Zach Lowe: Terrence Jones could be asking for $15M per year

:grin::grin::grin:

 

He's already made the top 7 rotation on a contender last season though....

Kay!

 

1. he made the top 7 because of injury only.

2. we didn't win a championship nor even get to the Finals. We weren't a championship team with those injuries and Terrence in the top 7.

Kay!

 

An interesting look at TJones breakout 2013-2014 season plus last years compared to DMo's breakout season last year:

 

Very simply, Terrence played 57% of his minutes in 2013-14 alongside Harden/Howard.

DMo played 23.9% of his minutes in 2014-15 alongside Harden/Howard.



When you compare this team when each of Terrence/DMo play alongside both Dwight/Harden you will see that the Harden/Howard/DMo triune significantly outperforms the Harden/Howard/Terrence triune.

Now take it a step further and look at how each player performed over the last 2 years without either Harden/Howard on the court. It's not even close. DMo is the better sidekick to Harden/Howard and DMo is the better player sans both Harden/Howard.

 

I spent some time on his stats too. Jones is a weird case. +/- and winshares seem to suggest he's better than DMo. And Jones has a better shooting % while also blocking more shots. I was surprised.

But, if you more carefully compare them (basketball-reference), you see that DMo is a better shooter at every range except layups/dunks, where they are (surprisingly) about equal. However, DMo shoots a lot more 3-10ft shots and 3pters, which are harder than the shots Jones takes and skew his percentages.

So how can DMo be better at everything and yet still have worse winshares? It's gotta come down to the fact that DMo had to fill in a lot for Howard.

 

Beat me to it!

 

RAPM and RPM seem to lean towards DMo while some other stats are skewed towards Jones. I think if you include some film analysis with the raw stats, you would come out favoring DMo over Jones because it will show "how" they got the numbers they ended up with.

 

basketball-reference lineups


and we're not even talking about the playoffs here.

 

basketball-reference lineups


and we're not even talking about the playoffs here.

 

Just wanted to put all this here together. Just to summarize, Terrence Jones is so replaceable, that the Rockets could immediately improve by cutting him and signing any random hobo off the street.

Terrence Jones is so replaceable, he's going to lose minutes to 2 of bballholic's 2015 first round flops.

Terrence Jones will play somewhere between 2-10 more years in the league, and may or may not win a championship by being up to the 8th best player on a team.

Look, I get that you're kind of sour that Daryl has done an exceptional job trolling you this summer. I agree that I'd rather not give Terrence Jones a huge extension, and that I prefer Motiejunas to start and get the lion's share of the minutes. I don't think that your position that Jones will never be a 6th man on a championship team is unreasonable or unlikely, either.

It just comes off as ridiculous that you really believe that any random D-Leaguer/rookie/China vet could come in and produce at TJones' level in the regular season. Maybe you don't value the regular season at all, but having someone who plays exceptionally against half of the league that you can bring off your bench does have value, especially on a rookie deal. We've got a center with balky knees who absolutely needs to be put on the Dwyane Wade management program, a potential flash-in-the-pan coming off of a career threatening injury, a sashimi-raw 2nd-year player, and THE CHUCKWAGON. For all his faults, Jones is going to need to be able to play and win games for the Rockets this year. Maybe I'm optimistic, but I'll take the small chance of TJones breaking out in a contract year, combined with his floor of solidly average regular season play, over a future pick or less.

 

That's not what I've said. What I clearly said was Terrence is a JAP and could be replaced by a VETERAN at the minimum. That's not a random dleaguer. But an established vet signed at the minimum. Tyler Hansbrough is a perfect example of what I'm talking about. Hansbrough will rebound much better, he plays better D, and he gets to the FT line and converts at an absurd rate. Hansbrough could easily replace (and most likely improve) Terrence's contributions.

No question we need a 4th big. I'd take whatever assets we could get for Terrence and signing a guy like Boozer (or Hansbrough or Dalembert) over Terrence any day for winning regular season games and winning in the playoffs when things really get rough.

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By the way, if you're going to be accurate in my player assessments you have to realize I do evolve on them. As far as Dekker I did not believe we were interested in him at first and I didn't see him as being a difference maker. But a few days before the draft I received some intel that confirmed we were indeed interested in him. And I posted about it here:

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=9868606&postcount=38458

After that I started re-examining Dekker's game and came to the conclusion that perhaps he could be the BPA because his size would allow him to slide to the 4 for us. Now, I'm not totally sold on Dekker yet. And I'm for sure not convinced he'll be anything more than just a good role player. I know he'll scrap. I know he's got great character and intelligence. But I'm not convinced how he'll play against bigger 4's or quicker 3's. So it's wait-and-see for me. Knowing Morey was seriously interested in him did cause me to re-evaluate him. I'm still sticking to most of what I said above though. I don't see star in him. But if he can fire that 3-ball he can be a very good role player and better yet if he can switch on and off defending 3's and 4's he'll be an outstanding role player.

Harrell has surprised me somewhat. But I'm not going to change my evaluation based on him throwing some dunks in summer league. That's foolish. He'll have to prove he can defend 4's on the NBA level.

Christian Wood - most definitely a 3-4 year project IF he even makes it. That dude was a total zero defensively in summer league. Absolutely NO WAY he can hang with NBA bigs right now. And maybe never.

 

After thinking on this a little more: TJones should be the starter at the beginning of the season. He stands to benefit the most from the addition of Lawson, and his strengths compliment the starters a little better than DMos.

Now if you're asking me who is the better player, it's DMo hands down, but in November/December that doesn't really matter. If I'm the Rockets front office, I want TJones to look sparkly going into the "early trade deadline" ie December 15-19. If TJones finally becomes the complete player that we've been waiting for, then keep him. But if you believe his production is just a result of what Lawson, Harden, and Dwight are creating for him, then you trade him "high".

Trading TJones now doesn't make sense to me. His value is low, and every team thinks they are playoff bound and have zero holes on their roster. By mid-December, TJones will probably have great stats and multiple teams will see their own flaws.

 

I can definitely see this as a possibility if we don't move Jones here in the next couple months for somebody like Sullinger or Perry Jones or others.

The Rockets have in the past done the same thing...play the inferior player they wanted to trade with the starters to hopefully boost his trade value.

 

what a surprise...this thread turned once again into a haters thread.

I hope some people here who say Jones is as good as a minimum vet are prepared to eat crow when he gets his 15 per.

 

I doubt anyone will seriously care, it might garner some laughter, but since it won't be with the Rockets and in all likelihood will be with a scrub team somewhere, I doubt it causes that much commotion.

 

We are to deep. I can't think of rotations with all our players

If players were willing we could create the best bench in the nba

Imagine for the first substitution in the game be Ty/brewer/Dmo/Capella

Beverly/Harden/Ariza/jones/Howard should start

Bevs defense should be used on the currys and Russell's, jones should be there to help collect the boards with Dwight

2nd unit: Ty/harden/brewer/Dmo/Capella would destroy most teams bench

I would love to see small ball line up of Ty/bev/harden/Ariza or Dmo/Howard

It's gonna be tricky getting kj/Thornton/dekker/hays all good playing minutes

Kj and Capella need minutes though. I want Capella playing 20 a game