Oh no doubt but it is easy to assume such thing when a player continues to get hurt every year Holic. Example we all can guess/assume Rose will sustain another injury this season. Example two: We all can assume or predict Cushing will sustain another season ending injury. We can also assume Harden, Durant, Howard, Lebron will not sustain a season ending injury because they haven't sustained one up until this point in their careers. If you are a gamble man which one would you put your money on?
There is a greater change that the pellies will suffer more injuries to their big top players than the rockets will to theirs. Davis, Gordon, Anderson and Holiday have all suffered major injuries. Once you suffer an injury, that body area being more likely to suffer a reaggravation (eg Arian foster and his darn hamstrings). Even when something seems completely healed it will often really never be the same again. In addition, other body parts tend to overcompensate and therefor end up being hurt too. Players who suffer a knee injury or Achilles injury come back and hurt something else like another knee, etc. the reason you would bet on more pellies being injured, all things equal , if that their existing injuries at lead to other injuries. That's why people go for a long time without apparent injury, and then all of a sudden it's one after another. If I had to make a bet as to which team would have more serious injuries there's no doubt in my mind it would be the pellies. In this case, the past is a good predictor.
LOL. You can? Are you a Vegas oddsmaker? Bro, you're just guessing. Yeah, agreed. I already said that.
1fore·cast verb \-ˌkast; fȯr-ˈkast\ : to say that (something) will happen in the future : to predict (something, such as weather) after looking at the information that is available forecast also fore·cast·edfore·cast·ing Full Definition of FORECAST transitive verb 1 a : to calculate or predict (some future event or condition) usually as a result of study and analysis of available pertinent data; especially : to predict (weather conditions) on the basis of correlated meteorological observations b : to indicate as likely to occur ================ Forecasting is an important tool in business world - using past performance to predict the future, if there's correlation between the two. Coin flips are always 50/50, because there's no correlation between any two individual flip. But medical conditions (muscles, bones, nerves, etc) can be more accurately predicted, because there's correlation between you medical history and future health. Why do you think your doctor keeps your medical record? In other words, some guesses are better or more likely to occur than others... :grin:
You nor any other poster here knows whether the probability of major injury is greater for New Orleans than Houston. And that is the original point I was making.
That might be your common sense. But your common sense is just guessing. You have no idea which team has the higher probability of serious injury next season.
Of course you can by age and previous injury history. Odds are great that Eric Gordon will miss at least 15 games next season and quite possibly many more. Why? Because in six years he's played 65 games in a season exactly once. Predicting the future is always "guessing" based on the past. You're trying to reinvent reality with this whole you're just guessing tangent.
Keep in mind, I'm not arguing who WOULD have better odds (though I'd still bet on NO), I'm saying which team would have higher odds based on a Vegas book... that's all. Completely different from what you've been arguing.
Or Bledsoe. It's either a straight trade for Dragic or a S&T for Bledsoe. Hate to change the subject but BBalcholics chemically induced postings are bordering on an intervention.
See my post before this one. Didn't say I did. I said I know which team would have higher odds on a Vegas book.
The medical history of the two teams (Davis/Anderson/Gordon v.s. HHA) tells me the probability of major injury is greater for New Orleans than Houston, because we can use medical history to forecast future health conditions. And that is the point I was making. In other words, our guesses are more accurate than yours...
Age and previous injury history, eh? Ok...lay out the formula for determining the probability of major injury to each team.
