https://climbingtalshill.com/2016/12/07/astros-rumors-beware-the-price-of-a-jose-quintana-deal/ Would you give up Martes, Fisher and another prospect (not Tucker) for Quintana?
Absolutely. Quintana has 4 years of control at ~$10M/yr. Using extremely conservative estimates of $8M/WAR he's worth $30M/yr. so there's probably $80M+ of surplus value in Quintana. Would you give up Martes, Fisher, and Paulino (or whoever) for $80M? Martes is probably worth $30M, but Fisher and the other prospect are probably only worth $10M apiece. Also keep in mind that Houston will likely get a 2nd rd pick when he leaves in 4 years.
I doubt HOU gets Quintana without losing both Tucker and Martes. That's just the reality of the market. CWS is seeking a Sale-like return, and with good reason. I just don't see it happening. We're not that desperate yet, and more desperate teams could easily beat Martes/Tucker + add'l prospects.
Seconded. This is pretty fair. Martes is a top pitching prospect, Reed could figure out the majors in his second try and Daz has a ton of upside.
If we would be willing to do it in a second, doesn't that tell you it's almost certainly not enough? Trades usually have to hurt a little.
Martes is arguably as valuable as Giolito and possibly more. I keep hearing "the White Sox got the #1 and #3 prospect" in baseball and that is false. Often times the trade evaluations and lists are outdated. At least Cooper and some others said Giolito is probably in the 20-40 range right now. Moncada is still a top 10 prospect despite striking out 9 straight times in the big leagues. However a lot of teams are concerned about his contact rates and will his bat be special playing 3rd or 1st in a few years. The Red Sox scouts. Kopech has major upside and some scouts like he more than Moncada. However the Red Sox view him as an eventual high level bullpen arm and not a starter. My point is, it is hard to know exactly what the general concensus of scouts are on players right now because it changes rapidly and it is hard to know what the White Sox and Astros view as the value of particular prospects. It is quite possible that the White Sox value Franklin Perez over Tucker based on their internal evaluations.
Martes is a no trade guy for me. Doubtful I'd trade him for just about anybody but elite talent. One of the things to keep in mind about these guys who produce well but aren't considered star level talent. A lot of times these players go elsewhere and they're just not the same. The situation/atmosphere they're in sometimes has a lot do with their success. So I'd be wary of Quintana though I think he'd be a good middle of the rotation type get.
I can easily see Martes being our ace of the future. You know what you're getting with Quintana 200+ innings and an era over 3. We don't really know what Martes can do it against major league hitting. We know his arsenal has a plus-plus grade. I'll gladly take the mystery box instead of the known quantity especially if the Sox are asking for top tier prospects.
With our current lineup, I'd rather take a solid pitcher that adds stability to a rotation over an unproven prospect. We all thought Reed was a can't miss guy, and look at him. I'll take a bird in the hand over two in the bush when you already have a top notch offense.
Definitely in the trade a prospect or prospects for a proven starter at this point... it's time to win right now.(within reason, obviously don't want to be fleeced but you've got to give up guys with great potential upsides to get guys who are proven at the highest level... there is a lot of risk involved still even with top tier prospects)
Do it We keep Tucker-Bregman and add a guy you're confident in out-pitching any other pitcher, namely in the postseason. If McCullers stays healthy and Keuchel can <3.25 ERA along with our lineup.... 100+ wins. 90 wins, minimum, if MC-Keu duplicate their 2016's.
Lets not forget that Martes bailed out the management after the Appel disappointment. Astros don't have to do anything brash, they have a middle of the road rotation with a potentially elite offense. And Martes has Ace or at least # 2 but written all over him. Instead of pawning the future before we see this group play, I say let's see who performs and who falters. I know bidding gets crazy at the deadline, but I'd rather pay a little bit more then, if we know how to pinpoint the most glaring weakness. Keutchel, McCullers, McHugh, Morton, Musgrove, Fiers, Feliz, Devenski, all have shown us good production and of are displaying the talent they showed in the minors. I agree that one bird in hand is worth a flock in the bushes. But this is baseball, and controlling costs in critical to keeping a perennial winner. It's easier to tinker with the supporting cast than with an established core. As it is if the current core keeps it up, we won't be able to afford them. I'm not against trading, but Luhnow can't flinch. If he holds his ground, this team is still favorite to win the AL West. Once you give up a prospect, there isn't an undo button. How many people were wanting to nix the Giles trade, after Velasquez shined early in the season. Luhnow and crew know what they have. And if they recklessly trade without data to support their basis, they'll be out of a job.
Absolutely not, no Martez, no Cameron. Martez could be Quintana in a couple of seasons and Dax is too special to trade just yet imo. Reed, do what you want with him and Tucker, throw in two top 50 pitching prospects and if they don't take it move on to Archer
This is not the time or place to lie. We need to be realistic about the prospects of this team, Musgrove was complete dumpster juice last season
I thought this wasn't the place to lie? "Complete dumpster juice"? 1st appearance 4.1 innings of emergency relief. 1 hit, 8 strikeouts 0 runs against the Blue Jays. 2nd appearance 7 innings 1 run against the Rangers 3rd appearance 7 innings 2 runs against the Blue Jays 4th and 5th appearances - dumpster juice 6th appearance 5.1 innings 0 runs against the As 7th appearance dumpster juice 8th - 11th appearances 24.2 innings 7 runs (2.55 ERA). Yep - "complete dumpster juice" for an 11 game rookie. EDIT - and if you want to talk about complete dumpster juice over his first major league stint, there's a guy named Greg Maddux. (note I am not saying Musgrove will be Greg Maddux)
