He can play his way into a top 10 pick. If Gonzaga gets to the final four, and he's averaging 22/12 along the way, I assure you he'll be a top pick, recency bias means a lot.
He won't be top 10. Still finish last game with 19/17 and block against Cuse. Still in good system: BOS, MIN, DET migth not run for ROY, but have huge impact from bench for a fact. For comparison Sabonis is taller than D.Green, T.Thomson or K.Love, so atleast rebounding translate to NBA for sure <iframe width="420" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/JGVwj7E1x8M" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
I think your analysis is spot-on. But I'd go as far to say, if he can be a dedicated professional, and have a real thirst for continual improvement, he can become an all-star like PF. He has the size and athleticism. So with the high bball IQ, and continued work, no reason he can't continue to improve.
I agree. Also, I think that athleticism is a very wide term. A lot of things go into it. So I would say you are both right and wrong. Sabonis can't jump very high and isn't freakishly fast in transition, but he moves well laterally and is fluid/nimble in his moves. Adding the fact that he has a very good footwork and an NBA ready body makes him a legit NBA level athlete, in my opinion.
Right... I meant more Kevin Love athleticism than Amare Stoudemire. Plus that gets me the whole white guy:white guy athleticism comparison to make it easier to understand
Yes, I think classifying athleticism based on race is pretty reasonable. For a white dude, Sabonis is very athletic.
Rebounding is more about positioning and instinct. Just look at Roy Hibbert, 7'3" tall and couldn't rebound to save his life. I still keep an eye on this kid.
I wonder though if the fact that Curry & Klay have dominated the league with fathers who played in the NBA, some team won't draft him a bit higher than he should.
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As much as I am a Sabonis homer, I have to admit that Poeltl has a higher ceiling as a player. But he is also much more likely to become a bust. Sabonis on the other hand is almost guaranteed to be a solid NBA role player and contribute right away, with a slight possibility of becoming a starting caliber PF down the road.
I agree with your analysis. The issue for Sabonis is that he's not big enough to play center and he doesn't have enough footspeed to defend PFs. His lack of lateral quickness is going to be an issue in the NBA. Mobile 4s will blow by him and opponents will continuously put him in pick and roll situations and force him to switch onto a smaller player. His skillset is that of a true center but he'll be undersized for that position. He's a high motor guy and he's really strong, very good rebounder and a good postup player but he's probably not a good fit for the Rockets due to his lack of shotblocking and footspeed and range on his jumpshot. He's a hard worker and too fundamentally sound to be a bust in the NBA but he's more likely to be a good bench player than he is a good starting PF. He may end up as a backup center which is a role that he could be really good at.
Good points. Although I have to nit pick it a bit. I think that Sabonis actually has a pretty good lateral movement. His inate quickness is average, but he has a very solid footwork on both ends of the floor. I've seen him guard opposing small forwards in NCAA. I think he'll actually be able to defend NBA PFs on the perimeter. The real issue with him is his length, because guys like Anthony Davis can just shoot over him all day long.
I think Sabonis is going to find a path to success. I like the idea of him and CC together personally. DD