What happens if......all of the following occur Castro rebounds to somewhere between last year and 2013, and is decent Altuve proves last year wasn't an aberration, he is just finally strong enough to stand up to the long season and last year is in fact, what he is Lowrie plays like he did last time he was here, and we keep him Springer stays healthy...and not necessarily improves, but does what he did last year over a full season...that would be 35+ HR and around 100 RBI The duo of Carter and Gattis combine for 65+ HR and a .240 average Singleton is up and down, but shows actual major league ability Keuchel and McHugh prove to be legit #2/3 starters, both slightly drop off from last year but prove to be more than just run of the mill mid rotation starters Appel is in Houston by June, not because of a failure of our rotation but because his "stuff" finally translates into results, and he is dominating the minors The bullpen ends up being one of the top 15 in baseball....not dominant and not an absolute shutdown bullpen, which wouldn't be realistic, but a good solid, reliable pen Obviously the chances of ALL of those things happening is not great...but, individually ALL of those things are very realistic. We would likely lead the AL in HR and be one of the top scoring teams in the league, and i'd say between 86-90 wins would be very realistic What ya think Clutchfans
Out of all the things you mentioned, believe it or not the only thing I feel is unlikely to happen is Altuve duplicating the season he had last year (simply because he was seemingly on fire for the entire season which is always tough as a hitter... not because it was an "aberration"). I like the bullpen... I think McHugh has a chance to be "better", and Kuechel will be fine (also, neither expected to fall off a cliff, which would be the real problem if they were to "regress"). The lineup will be feast or famine.... but will be considered one of the "best" when its feast-time. And with impending arrivals of possibly more "consistent" hitters like Correa and Moran, I feel they'll eventually get to the right balance. My biggest expectations are that there finally won't be any more "experimentation"... the Houston fans should be seeing the best possible team they can physically field every night. There's still a ways to go to rebuilding the brand/interest of baseball here, but a little success now will go a long ways towards 2016 and beyond where higher expectations should be warranted.
I don't think any of those things are even remotely unrealistic, I would even say likely in most cases. I think you are underselling the pen. The Sipp/Neshek/Qualls/Gregorson combo should be spectacular, and Josh Fields showed flashes of dominance last season. I fully expect this to be a top 10 bullpen. I don't expect Altuve to repeat last year, but I still expect him to be great. As for Springer, health and repeating last year seems to be on the low end of my expectations. Likewise, there's no reason to not expect Carter and Gattis to not combine for those numbers if healthy. I've always said the .735 OPS Castro had in 2012 was a realistic showing. His 2013 was a fluke, and caused him to change his approach. If he gets back to being a more patient contact hitter he can get back to that 2012 level. To me Singleton and Rasmus are the wild cards. Rasmus has 2 great seasons in his career, if he can have another one he could be spectacular. And we all know about Singleton. If both of those guys can have could years this could be a top 5 offense, if not I expect us to be a middle of the road offense.
I really think we are a top 5 offense without big years from Singleton and Rasmus IF Castro/Altuve/Springer/Carter/Gattis do what we are talking about. That's already 110+ HR with just those guys. I think if Singleton OR Rasmus have a a good year, we could be as good as anyone in the league in runs scored. Now admittedly, that would not come with good consistent scoring, we could get there putting up 10 runs one night and 2 the next, but in the end we could be right at the top. Power is down so much in baseball, and we are loaded with it. I'd say if the 5 guys I mentioned perform, and one more offensive player has a big year we will definitely go into September in contention
And since this is a best case scenario thread, when you look at our projected lineup over the last 2 years. I showed their best season (first number), and their average OPS over the last 2 seasons. Altuve .830 (2014)__.756 Lowrie .791 (2013)__.738 Springer .804 (2014)_.804 Carter .799 (2014)___.785 Gattis .810 (2014)___.791 Rasmus .840 (2013)__.792 Valbuena .776 (2014)_.758 Castro .835 (2013)___.741 Singleton ????? I think every single guy is more than capable of producing that combined number on the right. And I also think everybody (excpet Castro) capable of repeating the more optimistic number on the left. This has the potential to be a spectacular lineup 1-9.
Unless Springer and Lowrie both have really has a good years OBP wise (which is possible) I don't see us having a high enough team OBP without Rasmus and/or Singleton doing well. Our power could give us a solid lineup, but not elite.
Specifically on the pen, I sure hope you are right but i'm not as confident as you. I do think we will be better there, but.... Sipp was good last year, but if you go back several years you see him following up a 2.9 era with a 4.1, then following a 3.0 era with 4.4 and 4.8's, leading up to last year. Hopefully he finally found it and will be consistent, but i'm not ready to declare him a major part of a top 10 pen Neshek was great last year, but is 34 years old, was mediocre in 2013 and spent large portions of 2012, 2011 and 2010 as a guy in his 30's pitching in the minors. Again, he was great last year and has had other very good years in the majors when he was younger. I hope he repeats last year but it's far from a sure thing Qualls was pretty good last year, but in the end he blew 6 of 25 save chances which is far from outstanding. He is also a guy who has recorded a 5+ era in 2 of the past 5 seasons and is 36 years old. I hope he has another good year but really wouldn't be shocked if he doesn't Gregerson is the one guy who has been very consistent, and consistently good for several years now. The only bad spot he really has on his record was last year when put in the closer role, he struggled and blew 3 of his 6 opportunities. When moved back to the set up role he went right back to being excellent. Maybe he is a guy who is better without that extra stress/pressure on him. Or maybe it was a very small sample size and strictly a coincidence that when put in that role he struggled. His K rate was also down last year. I do think Gregerson is likely to have a nice year Fields was really pretty dominant last year. He had two bad stretches, in late April he went through a 5 game stretch where he gave up 14 earned runs in 3 innings. Then in mid August he went through another stretch where he gave up 7 earned in 4 innings. Outside of those two little poor stretches, he was absolutely dominant. Outside of those two stretches he threw scoreless innings in 40 of 44 games...I'm on board with Fields I just think that there are too many questions about some of these guys to say i'm underrating the pen. Sure do hope you are right though
Maybe, but offensive numbers aren't what they used to be. Without a big year from Rasmus or Singleton our numbers would be laughable if compared to 8-10 years ago...but in today's game, with just replacement level numbers from those two and 3b we could still be top 5
yup, some great possibilities in here. I'm hopeful McHugh can avoid the injury bug--it felt like (and I'm not looking back to confirm) he often had hand/finger/nail issues resulting from his grip over the last 2 years. Those things seem like they won't go away if it's just part of his style. Hopefully he can pitch more innings
Not to be negative, but I don't think ALL of these things can happen. Especially when you consider the Rangers should be much improved simply due to getting injured players back. Angels and Mariners should also be very tough. We need to be comparing our team vs. the competition to determine how many wins we might get, not just comparing us vs. ourselves in isolation.
Probably more than 20 teams could make the case that if everything goes right, things look bright. But if the real question is whether if most things go right, do we have a chance at the playoffs, then another question must be answered. How do the favored teams fare? Division wise, the Angels would certainly have to cool off some and Oakland & Seattle would have to do no better than hold par from last year for us to even have a longshot chance. We were 19 games back from the wildcard last year. 28 behind the division winner. That is a lot of ground to make up. Still, I could see us within 6-8 games of the wildcard come September if all goes well.
man im excited for baseball season to start up...nothing like it. the astros will surprise a lot of MLB fans...looks like we're finally turning the corner
Spring is around the corner, I can hear the grass growing, hope and optimism are in the air. The smells and sounds of the ballpark will bring excitement. I welcome this thread and look forward to the new season. Play ball!!
One dude that I think will play another big role: Brett O. I think he can give us a sub 4 ERA from the fourth spot of the rotation.
That would be huge I think our rotation will be solid, just missing a true ace which, unfortunately, doesn't seem to be in the organization
Agreed. Looks like we may have to go to FA for that one... or trade. I just cannot see this team spending barrels of money on an Ace. Not because of being cheap, but because of how bad those contracts end up. The Yankees and CC Sabathia could be a best case scenario and his contract was great for the first 4 years and awful for the next 4 (or at least the previous 2).