I keep hearing how this draft is one of the deepest in recent memory. Where a #20 pick in this particular draft would be the equivalent of a # 10 pick in mostly any other draft. With that being the case, if a clear cut #1 pick emerges from the combine, and a team would fall in love with the player, what type of trade would convince the Texans for trading the #1 pick? Also, with such a deep draft, does the value of a #1 pick go down? On top of that, I keep hearing how Maziel, Bridgewater, and Bortels are pretty close in rating, and all of them having holes in their games; I think it dilutes the potential for a juggernaut haul for the # 1 pick from the Texans. With all that being the case, it seems as McClain has stated before, the pick WILL BE one of the 3 quarterbacks. And I like the fact that Bortels has guts in his ability. Manziel and Bridgewater are comfortable being to 10 picks. Bortels, whom I read had to be kicked out of the film study while breaking curfew has really intriged me the most. 6'5" 236 lbs and hands just a tad smaller than Manziel, with apparently very good speed!!!
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McClain says whatever serves the team. Of course he says QB since the best chance to get multiple picks on a trade down is if a team that loves a QB thinks he won't be there for them. But with 3 equals it is less likely. Cleveland would have to think Mazeil adds maximum value to the franchise, which they could, possibly not just for his skill but in his high national profile and excitement for their suffering fans. This is an entertainment business. Relating to the chart values for trades, it could be that this year's draft the lower position drafting team could give less because the lower picks have higher relative value in a deep draft. Chart: http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php
Todd McShay thinks the Rams love Clowney and would probably want to move up. At around 6:05. <iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/TWt_T8-tB0A" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> I say trade down with the Rams and get 2, 13 44(2nd) and maybe a 4th. See if they could trade down again with Cleveland. The #2 for 4, 26, 35 and the lowest of their 3rd rounders. So one pick could possibly end up being 7.
The Rams have a ton of value at 2. There is zero reason for them to trade up...not happening. Everything is based on the Texans and their draft goal. If the Texans get the BPA and they take Clowney, the Rams will look to sell their pick (ie. the Jags or Browns)...ensuring one of those teams select their QB. The Rams are gonna get the best value for their pick guaranteed.
A CBL special? The Rams would never give you that kind of value to move up one spot. On top of all that, I doubt the Rams would take Clowney to begin with. They can't afford another guy like that on their DLine.
LOL at that haul for moving up 1 spot in the draft. This is not like trading baseball cards with your 5 year old brother. In the end I doubt the Texans trade the pick. I do not see why so many people think we can get this kind of value for a pick in a draft where there is not a consensuses number 1 pick and there is great value up and down draft boards. No team in the first half of the draft is going to give us 2 first rounders for this pick, just stop the nonsense. I think at best we could flip the pick for a first and possibly a second, more like a 3rd IMO.
yeah, I just don't see the texans netting a ton for the #1 pick in this draft. AS for the Rams...they have a good thing going with stock piling picks and young talent. I don't see them giving up much to get Clowney. If anything, I could see they are in a good position to trade back in the latter part of the top 10 and still get a player they like.
If the Falcons really want Clowney, we need to float the rumor that we are taking him, or someone else is looking to trade up and take him. Maybe get their first this year and next and a 2nd or 3rd rounder. I'd be ok with something like that. The dream scenario is Cleveland, but who knows what they want.
According to the NFL Draft Value Chart, if the Texans move down to say #4 with Cleveland, the Texans would receive #26 (worth 700pts) and # 35 (worth 550 points). The total of 1250 points is the relative difference for the value of the #1 overall pick and the #4 pick. That trade would give the Texans #'s4, 26, 33, and 35. Quite a few holes could be filled with that deal and it is very realistic and practical based on how teams use the draft value chart. It may also require the Texans to give up something like a 5th or 6th rd pick to make the numbers match.
I just don't see how value charts work anymore. Draft picks have become more valuable in general. And draft picks in this draft (which Mike Mayock says is the best in 10 yrs) are all the more valueable. Then there's the value of the #1 pick, which wildly depends on the talent at the top of the draft. No Andrew Luck = less value. So my point is that the value of our pick is clearly whatever the market will bare, and I don't think the market for our #1 pick correlates to the Draft Value Chart. Quite frankly, it might be worth it to take less than "fair value" to move back. We don't exactly have a lot of leverage; and we've got a lot of holes to fill.
I see your point but in the end if any of the teams looking for a Qb value any of the top rated QB's high the value of the pick doesn't decrease. If it does it wont be a significant drop.
I agree that generally there's never really value in moving back when there's not a franchise QB in the mix. But the new CBA probably have raised the value of top-5 picks, since bonuses for these picks are no longer as ludicrous as they used to be. The ability to lock up Clowney for ~$5mil/yr is fairly lucrative if a team believes he's the next Julius Peppers. I think it's possible a team moves up to grab Clowney, and the Texans fall back to draft a QB. If Atlanta isn't so short on depth and need picks in a bad way, that would actually be a decent target. I don't think the Browns will trade to the #1 for a non-QB though.
So if Clowney is the incentive for teams to move up to #1, do you think the emergence of Mack potentially undercuts that a bit, especially with the 3-4 teams? I think given Clowney's work ethic questions, it's less likely a GM wants to risk his job by giving up a draft haul to move up to pick him #1. I just don't see a lot of incentive for teams to trade up to #1. You want a pass rusher? There's two. You want a LT? There's two. You want a franchise QB? There's three. You want a WR? Deepest WR draft in recent memory. Where is the incentive to move up to #1? I get that it just takes one team to fall in love with a guy, but ...
The lack of value in selecting at #1 got me thinking what value would people accept for the #1 pick. I dont think we will get the dollar for dollar value that people are proposing ie. our #1 for Clevelands #4, #26, #35. But what if Cleveland offered #4 (1800pts) and #35 (550pts) for #1 (3000pts)? We are basically getting 75 cents on the dollar according to the draft pick value calculator but we get the extra early second round pick. Basically, if we have to take less for our #1 pick, how much less would you take?
Well, the idea for my response is that there's no longer the monetary risk of trading up into a top selection. and therefore it has a higher value than it used to. But certainly if there are viable alternatives at lower picks, teams won't bother to trade up. I do believe there are teams who are certainly willing to move up to #1 in an NFL draft for a non-QB. But I don't follow the draft process enough to know if this is such a draft. If you are correct that Mack is 1A to Clowney's 1, the the answer is clearly no.
Truth be told he probably isn't 1A. Especially because Clowney has more scheme versitility and is rarer specimen. So I take your point. If the work ethic issues don't scare teams away, I could see a team like Atlanta making a move. ...but I still think the chances of being able to trade out of the #1 pick this year are remote.
