Japan Warns It May Fire On Chinese Aircraft Over Disputed Islands; China Retorts

The US is neutral on the matter. When the US says they'll defend Japan, I don't think they include the Senkaku Islands.

 

Further, while I am not a fan of war... the United States would crush China if it ever came down to an all out war. The military complex and technology of the United States far exceeds China. There is a huge difference in population, but the Unites States could eliminated hundreds of millions of Chinese in mere days. The Chinese would see any efforts to deploy their troops cut off and they would literally be sitting ducks.

It would have a HUGE long term effect on the USA economy, but it would destroy China.

 

Maybe in the short term. If there was a war the US would be one of the few countries with the infrastructure to manufacture some of the stuff china made. Prices would go up since you can't make stuff as cheap, but I don't if it would be a bad thing for at least the US.

 

We disagree.... The United States can say they are neutral, but aggression by the Chinese (whether it is or is not) will not be tolerated. I do not think there is any doubt whom the United States favors.

 

China is not the only country that has cheap labor. It would take awhile to build/tweak the infrastructure to have goods produced else where, but history has shown it can happen fairly quickly.

 

Japan and the US couldn't legally shut off the PRC's access to the Pacific as the 200 mile isn't territorial waters but under the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea is exclusive economic zone. That means that other countries still have freedom to pass through.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Convention_on_the_Law_of_the_Sea

It does say the coastal country can regulate but to what extent I am not clear but my understanding is that they have to allow for free passage. The bigger issue is mineral and fishing rights.

A blockade of Chinese traffic to the Pacific would be rightfully considered an act of war and I think international law would support that.

Taiwan still doesn't belong to the PRC and while relationships are very friendly it is doubtful that Taiwan would just allow the PRC to move Navy into their territorial waters even if it is to confront Japan over the Diayutai.

I think this is the most likely case that both sides will continue to sabre rattle primarily for domestic concern, but that neither really will go to war over them.

Keep in mind too that the both the PRC and Japan have many disputes with other neighbors regarding maritime territory. Any war that breaks out will inevitably drag the rest of the East and Southeast Asia into a conflict. While no one is happy with the status quo in the Eastern Pacific and South China Sea no one wants a war that will wipe out a half century of economic development to resolve it.

 

If I can answer both you and Nook because of the interdependence of the global economy the affect on the US economy from a war with the PRC, or even a war between the PRC and Japan without US involvement, is going to be bad even if the US can make up the manufacturing. While the US imports a lot from the PRC it also exports a lot to the PRC and the rest of Asia. Also while the US could eventually retool to make up for the loss of PRC manufacturing much of the infrastructure to do so no longer exist. Take steel for example, where much of the old US steel mills no longer exists and a significant portion of manufactured steel now comes from overseas. Even leaving aside the physical infrastructure because of the global finance system the US would be hit with a credit crunch as soon as the war began. Next you have to consider that a maritime war will drag in the rest of East and SE Asia so the US will not only lose trade with the PRC and Japan but also SK, Philippines, Vietnam, and etc.. An East Asia sea war would most likely plunge the world into a global depression.

Since Nook addressed the military side in a conventional naval war the US would crush the PRC. The PRC barely has a blue water navy and still probably can't even invade Taiwan let alone the Japanese home Islands. In an all out war though the PRC doesn't need a blue water navy as it has nukes and ICBM's to deliver them to anywhere in the US.

 

US imports > US exports to Asia. We have a huge deficit every year.

I don't know much about the steel business.

The US owns the printing press. Our whole credit system is pretty much based on the faith of the US government. If the US is the only superpower left I think people will be buying dollars. I know china buys American debt, but where will people put their money?

I did not know china could send nukes to the US.


I don't know if war would cause a depression. I don't think there will be a war. It probably just some Japanese politician trying to get some votes. We don't need people dying and people being denied their iphones, but like WW2 I don't think it would be terrible for the economy.

 

You make good points.

I will only add that infastructure does not necessarily mean within the United States assuming a WWIII type scenario (God let us hope that never happens).

Yes, China has nukes, and the cost of US lives would be horrendous, but I ultimately believe the technological and world reach of the United States would be too much. A nuke deployed on US soil would result in the complete destruction of China. You saw the response to 911. Can you imagine the response to a nuke?

 

There is no "winner" in any war between any major country in today's age. It will be lose-lose for everyone no matter the outcome. The only difference would be the amount of losing for any particular party. Heck, the US piled up historical debt just o "win" against Iraq. What makes anyone think our economy will not be totally screwed by an all-out war with China?

Hence, it will never happen. Because no party(Japan, China, or the US) would ever risk going to war under almost any circumstance. Although they do like to play a game of chicken with each other though, mostly for the benefit of popular support. Nothing like invented threat from the outside to bring out patriotism from the people. Disgusting in my mind, but historically never fail.

 

The biggest aggressor to China, or the Chinese people? I think it'd take a great leap forward of logic to charge the latter.

 

shinzo is being really dumb trying to pump yens out in order to drive deflation out and presumably begin an export-based recovery while simultaneously pissing off Japan's largest trade partner.

 

So true. If only China's citizens had .22LR and semi-auto AR-15's, they can repel the invaders. :grin:

 

Chinese will survive.

 

I don't think Japan is worth all that? What have they done for us lately besides femmebots?

In all seriousness, if you weigh the rewards vs risk factor, which I know cooler heads in the Pentagon will, you have to ask yourself the question, what if we lose? What if we win, but lose superpower status? Is Japan worth that? China has nukes and they're not exactly like Iraq. While the chances are low, stranger things have happened, i.e. the Spanish Armada or even the Revolution War. Unless invaded, we've had a history of going against countries what we ABSOLUTELY dominate. China's a little different as ICBMs can't be stopped or destroyed once launched. That's why I'm fairly certain we won't directly intervene over the dispute of the Island where I think most of the fighting will take place. I give it higher chance that we will intervene if a US base in Japan is attacked, but it's still not clear cut as Nook mentioned.

The bottom line is, most Americans just don't care unless an American base is attacked directly, thus nothing will happen. That's the thing about American democracy.

 

The US is treaty bound to defend Japan and even if they weren't I highly doubt the US would just not do anything if the PRC attacked Japan. I don't know the details of the treaty so I don't know if the US could not count the Diayutai / Senkaku Islands but certainly if the home islands were attacked the US would be obligated to defend Japan for a variety of reasons.

That said you are right that it isn't in the US's interest for another Sino Japan war. It really isn't in anyone's interest. If things really heat up with the Diaoyutai I suspect the US will apply a lot of diplomatic pressure to prevent it from breaking out into all out war.

 

Anytime I read something to do with the Chinese army, I shudder a bit.

That's not to say Japan shouldn't defend it's piles of dirt in water, but personally I wouldn't fire the first shot if I were them.

 

Yea, I thought about this. The treaty was written in a time right after WWII when we had had half the world's GDP and the only one with nukes. I'm not sure how much we'd hold to it today especially after Vietnam, South Korea and Iraq. While I don't know the technicalities of it, we didn't hold our obligations to South Vietnam. Of course, I'm not saying we won't, just that, I'm not certain.

 

CNN, BBC, and the Asahi Shinbum have nothing on this? Yeah, BS detector is going off.

And Mathlooon, just to let you know: If the Americans leave, the Japanese are not going to sit around all hunky dory. They WILL become a normal nation, with a normal military, that will continue to maintain good relations with the United States. That will never change.