This is essentially the same argument. You give yourself more options to rely on if the "high efficiency" shots aren't as available. The benefit being that (in theory) you won't have as many dry spells. If the Rockets could generate mid-range shots that are converted at a 60% clip, they'd do so. A lot of players shoot 40% from 3-point range. How many players in the league do you think shoots 60% from mid-range (that is, outside the point but inside the 3-point line)? Those kind of shots are much harder to come by.
You are so smart. Why don't all NBA teams jack up a 100 threes a game? You should be running an NBA team.
Please don't quote him. His posts just make you shake your thread. He doesn't understand the fact that there are so many variables in play that you can't quantify for. Such as percentage on a contested 3 vs a contest midrange (where players routinely fade and have a move), or teams adjusting their defense. That's ok though, we have the secret about shooting 100 3s a game that the Miami heat and pay Riley don't know about..
"3 points is better than 2 points. And no points is better than no 3 points, unless they're a high % no points" -
HAHAHAHAAH!!! But seriously, it is kind of true. Because some no points lead to more offensive rebounds than other no points. And some no points can get your opponent into foul trouble.
Some are thread makers, some are thread shakers. Anyway, to answer your question - Morey has addressed this "contested shot" statistics before. As well as "clutch shots" statistics. And guess what he found - contested shots and clutch shots have a lower percentage than normal shots. Either way, the simple and obvious answer is, once again - nobody shoots 60%.
Suddenly I feel like reading this old classic again: "The No-Stats All-Star" http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/magazine/15Battier-t.html?pagewanted=all Newer members should definitely read it. And plenty of old-timers could use some refreshing on the subject.
In terms of points per possession? I'd expect the Rockets to hit 3 pointers at at higher than 33% clip than I do mid-range shots at 50% clip.
Every team in the last decades. Just watched old Bulls games with Michael Jordan from the 80ies, and he was essentially a midrange shooter, even more than Dirk.
Harden has NUMEROUS opportunities for open midrange jumpers after he comes off the pick at the top of the key. And on 95% of them all he does is dribble the ball low, stick his ass out, wait for both the big man and his defender to get back into the key, and his own man to once again move from his hip to a better defensive position - then he backs it out again. Seriously what on earth is the point of the P'n'R when the majority of the time that is the outcome? I honestly watch it and wonder why: a) he didn't take the wide open shot b) he didn't drive it when the defense was mismatched c) why did he just let the defense reset and waste at least 8 seconds of the shot clock.
In my previous post I said that we should take this in the context of defensive, playoff level basketball. So a contested three or contested midrange, you really thing the return off of the 3 is going to be nearly as much? The % for both are gong to be lower but 3pt % will drop drastically. Physiologically speaking , for most people. When shooters are wide open they have to give little extra effort in shooting the long 3 ball, when contested they will hit them at a far lower clip...why? Less neuromuscular strength to call upon, this is also the reason that we can shoot at a higher % the closer we move to the basket. The more motor units your body calls upon (for strength) the less control you have and less dextrous that you can be. With the added strength comes less accuracy. I can stand 6 feet from the basket and shoot the same way and hit shots all day. 30 feet away? Using far more strength and compound that with trying to take the defender off, its a very difficult shot. There are very few people in this league that can shoot contested 3s and they are on another level. For our players to shoot contested 3s is just not smart. You can get so much craftier with the midrange to where you can still shoot over the defender, not so much with 3 ball. It makes it harder for teams to strategize a defensive plan to contain the opposing team. It really doesn't need much validation. Around June, when the rockets never play, the teams that are amongst the top will be doing this.
Well...duh? I hope you don't think you needed morey to tell you that a hand in your face would make you shoot worse... I won't address this argument, the 100 3s a game people are not taking the countless other variables into account. The play of elite teams for I don't know how long, should validate this enough. There comes a point where theory shouldn't validate reality and reality should validate the practicality of theory. I'm sure the Miami Heat are down in the dumps about all the missed opportunities in shooting their midrange jumpers while they coast their way to another championship. At the end of the day, 3 or no 3, I hope this team figures it out.
Morey disagrees with you. He says an open mid-range jumper is better than a contested 3. He has never said a contested mid-range jumper is better than a contested 3. And if my eyes of watching the Rockets are any indication, it's clear the Rockets believe contested 3 > contested 2. I don't know what data supports or what players psychologically supports, but I would trust their judgement on this.
Problem with midrange is only Harden, Parsons, Lin, and to a limited extent AB and TJones, can create their own shots or playmake. Garcia, Casspi are so awkward when they have to put the ball on the floor that they'll sooner than later commit a TO. More talent, guys. We need more talent.
Obviously if a player is open from mid range he would have to take the shot. It really all depends on the opportunity and the personnel. This team's style of run n gun, dribble penetration is very conducive of 3 pt opportunities since it sucks a lot of perimeter defenders away for an open 3 ptr. However if a players 3pt shot is off, then the player should make an effort to step a little bit closer and go for the midrange to get their shooting rhythm back. This is probably one of the important aspect of why a midrange is important.