Rockets & Knicks Basketbal Breakdown

I am glad someone finally started to talk about James Harden's defense, when before I have often seen Harden walking around not guarding anyone, nor help double team any opposing player who was hot at the moment.

He may not really have the habit of putting effort into defense when he was with the Thunders, where his role was mainly a six-man scorer.

Now that he has become a starter and 1st option of the Rockets, he needs to really put his mind and action into defense, just like Camelo Anthny has done to change the Knicks into a defense-oriented team.

 

Coach Nick said Lin could be a 20pts, 8 assists guy.

Out of curiosity, I checked basketball reference for guards who did that over a season. Of the active players:

Chris Paul
Russel Westbrook
Deron Williams
Byron Davis

Retired guys:
Magic Johnson
Tim Hardaway
Michael Jordan
Isiah Thomas
Oscar Robertson
Gary Payton

Full list

That got me curious what Lin's stats were as a starter on the Knicks (in 26 games):

18.5 p/g
7.7 a/g

I really had no idea his numbers were that good on the Knicks.

I'm still a little skeptical that Lin can be 20/8 guy over the course of a season simply because so few players in the history of the game have done it. But two things, those Knicks starter numbers were done when he was a rookie, and he's still very young.

I really hope he does 20/8 in a Rockets uniform...

 

We've seen it all season long. I specifically remember the Rockets getting burned against Portland because Lin, Harden, and Parsons would double Aldridge in the post (since he has no trouble scoring over Asik) and leave Lillard, Mathews, or Batum open beyond the arc. Those open or slightly contested 3's killed us in both games. In a lot of these situations, the defender closing out rushes it and fouls the shooter too (seen Lin do it multiple times). As much as I hate leaving the shooter open one pass away, I guess that's part of the defensive scheme. As I saw it at the time, the logic: better to allow the shooter to go for a 3 than allowing an automatic 2 pts by Aldridge? I've only noticed this scheme/trend against teams w/ good low post scorers though (Blazers, Lakers (1st game), Jazz, and Grizzlies).

 

I really enjoyed the analysis of our defense and how well we match up against East teams, especially the Knicks. Thanks for sharing, roxxy

I would have liked to see his breakdown of our 4th quarter defense that allowed Copeland to go off. I know that substitutions played a part in that, but there was pretty poor defensive transitions occuring which left him open or able to drive for a layup too often instead of forcing him to pass to a less hot hand.

 

I think he meant that we would see more games in the 20/8 range than that he would average 20/8.

20/8 is pretty much at the very TOP end of the most optimistic estimates of Lin's upper ceiling in terms of a season average. He would need to develop ideally and play in a system and with a coach that utilized his skills to the maximum.

I think 16/8 or 18/7 is probably a more realistic "optimistic" ceiling. And even that would put him solidly in "all star" territory in terms of actual play.

More realistically I would be very happy if he developed into a solid 15/6, 15/7 or 14/8 guy. Even accomplishing that would be amazing for a guy that the entire NBA almost missed on.

 

The solution to that is to have a weakside man come and double the post. If the ball is swung out of the post, then it's up to the players to rotate around effectively and close out.

 

I wonder how much Harden's 'passiveness' on defense is affected by
- Too much energy on offense
- Too many minutes and his trying to pace himself
- Harden trying his best to not foul out because they really need him on the floor
- 'hesitation' caused by over-thinking because he's mentally weighing trying to pace himself and whether or not to risk foul trouble

...

or he could just suck defensively. It's hard to know for sure and I think there's so many factors that fans (ie. without personal line into the locker room and the coaching staff) probably don't have enough information.

 

lol, those 29 points listed under Harden's by Garbage Time All Star Chris Copeland, aka Clifford the Big Red Dog.

29 points have never been less significant ever.

 

Dont forget there is one 'IF'.

 

I just watched it again and actually towards the end he says that he wouldn't be surprised to have Lin be around the 20 pt, 10 assist range... now how far that range actually IS for him is up in the air, because that could either mean 18/7 or 14/8, depending.

 

All teams help off one pass when there is middle penetration. The point of defences is to force baseline and avoid allowing middle at all costs. It is taught at all levels of basketball, and if defender allows middle that easily that another defender one pass away has to help, it will be a very poor defensive possession whether he helps or not. It is the choice of giving up a layup or three. It is right to choose the three.

 

tell mchale to watch this

 

It's not far-fetched... IF!!! McHale figures out how to get Harden and Lin to consitently mesh. That's a big, big IF.

 

By the way, I love how we finally, finally have a guy everybody acknowledges you just cannot guard 1 on 1.

 

I agree with your projection.

One thing missed when many people talk about the score is the number of shots the players takes (only for the sophisticated minds, FG% is more important). I bet Lin's FGA of last season is drastically different than this season.

Torocan, maybe you could give us some data on Lin's last season's average mins and average FGA. If 18.5p and 7.7a is the goal that we expect from Lin, then he should at least play the similar mins and make similar number FGA, right?

I mentioned in another thread, IMO, Lin should play around 33-35 mins with about 13-15 shots per game. Harden should be 35-38 mins with 22-25 shots. Parsons, 2Pat/Morris should make no more than 15 shots and Delfio and Douglas should play no more than 20 mins and 11 shots. If any play has hot hands, he gets about 3-5 more shots. I don't know if our coaches have such kind of idea or they just let players play.

 

Would agree with this in that not only are layups higher percentage, BUT there's more chance of fouling/being called for a foul, and free throws are some of the highest percentage shots all considered (unless you're Dwight) AND it makes it easier to get into foul trouble.

In the choice between whether I'd rather the Rockets have poor defense at 3's but good in the paint, or poor in the paint but good against 3's, I'd choose good in the paint... which I think is actually one of the stats that the Rockets are leading in. (it's the transition D which sucks; but apparently that was simply a pile of chemistry/miscommunication issues and appears to be improving, slowly, by the game.)

 

You can get Lin's starter splits data here:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/linje01/splits/2012/

344 FGA per 850 MP = 13.76 shots on 34 min

To be honest, I'd highly doubt that coaches would tell players "go get X number of shots", because imho that would cause a lot of people to over-think things and thus slow down their reactions. Lin looks 'tentative' enough, kthx, no need to have him over-think things more.

 

Thanks for the link. That is a very nice data site.

I mentioned the number of shots issue because there was a thread "our role players shoot too much" echoing similar concern. IMO, Douglas jacks up too much shots which some of them should be given to Harden since he is such an efficient scorer. I would want our coaches to have at least an idea on the rough number of the shots our key players make in each game. For example, they could just tell Douglas "pay attention to your shot selection", that would do.