The worst decision you could make would be to buy bonds now. It's not a bad time to pick up stocks right now. Some are really beaten up. edit...That said be cautious for some more downside. Maybe look to average in over the next 60 days.
Spike in oil was massive. So big there now is disconnect for moment. Either someone blew up or someone knows something regarding Saudis cutting production. Nothing yet I. Wires
If you have such a long time horizon then consider getting into bitcoin with a DCA method.. amount corresponding with your appetite for risk and/or understanding of blockchain tech Seriously
Yellen speaks this morning and could be sell the news event right out of the gate. However, I think there will be buyers and will try to run it up to the weekly 50 day moving avg. this move up could be very significant into end of year. I can't rule out new highs before going into a deep bear market. The central banks are already starting to panic. Not saying it's going to new highs - but can't rule that risk out. 1915-1925 spx maybe an initial target zone on this bounce
Best week in awhile.... Should have been my best week ever but I left a lot on the table. I did manage to have my best day ever on Wednesday. Hopefully this volatility continues thru the end of the year.
I agree for me too. ** The way Russell 2000 behaved today, made it look like an oversold bounce. It had some resistance near 1100 and finished in the red for the day. Stocks aren't out of the woods yet. Given that vix is still 21.99, volatility is around, and I'll be playing the choppiness. I like to call these times "the wild west"
Couple questions: (1) do you subscribe to a news service? (2) Do you work on a prop desk or for yourself?
"you can't take away the drugs and expect the market to stay high" <iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/lZBoP2aBbuw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Peter Schiff on QE4 .. embed didn't work in the above post https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZBoP2aBbuw&feature=em-uploademail
if QE keeps going, then new highs by end of year.. but when it's gone KABOOM. bear market as I mentioned above.
Peter Schiff has been wrong about just about everything he's predicted the last 5 years. People like to blame the end of QE for market falls, but QE fades out over time - it's been being phased out for the last 10 months, so any drop in the market could be conveniently blamed on it. The reality is that this drop - like the ones before it blamed on the end of previous QE's - are likely much more the result of actual world events. QE ending didn't cause a major slowdown over the last 3-4 months in Europe. It didn't cause China to slow down. It didn't bring Ebola to the US. It didn't cause Greece to threaten to exit their bailout due to electioneering or cause Greek debt rates to spike. Just like the end of previous QEs didn't cause Eurozone collapse fears or the potential debt ceiling breach and the like. It's a convenient thing to blame, but the market is not bubbling up artificially. PE ratios haven't skyrocketed or anything like that - there are real world earnings here. Even if they are partly the result of QE - presumably, they are since propping up the economy was the point of QE - those don't disappear when QE goes away. Apple doesn't stop selling a gazillion iPhones. Exxon doesn't stop pumping oil. J&J doesn't stop selling toothpaste. There will be volatility due to uncertainty, but there's no reason a program that's tapers from $10B/month to $0 would collapse the economy, when going from $80B/month to $10B/month did nothing at all.
PE ratios are at historically high levels. If QE doesn't matter, then why 3 rounds of it, with a 4th to come? It's definitely got something to do with propping up the market with cheap $$
There hasn't been enough growth in the consumer segments of the economy to grow sales organically. The fed knows that, the companies know that. So they do all they know how to.. print $$ and offer stock buybacks with cheap $$ Starting QE didn't fix the underlying issues and ending it certainly won't help either.
All I can say is..the trend is your friend. Don't try to catch a falling knife or step in front of a train.
Forward PE ratios are in the 15-16 range for the S&P500. That's not bubble territory. QE matters - the theory is that it helps give the economy a boost. It's no different than deficit spending - the idea is that you pump money into the economy, and that starts a chain reaction to grow the economy. That doesn't mean it creates a market bubble - if the economic growth is sustainable, there's no reason that removing QE would cause a market crash. There are any number of reasons for the market to go down like Europe problems, China problems, ebola problems, etc. But all the hysteria over QE is just that. Everything all the naysayers have predicted about the Fed and QE the last several years have been not just wrong, but completely 100% wrong (inflation, unwillingness to taper, QE-infinity, etc).
Futures are up already. Let's see if this market can get through spx 1906 dma with russell 2000 not lagging and selling off. Need to see russell 2000 push over 1100 back to 1600 to end the year.
