2017 Astros Minor League Thread

I think the consensus is that their system is well above average, but not quite in the elite tier, which would mean a ranking in the 6-12 range. They have tremendous depth, and quite a few of their lower level prospects could make huge jumps (Perez, Sierra, Cameron, Celestino, Nova, etc.) which could keep their farm well regarded despite the likely scenario where they trade a good handful of their top guys.

 

Didn't see this link to BA's chat on prospects....http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/houston-astros-top-10-prospects-chat-2/#7AvCxGsywbZmeyJe.97

 

http://2080baseball.com/reports/reports-5165/

Francis Martes AFL Scouting Report

#2 starting pitcher with a power fastball, devastating curveball, fading changeup, and a developing slider. Large for his frame, but athletic on the rubber and can field his position. All of his pitches benefit from his plus arm action, which really stands out. The fastball plays up due to the arm action creating the illusion of the ball jumping on hitters. He maintains the same arm speed for his off-speed pitches, which adds to the sharp 11-5 depth his curveball has, making it his go-to out pitch. Impressive changeup, as it flashed arm-side fade and depth. The arm action and speed will make even average depth play up, allowing the changeup to be a second out pitch. His lack of control and body type would usually cause me to place a high risk tag on him, but given he is only 20 years old, moves well for his size, and throws all four of his pitches with the same arm speed and angle makes me believe he will continue to polish his four-pitch arsenal and reach his potential as a front-end of the rotation, high strikeout starting pitcher.

 

The scouting reports continue to be extremely positive. He's not quite there but he's moving into the "might be good enough as a primary piece" in a Sale or Archer deal.

Youtube scouting isn't great but the videos I watch make it look like he's got middling control. It doesn't match his reasonable appearing BB%. That scout quoted above doesn't seem to bothered by his control though.

If the package was Martes, K-Tuck, Whitley and Reed for Sale, who blinks first?

 

Still boggles my mind that Martes was a throw-in in the Cosart deal. What a steal.

 

I don't think that would be enough for Sale. Sub in upgrades for Whitley and Reed and you're probably in the mix. Martes, Musgrove, Tucker, and Paulino is probably a package Chicago would at least consider. But I still fully expect a team will crater and give up an elite player or multiple elite players (i.e. Benintendi/Moncada, Odor/Mazara, Urias/DeLeon, Soler/Happ, Torres/Frazier, Reyes/Wacha, Giolito/Turner).

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2016-arizona-fall-league-top-20-prospects/#MuLIBW6qUsspdQCt.97

6. Francis Martes, rhp, Glendale (Astros)

Martes, 20, takes the same swagger to the mound and has the same body type as big league pitcher Johnny Cueto, and it shouldn’t be long before he joins his fellow countryman in the big leagues. Finishing with a fall stat line of 2-1, 3.22 and 25 strikeouts in 22.1 innings, Martes uses a blazing fastball sitting 94-96 mph, touching 98, and teams it with two quality secondary offerings. He calls his breaking ball a curveball but it looks more like a slider, with at least one observer calling it a plus-plus pitch, and the above-average hard changeup works well off his other two pitches and is used to get swings-and-misses.

 

His control is good when he has his delivery down pat. Last year they were redoing his delivery and making it more repeatable. He is a very good athlete and they believe that long term he won't have any issues with command/control or repeatability.

The Astros system is in transition right now. It is recognized as a system with good prospects and a lot of depth. However it is a system with a lot of pitching upside. Martes is starting to get the attention he deserves but he is far from the only high end arm. The Astros love Franklin Perez and view him as a possible front end starter. There is a reason they traded who they did to the Yankees and kept Perez.

Trade publications are important and are fairly accurate but are not team specific and not always up to date. For example the players the Astros prize in their system are not always consistent with top 10 lists, etc.

 

Credit goes to the level of attention the Astros scouts give to lower level minor leaguers. Most teams scout AA/AAA heavily. The Astros have spent a lot of time looking at rookie ball and the low minors. It has paid off several times so far.

 

David Paulino also falls in that camp. He was a acquired as a 19 year old in rookie ball coming off Tommy John surgery, acquired in exchange for 19 innings of Jose Veras in 2013.

 

Musgrove too. Bodes well for Lupe Chavez and Yordan Alvarez.

 

Low-minors scouting has certainly been a strength of Luhnow's tenure. His upper minors and ML scouting have left something to be desired.

 

I'm really high in Alvarez. Confined to 1B but his tools at the plate are legit.

 

Thanks for posting Sickel's list tellit; I've been waiting for it. Man you really will never acknowledge that "Derek Fisher" is an Astros prospect.

 

Crazy to see Reed drop as far as he did. I fully expect him to come back in the fold. 120 ABs is an awfully small sample size to write someone off.

 

AJ Reed at 12 shows how quickly the shine can fade off of top prospects. I've felt fairly strongly that the Astros don't need to land an ace considering the prospect cost, but selling a Martes or KTuck while their value is high could be the right move. Basically I know nothing. Move along.

 

QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS

Grade A prospects are the elite. In theory, they have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Theoretically, most Grade A prospects develop into stars or at least major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.

Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.

Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.

1) Francis Martes, RHP, Grade B+: Age 21
2) Kyle Tucker, OF, Grade B+: Age 19
3) David Paulino, RHP, Grade B+: Age 22

4) Yulieski Gurriel, 3B-1B-OF, Grade B/B+: Age 32
5) Franklin Perez, RHP, Grade B/B+: Age 19
6) Forrest Whitley, RHP, Grade B/B+: Age 19

7) Ramon Laureano, OF, Grade B-/B: Age 22
8) Derek Fisher, OF, Grade B-/B: Age 23
9) Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Grade B-/B: Age 24

10) Daz Cameron, OF, Grade B-/C+: Age 19
11) Garrett Stubbs, C, Grade B-/C+: Age 23
12) A.J. Reed, 1B, Grade B-/C+: Age 23

13) Jandel Gustave, RHP, Grade C+/B-: Age 24
14) Anibal Sierra, SS, Grade C+/B-: Age 22

15) Jason Martin, OF, Grade C+: Age 21
16) Stephen Wrenn, OF, Grade C+: Age 22
17) Cionel Perez, LHP, Grade C+: Age 20
18) J.D. Davis, 3B, Grade C+: Age 23
19) Colin Moran, 3B, Grade C+: Age 24
20) Miguelangel Sierra, SS, Grade C+: Age 19

OTHER GRADE C+ (more or less interchangeable with spots 15-20): Yordan Alvarez, 1B; Rogerlio Armenteros, RHP; Gilberto Celestino, OF; Ronnie Dawson, OF; Jacob Dorris, RHP; Dean Deetz, RHP; Drew Ferguson, OF; Reymin Guduan, LHP; Jose Hernandez, RHP; Nick Hernandez, RHP; James Hoyt, RHP; Jordan Jankowski, RHP; Cristian Javier, RHP; Jon Kemmer, OF; Brendan McCurry, RHP; Freudys Nova, SS; Hector Perez, RHP; Brady Rogers, RHP; Abdiel Saldana, RHP

GRADE C (some of these guys have high ceilings): Brett Adcock, LHP; Jorge Alcala, RHP; Andrew Aplin, OF; Jonathan Arauz, INF; Tyler Britton, LHP; Guadalupe Chavez, RHP; Ryan Deemes, RHP; Riley Ferrell, RHP; Elieser Hernandez, RHP; Joshua James, RHP; Eric Peterson, RHP; Jake Rogers, C; Miguelangel Sierra, INF; Cy Sneed, RHP; Max Stassi, C; Miles Straw, OF; Trent Thornton, RHP; Ashur Tolliver, LHP; Framber Valdez, LHP