2013/2014 Playing time distribution

I can't see harden playing that much.

I would take a few mins away from him and could see Garcia playing a few more

 

No way Harden averages more minutes this year. 40 mpg? We dont want to kill him.

PG: Lin 24, Bev 24
SG: Harden 36, Lin 6, Brewer 6
SF: Parsons 30, Casspi 10, Garcia 8
PF: Dmo 18, Jones 16, Howard 10, Parsons 4
C: Howard 25, Asik 23

Total:
Harden 36
Dwight 35
Parsons 34
Lin 30
Bev 24
Asik 23
Dmo 18
Jones 16
Casspi 10
Garcia 8
Brewer 6

 

Projected minutes distribution with the current roster:

Three-man guard rotation: James Harden 36 min/game, Jeremy Lin 32, Patrick Beverly 28
SF: Chandler Parsons 36, Francisco Garcia or Ronnie Brewer 12
PF: Terrence Jones or Donatas Motiejunas 20, Omri Casspi 16, Dwight Howard 12
C: Dwight Howard 20, Omer Asik 28

End of the bench: Either Francisco Garcia or Ronnie Brewer, either Terrence Jones or Donatas Motiejunas, Greg Smith, Aaron Brooks

Stashed in the developmental league: Isaiah Canaan, Robert Covington

Final two roster cuts: Marcus Camby, Reggie Williams

I still say both Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik are gone by February, though. In which case:

Three-man guard rotation: James Harden 36, Patrick Beverly 32, Mystery player (acquire via trade) 28
SF: Chandler Parsons 36, Francisco Garcia or Ronnie Brewer 12
PF: Mystery player (acquired via trade) 32, Omri Casspi, Terrence Jones, or Donatas Motiejunas 16
C: Dwight Howard 32, Greg Smith or Mystery player (acquired by trade) 16

I am projecting Lin, either Jones or Motiejunas, and the rights to the Greek kid to Milwaukee for Ersan Ilyasova, and also Omer Asik to Portland for C.J. McCollom and Robin Lopez. Houston's mystery third guard becomes either McCollom or Canaan, while their backup C becomes either Lopez or Smith.

 

40 is too much for Harden if you still expect him to put energy into defense.

 

OP is such a big DMo fanboy that it makes me angry every time I see a thread by him. Really? You think DMo will play 20 minutes per game and Asik only 18?

 

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=243824

 

Assuming a fully healthy roster, and disregarding garbage time, I think we'd utilize the following 10 players:

1: Lin, Beverley
2: Harden, Garcia
3: Parsons, Casspi
4: Motiejunas, Jones
5: Howard, Asik

I projected the minutes by partitioning each half into 4 parts of 6 minutes each. For each part, I considered the lineups I can imagine the coaching using and also predicted the probability each player would be used within that lineup:

Spoiler

1st/3rd quarter, 12:00 - 6:00

(Normal Lineup) [0.8]
Lin[0.8]/Beverley[0.2] - Harden - Parsons - Motiejunas[0.8]/Jones[0.2] - Howard

(Small Lineup) [0.1]
Beverley - Lin - Harden - Parsons - Howard

(Big Lineup) [0.1]
Lin[0.8]/Beverley[0.2] - Harden - Parsons - Howard - Asik

1st/3rd quarter, 6:00 - 0:00

(Normal Lineup) [0.4]
Beverley[0.8]/Lin[0.2] - Harden[0.8]/Garcia[0.2] - Parsons[0.8]/Casspi[0.2] - Jones[0.8]/Motiejunas[0.2] - Howard[0.6]/Asik[0.4]

(Small Lineup) [0.4]
Beverley - Lin - Harden[0.8]/Garcia[0.2] - Parsons[0.8]/Casspi[0.2] - Howard[0.5]/Asik[0.4]/Motiejunas[0.1]

(Big Lineup) [0.2]
Beverley[0.8]/Lin[0.2] - Harden[0.8]/Garcia[0.2] - Parsons[0.8]/Casspi[0.2] - Howard - Asik


2nd/4th quarter, 12:00 - 6:00

(Normal Lineup) [0.4]
Beverley[0.6]/Lin[0.4] - Garcia[0.6]/Harden[0.4] - Casspi[0.6]/Parsons[0.4] - Jones[0.6]/Motiejunas[0.4] - Asik[0.5]/Howard[0.5]

(Small Lineup) [0.4]
Beverley - Lin - Garcia[0.6]/Harden[0.4] - Casspi[0.6]/Parsons[0.4] - Asik[0.5]/Howard[0.4]/Motiejunas[0.1]

(Big Lineup) [0.2]
Beverley[0.6]/Lin[0.4] - Garcia[0.6]/Harden[0.4] - Casspi[0.6]/Parsons[0.4] - Howard - Asik


2nd/4th quarter, 6:00 - 0:00

(Normal Lineup) [0.4]
Lin[0.6]/Beverley[0.4] - Harden[0.8]/Garcia[0.2] - Parsons[0.8]/Casspi[0.2] - Motiejunas[0.6]/Jones[0.4] - Howard[0.7]/Asik[0.3]

(Small Lineup) [0.4]
Beverley - Lin - Harden[0.8]/Garcia[0.2] - Parsons[0.8]/Casspi[0.2] - Howard[0.6]/Asik[0.35]/Motiejunas[0.05]

(Big Lineup) [0.2]
Lin[0.6]/Beverley[0.4] - Harden[0.8]/Garcia[0.2] - Parsons[0.8]/Casspi[0.2] - Howard - Asik

Tallying it all up, here's the result for my expected minutes:

            p1       p2      p3     p4      mpg
Lin         82%      52%     64%    76%     32.9
Harden      100%     80%     40%    80%     36.0
Parsons     100%     80%     40%    80%     36.0
Motiejenuas 64%      12%     20%    26%     14.6
Howard      100%     64%     56%    72%     35.0
Beverley    28%      88%     76%    64%     30.7
Garcia      0%       20%     60%    20%     12.0
Casspi      0%       20%     60%    20%     12.0
Jones       16%      32%     24%    16%     10.6
Asik        10%      52%     60%    46%     20.2
Total       500%     500%    500%   500%    240.0

 

Lin (34), Beverley (14)
Harden (32), Garcia (4), Beverley (12)
Parsons (28), Garcia (16), Harden (4)
Jones(24), Howard (8), Parsons (6), Casspi/DMO (10)
Howard (24), Asik (24)

we have great depth this season and should exploit that as much as possible. The way I built this out was with the following logic:

1) Minimize Harden and Howard's minutes so they can both be fresh and playing at 100% on both ends of the floor. As such, I would much rather have Harden play 36 minutes of 100% effort on both ends instead of 42 minutes of step-back threes. Similarly, Howard should be playing in the low 30s ala Hibbert, since he is still a bit of an injury risk.

2) Utilize our incredible depth. Beverley, Garcia, and Asik should be playing at least 20 minutes each per game. These guys will help set the defensive tone, and can keep a lead when the starters sit.

3) Continue rotation at the PF position. We will start TJones for the most part, but then switch in Howard and Parsons depending on situational matchups.

4) Run the offense through Lin and Parsons more. In order to keep Harden fresh and aggressive on both ends, he needs ot play more of an Off-Ball role. Harden will of course dominate the ball when it comes down to crunch time, but look for Lin and Parsons to initiate the pick and roll or dribble drive more often while Harden becomes the recipient of the kick/secondary drive.

 

Wow nice work

 

Just some updated thoughts on the playing time distribution. I'll assume the same 10 players before, but I'll start out with some assumptions about how many minutes the players should get (just ball-parking it), and then derive the distribution by position from there:

60 = Lin_MPG + Beverley_MPG
36 = Harden_MPG = Harden_SG + Harden_SF
20 = Garcia_MPG = Garcia_SG + Garcia_SF
36 = Parsons_MPG = Parsons_SF + Parsons_PF
36 = Howard_MPG = Howard_C + Howard_PF
25 = Asik_MPG = Asik_C
27 = Casspi_MPG + DMO-or-Jones_MPG

PG_MIN = Lin_PG + Beverley_PG
SG_MIN = Lin_SG + Beverley_SG + Harden_SG + Garcia_SG
SF_MIN = Parsons_SF + Harden_SF + Garcia_SF
PF_MIN = Casspi_PF + Parsons_PF + Howard_PF + DMO-or-Jones_PF
C_MIN = Howard_C + Asik_C + DMO-or-Jones_C

Those constraints yield the following consequences:

• 36 minutes left at SG, split between Harden and Garcia
• Parsons gets 28 minutes at SF and 8 minutes at PF
• With Asik getting 25 minutes, there are 23 minutes remaining at C, split between Howard, D-Mo, and Jones
• If we allot zero minutes at C for D-Mo and Jones, then Howard plays 23 minutes at C, and 13 minutes at PF playing alongside Asik. The more minutes we give to D-Mo or Jones at C while holding Asik's and Howard's minutes constant, the more "Twin Towers" minutes we'll have.
• D-Mo and Jones, collectively, will likely get very few minutes in this rotation assuming Casspi finds his niche with this team. For instance, if Casspi is a 20 mpg player playing exclusively at PF, that leaves only 7 minutes a game for D-Mo or Jones. Its likely, to me, that one of them will not be in the regular rotation if the other front-court players are healthy.

 

If Lin & Beverley are playing 60 minutes, that would have to stretch into 48 minutes of PG and 12 minutes of SG. I don't see how Garcia gets time at SG unless we are playing a lot of small ball with Bev, Lin & Harden all together. (Or garbage time if we are blowing people out... though then I don't see how Lin & Bev get to 60 minutes average).

 

Bev(29) Lin(19)
Harden(37) Lin(11)
Parsons(35) Garcia(13)
Casspi(25) Howard(12) Dmo(11)
Howard(24) Asik(24)

Fairly confident that this will be the rotation on opening night.

In fact, there is a chance where Parsons takes all of Dmo's minutes at PF, and you either bump Garcia's minutes at SF to 24 or add Brewer into the mix.

There is a possibility that after all the hoopla of Dmo vs. Jones, neither of them end up in the rotation.

Let's be real, on merit alone, neither of them are good enough to be playing for a contender right now.

 

We will see plenty of that, IMO, especially in 4th quarters. I could see Harden getting maybe 30 minute at SG and 6 minutes at SF, with Garcia consequentially getting 6 minutes at SG and 14 minutes at SF.

 

I have to admit, Bev/Lin/Harden/Parsons/Howard is a lineup I really want to see in the regular season. In the right situations, they could give other teams fits.

(Playoffs would be a nice place to see it too...)

 

A very reasonable take. IMHO you are optimistic about the PT Asik gets. Has there ever been a competitive lineup featuring two players who could only shoot 6 feet from the basket in?

 

I'm afraid I am too. I'd like for Asik to get plenty of minutes, because I know how good a player he is. Realistically, its quite possible that he regresses this year or we can't make Howard+Asik work, and consequentially his minutes are limited to more like 15 mpg.