Why is everyone against upgrading at PG (in the near future)?

I knew I should have mentioned some more numbers, but I didn't want to clutter up my previous post. Well, here are some more.

36.7% of Harden's assists were for 3-pointers.
28.9% of Lin's assists were for 3-pointers.

To me, this says that Harden tends to be more panicky, more apt to throw a desperate bailout pass.

When you combine this with the previous stat, the evidence mounts that Lin is the better playmaker.

 

It depends on the situation. The last shot should go to an open teammate. Of course Harden should have the ball in the clutch and if it comes down to having to take a shot with a few seconds left on the shotclock, no one is saying he shouldn't. I think people are just talking about initiating the offense and sharing the playmaking duties more evenly. This will also help save Harden's energy. He can't be playing 40 min every night for 82 games. From the tone of your posts, you seem to think Lin's playmaking is far below that of Harden's. I really don't agree, but that is your opinion and I respect that.

 

holy crap did you not read what I say... its a he said she said thing with the stats you are throwing out there. Im saying that I can spin it to say one thing and you can spin it say another. So its pointless.

Panicky at the rim??... I think its time for you to actually watch some games. I cant believe you really think that THIS stat actually proves that Harden is more "Panicky" when he kicks out when driving to the rim........ uhhh... You LOF'ers are worse then I thought originally.

 

Of course in that situation you give to the best palyer, Harden. No one is talking about that. We're saying Lin is a good playmaker himself and yes some do think he is better than Harden, however he's not a better player than Harden. Just want the team to figure out to utilize his skills to help the team win. Lin does have a lot of work to do with his game, no one would dispute that.

Stop assuming about what you think Lin fans want and actually read what they are writing. I don't care about Lin stats nor about the all stars, that's just a popularity contest anyways.

 

Lol at delusional fans who think the Rockets are getting CP3.

The chances are 0%.

 

No, but in any other situation -- i.e. for 90% of the game -- Lin should be making the plays. In my opinion. But I am willing to let the playmaking be 60% Lin, 40% Harden.

Your "most efficient PnR player in the league" has been shooting .383 the last 13 games. You call that efficient?

Whereas when Lin was making the plays the first two games, Harden shot an astounding .636.

So yes, I definitely want Lin to be the team's playmaker.

 

I don't agree with 90% Lin making plays. I think around 60/40 or a little more is good.

 

That's one person's opinion, stop lumping people into a group.

 

It would be nice if Lin was allowed to be the primary playmaker instead of a spot up shooter. Harden cannot run an offense. He has always been a secondary playmaker.

He is not Lebron or even as good as Wade or Kobe in terms of playmaking.

There is a reason why Lin's production plummeted when he was utilized in such a poor fashion. It hurt Harden as well.

 

So why don't you try to explain why 36.7% of Harden's assists were for 3-pointers, and only 28.9% of Lin's assists were for the same? Give it a try, maybe you can make something up.

Who said anything about being panicky at the rim?

The above numbers merely suggested to me that Harden is more panicky overall, not only at the rim. He's a lot more likely than Lin to toss a desperate bailout pass. Hence all those 3's.

 

Yes, that's what I said in the next sentence.

 

I don't think Harden is at Lebron's level yet, but the team is trying to also develop Harden. So I don't think Lin needs to initiate the offense all the time. As I said 60/40 is fine.

 

You just said that this stat says he's more panicky when kicking out from a drive. Driving to the bucket/at the rim.... sort of says the same thing from your previous statement.

Harden finishes at the rim & gets to the foul line about as good as anyone in the league. This can show that he's not just driving to the rim with the notion of passing. He is being more offensive minded around the rim which IMO he should be. When the offense goes stagnant, its nice to have a player who can get to the free throw line to keep the scoreboard moving.

 

Actually, the problem isn't that AST% is not a perfect stat (not stat is), the problem with AST% is that it's a fundamentally flawed and misleading statistic.

Notice that within the formula it is a derivative of total Team assisted goals, in other words percentage of total assisted team buckets throughout a game. The problem with this is it inherently misrepresents assist efficiency as it's a gross volume stat.

What I mean by gross volume stat is this. Let's assume a hypothetical.

If Harden is the primary ball handler and handles the PG duties 3x as much as Lin, even if Lin is 2x more efficient, Harden will still have a 50% higher AST% as Lin. In other words, like PPG, it does NOT take into account efficiency in terms of the performance of those duties.

Now, when I talk about Lin as a facilitator, I'm specifically seperating that from his overall efficiency as a "playmaker", which you defined as being able to generate a shot for oneself AND team mates.

Harden is one of the most efficient "playmakers" in the game. This is because his ability to translate a possession into either a Shot OR an Assist that results in points is very high.

However... that does not necessarily mean that Harden should be the primary ball handler. There are multiple reasons for this, one of which is that his efficiency drops off dramatically when he is forced to play the PG AND Shooting guard roles simultaneously. It's just WAY too easy for teams to key in, double team/shadow and pack the paint (ala OKC or Miami).

When I talk about Facilitation, I actually try to look at more granular statistics (ones that attempt to isolate passing efficiency).

Now, there is no single stat that can paint an accurate picture, but when you take a look at a broad range of statistics that look at aspects of passing and they point in the same direction, I don't think you can fully discount their accuracy.

So, let's look at some...

Lin vs Harden

AST/40 - 7.2/5.2
AST+/40 - 8.3/6.1

Assist Rate - 29.36%/16.15%
Assist/TO - 2.08/1.21
Assist/Bad Pass - 5.6/2.9

%age Dunk Assists - 22.78%/17.18%
%age Close Assists - 30.37%/20.31%
%age 3pt Assists - 29.11%/37.5%
%age Jumpshot Assists - 17.72%/25.0%

%age Jumpshot+3pt Assists - 46.83%/62.5%
%age Dunk + Close Assists - 53.15%/37.5%

Offensive Fouls - 3/7
Bad Passes - 14/22
Ball Handling Turnovers 21/24

%age of TO's from passes - 36.8%/41.5%

Notice that even after isolating Harden's playmaking (looking exclusively at passes attempted), every stat category favors Lin in terms of passing. Not just the number of successful passes leading to points scored, but the Quality of those passes, as well as the number of turnovers as a ratio compared to general assists.

Even if you completely exclude Harden's general ball handling TO's and adjust for passes attempted, the percentage of passes he attempts that result in TO's is higher than Lin's.

Now, whether that's due to Harden being double teamed more (as the primary offensive threat and PG simultaneously), or simply due to him being an inferior general passer (debatable), what is indisputable is the shots that result from his Facilitating is simply inferior.

Lin produces higher quality shots for his team mates, which statistically will always result in higher point production when viewed purely in terms of facilitation. In other words, Lin makes his team mates better MORE than Harden makes his team mates better.

That doesn't mean that Harden is NOT the less efficient playmaker. That actually can't be determined from passing stats exclusively. What it does mean is that Lin elevates those around him more, and that would include elevating Harden's shooting due to the quality of looks.

Does this mean Harden shouldn't be the primary "playmaker"? Not necessarily. However, I still maintain that it makes sense in terms of clock usage for Lin to *initially* generate shooting opportunities, but for those playmaking opportunities to work their way to Harden more often than to other players on the team in general.

In more broad strategic terms, it's also good strategy to start the ball AWAY from Harden more often. Not only does this give opposing defenses more different offensive looks to deal with, this gives Harden more room to operate off the ball, and more importantly to work with cutters and screens to give him open space opportunities to either isolate a defender, or to initiate a Pick and Roll without being under immediate double team pressure.

Anyway, just some more stuff to think about.

 

Star PGs dont win championships.....

we need star SG/SF/PFs..

we already got the faciliating PG and defensive anchor C...we're close

 

Where did I say that?

 

I tend to agree with you. But just to be difficult I'm going to say:

Isiah and Magic disagree with you.

 

It's safe to say that the whole world has realized Jeremy Lin is not being used properly. Obviously our coaching staff are working on it. Let's just wait and see what solution they'll come up with.

 

Harden is way better at running PnR's than Lin. That is a fact. He is one of the BEST in the league at it. The area he gets severely outclassed in as of right now (small sample size) compared to the Kobe's and Lebrons with the small sample size is isolation.

 

Does anyone have the PnR numbers for Lin/Harden?