pulling numbers that are also as random as this discussion I'm being reactionary? Sorry, not at all. Just evaluating differently from you. Throwing numbers into the argument doesn't make you more factual than me, given that we're both operating without Arizona GM info. If you think that's what it'd take to move Greinke's contract, that's fine. Then I would say there's no way in hell they would ever move Greinke and Goldschmidt together. They would move Goldy alone and then either move Greinke in a separate deal or just absorb him. IMO, if they put them together, they wouldn't be willing to take the huge hit on trade return that your numbers suggest. Which is why it would still take more than your numbers say to get a deal done if ARI decided it's a package or it's nothing.
Atlanta was clear in the offseason that Freeman wasn't available, why people still think he is im not sure If the cost were the same, I would rather have Goldy than Q
I refuse to watch Fiers pitch. I will go to great lengths to change the channel until the Stros are batting again. His stuff is so underwhelming.
You're correct about Abreu. I'm in that camp now. He's regressing and probably due to the inside pitch. That's what I read in a chat over at Fan Graphs. He's nowhere near what he was 2-3 years ago. A star and now just another guy.
He actually has ~$170MM left on his contract. And yeah, the valuation is roughly half - but that's assuming he doesn't continue to regress; the guy is 33 years old. The bigger issue - the Astros cannot absorb a $34+MM/year contract through 2021. And remember: not only will Keuchel, Springer, Altuve and Correa all be up for new deals while Grinke rots away - but we'd then have to figure out a way to afford Goldschmidt once his deal ends in '19. And he'll likely be a $30-$35MM/year candidate at that point. There's just no way the Astros can get anywhere near that nuclear waste of a contract.
Why not? Their payroll - even with Goldschmidt- is just $60MM if you don't include Zack Grienke. I'm sure they'd love to unload it - but I think they can absorb his cost and still go into full rebuild mode. I don't think it's *that* unrealistic. As I detailed in another thread, Keith Law ranked their farm system dead last. While that's an objective valuation, they've absolutely gutted it, trading away multiple top 100 prospects the past several years. If they want to ride Goldschmidt to a few mediocre finishes... so be it. But he could, in one deal, rebuild that system overnight. I've steadfastly maintained Alex Bregman is firmly planted on the "no way" list - but for Goldschmidt........... especially if we could protect Tucker..... I might consider it. Bregman would absolutely get their attention, I think. I'm sure we'd have to include Martes. Throw in some lower level prospects, maybe Reed.... I think they'd consider it. Goldschmidt would command a Sale-like return; any deal for him is going to hurt.
