I think Musgrove's ceiling is a slightly above average #3. A poor mans John Lackey comes to mind. Maybe he can piece together a season or two where he performs like a low-end #2, but I think, when its all said and done, he'll be an excellent #4 and a serviceable #3. I trust Luhnow's ability to find the Joe Musgrove's of the world, so I would not hesitate to move him. Players typically go through some form of a sophomore slump, and while he showed glimpses of being a great pitcher last year, he also had lapses. I'm excited to see what he does this year.
I think Musgrove will improve to be a very strong backend starter around a 3.60-3.80 era. He'll have stretches where he struggles like all young players but then have stretches of brilliance much like this season. Probably wouldnt push him beyond 140 innings in the regular season. I am fine with him competing for a #4 spot on a playoff rotation. I know Luhnow feels good that one of Martes, Paulino or Devo could pitch well enough to earn a spot next season. If that happens I think McHugh gets moved, I don't see anyone else on the ML team being moved and he is just a casualty of too much depth in the organization. Keuchel Quintana/Duffy/Ventura/Archer/Gray.. McCullers Musgrove Morton Fiers Martes/Paulino (one is a centerpiece of a deal) Devenski Rodgers/Feliz/Peacock if need They have enough pitching. Whitley has to be untouchable after whatever deal Luhnow swings.
3.6-3.8 era is not BoR territory. There were only 36 pitchers in the entire league who had <3.80 era last season (min 150 IP). Not that it affects your point. But if we knew Musgrove would settle in as a 3.6-3.8 era guy then he should be untouchable. I'm fine with Musgrove as the 5th starter, but if including him in a deal for an ToR guy means the deal gets done without Bregman or Tucker, Im all for it.
So... a slightly better version of Collin McHugh? That's worth 2.5-3 WAR/year, which would be a tremendous bargain. I think Musgrove's potential + MLB experience makes him a very difficult piece to part with - ESPECIALLY if you also have to deal Martes.
I think Musgrove certainly could have that type of success. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if Musgrove eventually rattled off several seasons with a WAR in that range. But that level of performance is almost definitely a few seasons away. And obviously, no level of performance is guaranteed. I think Musgrove will provide a return in 2017 and 2018 that is more along the lines of a young Mike Leake. Leake had a WAR of .8, 1.5, 1.4 in his first 3 seasons. In 2016, Leake had a 2.6 WAR which was good for 48th best in the MLB. I would happily take a Mike Leake in our rotation. Even a young Mike Leake has a spot in our rotation. As you said, Musgrove has the potential to provide excellent value. We absolutely should not undersell him, but we have to realize that we're still talking about potential when it comes to Musgrove. I would not hesitate to lose that echelon of a pitcher if doing so means getting a proven, better arm. Losing Musgrove AND Martes is certainly tough to swallow. I do not want to lose Martes. I agree, I'm not sure that moving both of them is the right move. But I do trust Luhnow and his ability to replenish our farm, so we have that going for us.
Was there any truth behind the thought that CWS would want hitting over pitching? Pick one of Martes and Musgrove.. then Tucker and Fisher and call it a day. We still retain one of our top pitcher prospects (counting Musgrove) and our Outfield is logjammed right now.. I think we can replace Tucker in either draft or FA by the time he would make an appearance anyways. Springer, Reddick (for 4), Beltran/Gurriel, with a lot of corner and CF coming out in the next 2-3 years FA. just get one of them when Beltran retires, not like Tucker would be ready by then anyway.
It's been the presumption because the white sox picked up a lot of pitching in the other trades. But who can say besides Rick Hahn? There are a lot of ways to rebuild. The cubs focused on hitting, the Braves focused on pitching. Logic would dictate just acquire the most talented prospects irregardless of position but they don't have to be logical.
Bruce Levine/CBS Chicago: Although the White Sox aren’t putting a deadline on dealing their best pitcher, sources indicate that clubs have stepped up offers recently and a deal could get done soon. The perception that it’s a three-team race for Quintana doesn’t tell the full story. The Astros, Yankees and Pirates have been most often mentioned in the Quintana derby, but many teams are interested in him, given his resume. The Pirates may be asked for right-hander Tyler Glasnow and first baseman Josh Bell. The Astros won’t part with third baseman Alex Bregman but will have to consider top pitching prospect Francis Martes and outfielder Kyle Tucker. Yankees infielder Jorge Mateo and outfielder Blake Rutherford will be targets of the White Sox in any potential Quintana package. The White Sox are in no rush to move Quintana, but the smart money is still on him getting dealt in a multi-player trade before spring training begins.
60 days? I'm sure CWS and whichever team gets him would like a deal before pitchers and catchers report (less than 30). After that, deal unlikely until closer to thew deadline
I like Archer of the three but what's up with these asking prices? Sonny Gray must be the in the range the Astros are willing to give up. But it's kind of like buying from an outlet. Quality brand, but it just isn't the same.
He was on the DL twice last yr. First time was for a right trapezius strain, and the second time was a strained right forearm.
Any trade for Sonny Gray must involve reacquiring Jed Lowrie so that they can trade him back to the A's during the season.
Almost exactly the same situation with Keuchel. We don't know. I'd be very hesitant giving up anywhere near the same package for Gray as they're discussing for Archer and Quintana.
Nobody in their right mind would give them that. I have no idea why Oakland would sell low on him right now, they're much better off waiting and hoping he's back to normal and trading him mid-season.
