Baseball America just released its Top 100 draft prospects list yesterday. As we get closer to the draft, it'll expand until it reaches 500.
I'm starting to hate this draft if I was the Minnesota Twins. No clear number #1, and you can get as good of a prospect at the 10-15 range as you can at 1-5. Also, there ain't as much of a difference on the money slot up on top like in years past.
For the Stros, BPA is obviously the best strategy but seeing 3 LHP's in the 10-13 range gives me hope one could fall and give us good value at our pick.
If it is, that's so incredibly sad. Young kid likely just got robbed of millions of dollars, let him smoke a little weed.
True, but come on. Young and smoking a little weed? Look at many collegiate or high school athletes who get arrested for domestic violence or drinking and driving. The punishment isn't even as severe as this. Slap on the wrist and a few game suspension. The kid smokes a little weed, and screws up a few times and is banished? Yes, rules are rules, but this seems to be extreme. It's different if he has a substance abuse issue and is seeking help, but if it's just weed, give the kid a break. Only thing that would make sense is if he failed like 5 tests and was told if it happens again he's gone.
a) suspended indefinitely does not mean banished. b) we have no idea how many times he failed drug tests. it's at least two but could be far more. c) "multiple violations of [xyz] policy" could be a number of additional things rather than just pot.
Yeah, I guess until all the facts come out it's a tough situation to judge. Just feel for the kid. Hopefully he gets his act together, I don't want to see anyone throw away a fortune like that at such a young age.
It isn't just pot (from what I have been told) and at this time it doesn't look like he will be back at UH.
2 It's more than just weed. Apparently, before any of us talk about draft or....this guy needs to get his **** together. Million dollar arm and a ten cent brain? You tell me.
Updated pool and slot amounts: The Astros now have $9,039,600 in their draft pool (11th-largest pool) and 12 picks in the first 10 rounds. In case you forgot, two of those picks (56 and 75) were awarded to the Astros as part of MLB's punishment of the Cardinals for the hacking stuff. Round 1, Pick 15: $3,588,200 Round 2, Pick 53: $1,265,500 Round 2, Pick 56: $1,178,600 Supplemental Round 2, Pick 75: $767,400 Round 3, Pick 91: $597,800 Round 4, Pick 121: $437,400 Round 5, Pick 151: $326,600 Round 6, Pick 181: $249,600 Round 7, Pick 211: $195,300 Round 8, Pick 241: $158,100 Round 9, Pick 271: $141,600 Round 10, Pick 301: $133,500
Hard to say, and of course evaluation of talent should dictate their strategy, but I believe history would say they'd be better off spreading out their pool and getting 5-6 guys in the 20-60 range.
Pretty sure history, especially recent Astros history, actually says that talent gets very diluted sometime usually around the mid first round. There is a reason Astros got Cameron, even if it ends up a mistake, instead of trying to get more 20-60 range guys.
I agree the talent declines starting in the mid first round. However, what I'm suggesting is that the dropoff from 15-60 is way less steep than from 5-15, and so 5-6 guys in the 20-60 range are more valuable than 1 guy in the 5-15 range then 4-5 guys in the 50-150 range.
Interesting but not typically executed strategy. I don't agree with your premise (5 guys in 20-60 range are more valuable than a top guy and four 50-150 range guys) but its certainly something to consider. I wonder what the saber guys like Fangraphs would say about that. Personally I'd much rather hang my hat on a guy like Jason Groome (top guy who fell) than hoping 3 Andrew Thurman's breakout in a monster way.
