Definitely extremely low probability for multiple reasons (they probably WON'T bottom out, division rival, etc...). But if they do bottom out, they'll have to take a hard look at a tear down. Taken from an M's season preview "The M’s core — Felix Hernandez (31 in April), Hisashi Iwakuma (36 in April), Robinson Cano (34), Kyle Seager (29) and Nelson Cruz (37 in July) — won’t have too many years past this one of significant returns, so Dipoto is setting up for the present first and future second. " It's kind of like the White Sox 2016, if they end up not being competitive this year then they have lots of older, productive pieces that could be flipped for a quick(er) rebuild. They're going to have to rebuild in the next few years one way or the other and I don't see them letting all their still productive talent just erode away in value.
While I think the Astros' offense is better than it was last year, I think they're still a team built on three known - and very good - commodities and then a big ol' pile of "if"s... If this isn't the year Beltran finally remembers he's 105; if Bregman progresses; if Gurriel can solve MLB pitching; if Reddick, Gattis, Aoki can be anything more than platoon-level; if Marisnick can resemble a competent MLB hitter............ Again: I like those "if"s better than last year's "if"s...... but throwing Goldschmidt into the middle of that makes those "if"s far less concerning. He's an elite bat, young(ish), local, and relatively cheap (# years, $~35MM). If Arizona asked for the same package as the White Sox would want for Quintana, for instance...... I think I'd take Goldschmidt. I think. What would you do?
Good question. Goldschmidt is a beast. I think I'd lean towards him over Quintana. Didn't he sign a new contract with AZ a few yrs ago? Can't remember the specifics of the extension, but I do know that Quintana is locked up for the next three yrs at a pretty reasonable contract. The key question is Crane and how much he's willing to add to the payroll over the next few yrs.
He's signed through 2018 with a 2019 team option, so decent but not an amazing amount of control left. Looking at his stats, he's basically a modern Jeff Bagwell. Career slash line of .299/.398/.525 with 147 OPS+ vs. Bagwell's .297/.408/.540 with 149 OPS+. Granted Bagwell's had decline years are already baked into those numbers, but Goldy is coming off 4 straight all-star appearances and 2 MVP runner-up finishes in the last 4 years.
Yep; and he's sneaky fast like Bagwell, too - 21 and 32 steals the past two seasons against only 10 total CSs. And he's already on pace (hey, it's #onpaceguy!) to steal 46 this year. He'll likely be the first 1B since Bagwell to post a 30/30 season. And according to BBREF, his #1 "similar batter" through age 28 is.... Jeff Bagwell. @the shark - he owed $8.9MM this year; $11.1MM next year; $14.5MM team option in '19. So roughly the same cost as Quintana, financially. But I think the risk is much smaller with him; I think it's safe to assume he'll come here and hit a bunch, just as he's always done and be productive at least through the end of his deal (he'd turn 32 in September of that year). And! And! He's went to high school in the Woodlands and played college ball at TSU. Local kid; would be a fun story.
That's pretty freakin cheap for a guy with his current abilities just getting into his prime. If the Astros did something like this, I'd be on board. Local kid comes home to make already very good team into a great team. It would certainly cost us a Martes, Reed, etc., etc. I'd do it but they're going to still have to make a move for a SP, IMO.
I still think our best shot at improving 1st base is a big offer to the White Sox for Quintana and Abreu.
Yep. I'm not sure the Astros *need* another bat... but if Arizona were to make Goldschmidt available...... he's too good to pass up - he'd be a Durant-to-the-Warriors type of opportunity.
Yeah; the issue with Abreu - he's a free agent-to-be, which would probably lessen his trade value, relative to Goldschmidt - but I think I'd rather sink or swim with Gurriel/Reed than rent a 1B.
Sure, it would be great to get a guy like Goldschmidt. He's undoubtedly an elite player. But there's virtually no chance he will be traded. One, the Diamondbacks have a half-way competitive team so it wouldn't make any sense for them to trade their best player and face of the franchise. Secondly, he would command just as steep of a price as Sale did. Hypothetically, if they were open to trading him (which I can't possibly imagine they are or will be anytime soon), it would likely take at least Martes, Tucker, Whitley and Reed. And even then they (D-backs) might not do it.
Can't really disagree with that. If it were last season, I would be ready to pull the trigger on an Abreu/Robertson/Quintana blockbuster. But (so far), I think the offense will be more than ok with what we have. I still think we need a starter and another lefty out of the pen... but I feel like we're all picking nits at this point. It's a pretty well constructed team... righty/lefty, youth/experience, versatility on defense... I just love the balance.
The idea came from here: And Fangraphs likely floated the idea because Arizona's farm system is awful. Keith Law ranked it dead last this past January: Yes, they're currently 9-5 but few believe it's sustainable. Take away Grienke's $31MM salary and they have the lowest payroll in baseball. And they've posted exactly one winning record since 2009, and have lost at least 90 games in four of those 8 seasons. IOW, they're a prime candidate to tear it all down and do an Astros/Cubs-style rebuild. Injecting their system with Martes, Tucker, Reed, et al, would be a pretty phenomenal start to that process. There's almost no way they'll be competitive - as is - during Goldschmidt's prime/contract.
There are still a lot of questions that could help them achieve moderate success. They have a lot of unknowns with high ceilings--Pollock (the most "known" on the list), Peralta, Lamb, Bradley (though his ceiling is falling), Taijuan.. and then lower ceilings with some potential still possible--Shelby, Ray, Corbin, Tomas. As you said, their payroll is low. If a fair # of the guys listed above achieve their potential, you could add a few FAs and be very competitive. But with a dead farm system, it would be more of a 5 year plan before the blowup. Which is what I think they're going for right now, rather than the immediate blowup.
It's technically not - unless you pretend Zack Grienke doesn't exist. They owe him ~$170MM over the next five years. That would be the other impediment. Man, if he was worth a damn and the deal was shorter... *that* might be the path to Goldschmidt... but as much as I'd love the Astros to snag PG, no way I'm touching that nuclear waste of a contract they gave Grienke.
Maybe they trade Greinke and Goldschmidt for a very limited return, with Houston picking up the bulk of Greinke's contract. Maybe this would be a fair hypothetical: Astros get: RHP Zack Greinke 1B Paul Goldschmidt Diamondbacks get: 1B Tyler White OF Preston Tucker RHP Brad Peacock PTBNL (outside of Astros top 20 prospects) That deal would probably appeal to both Luhnow and Arizona, but it may not appeal to Jim Crane. Alternatively, Houston could address both "holes" with the White Sox: Astros get: LHP Jose Quintana 1B Jose Abreu White Sox get: RHP Francis Martes 1B AJ Reed RHP Joe Musgrove 3B Colin Moran OF Teoscar Hernandez Houston could also take on Shields contract and lessen the prospect return.
If the AZ front office accepted that, MLB would void it and fine Luhnow. They might even press charges for straight up robbery.
