It is not even about championship. It is about making Rockets interesting. Right now, Rockets have worst attendance, worst TV rating, least appearance in the media, no one wants to play for Houston, nobody wants to watch Rockets. Tanking can get you at least Yao Ming.
It's why teams value a "future first" that eventually becomes unprotected. Yes, it's another crap shoot, especially when it's from a large market team that is historically successful, yet even those teams can have a bad season or two from time to time. So you bet. Perhaps you get lucky. It's also that way with tanking. You can be terrible, get a top 5 pick, and select the one dude that checked off all the things you want in a player, yet turns out to be a bust. That's why good GM's are always working to have an edge in every conceivable possibility. Nothing may work out, but at least you're in the game.
True: The vast majority of teams that try to tank fail at it. True: The teams that win NBA championships count themselves among the few that succeeded at tanking. Conclusion: It's a real longshot to attempt tanking, but your ceiling will always be limited unless you try it out.
Nobody is happy about considering tanking. To consider tanking means that you either are a bad team but not bottom barrel or that you have been spinning wheels in mud for a long time trying to stay a good team. Tanking doesn't promise anything and will always be a huge gamble, but it is a lot better than any other option we currently have.
In those days the team with the worst record in each conference had a coin flip for the 1st & 2nd picks in the draft. That's a 50% chance at the #1 pick. We tanked 1 year, won the coin flip & picked Ralph. The next year, we played Ralph with our supporting cast from the year before & again had the worst record in our conference. Again we won the coin flip & picked Dream. The next year, the NBA changed to the lottery system to prevent tanking. The 1st year, Ralph Sampson was a college senior & the concensus #1 pick. The 2nd year we lucked out, because Dream entered the draft early & again was the concensus #1 pick. That should have paved our way to a dynasty, but Ralph's knee injuries prevented that. We did make 2 finals though. It took us 10 years before we won our B2B championships. Now when you tank, 25% is the best odds you can get for the #1 pick. It ain't worth it any more.
It's not about which team wins a title first. It's about only 1 playoff series win in 15 years. That's what's gotten old. Most of us on this board are true Rockets fans. We want to see our team win. But not win every other game and barely miss the playoffs year after year. The Rockets slogan went from "BELIEVE IT!". To "WE GOT ASSETS" to "SAME TIME NEXT YEAR"! No one wants to lose. We watch to see our team win the game. Most of us are patient enough if we see a future to believe in. But with our playoff prospects looking bleak and on another nothing season many said let's just trade some of these older players for a chance at something more this off-season. After all isn't that what Morey promised. He keep saying how our assets positioned us to make a deal. How we could turn our picks and young players into something more. How our trade exceptions were so valuable. Where's the results. Personally I do not care if we have the smartest GM in the league. I am a Rocket fan because I want to believe they (the players) have a chance to win it all now or at some time in the forseeable future. The franchised promised us that. That being said, I like how this team is playing. The emergence of Dragic and the great play of Camby have given me newfound hope of getting out of the first round. After that who knows what is possible.
It is not about tanking for the number one pick. There are too many variables for that. It is about tanking for a pick viable enough to pick up someone with the potential to become a superstar.
You hit the nail on the head "potential". Back when you weren't elligible for the draft until your college class had graduated, you pretty much knew who was good & who wasn't. The draft wasn't such a crap shoot. Now we have to draft on "potential" rather than "ability".
HTown, I actually agree with your general sentiment. I am not in the "let's tank" crowd. I just cannot stomach a bottom feeding season. I also agree that even if you "successfully" tank, you still need A LOT of luck to become a contender. We got lucky getting Yao and still came out empty. On the other hand, all arguments point to the fact it is a lot more likely to turn a bad team into a contender than to turn a good team into a contender because of the system. It's like raising the odds from 5% to 20%. (I just made it up. Don't really know the exact odds.) You still need a lot of luck to win with a 20% odd, but it's 4x better than 5%. That's why I believe that the media should harp on changing the system rather than use flawed logic to "prove" that tanking doesn't work.
Yeah, I was ecstatic when Morey could flip McGrady for NY's picks. It's top 5 protected but still a pretty good pick. Look the pathetic prospect of that pick now. I am actually hoping that Dallas would pick #20 every year until 2018.
Huh...so we aren't drafting a great player in the 15-20 range eh? 1989 Tim Hardaway #14 Sean Kemp #17 1990 Toni Kukoc #29 1991 Terrell Brandon #11 Dale Davis #13 1992 Robert Horry #11 Latrell Sprewell #24 1993 Sam Cassell #24 1994 Jalen Rose #13 1995 Michael Finley #21 1996 Kobe Bryant #13 Peja Stoyakovich #14 Steve Nash #15 Jermaine O'neal #17 Zydrunas Illgauskas #20 Derrick Fisher #24 1997 Tracy Mcgrady #9 1998 Dirk Nowitzki #9 Paul Pierce #10 Rashard Lewis #22 Cuttino Mobley #41 1999 Sean Marion #9 Jason Terry #10 Ron Artest #16, Andrei Kirelinko #24 Manu Ginobli #57 2000 Hedo Turkgolu #16, Michael Redd # 43 2001 Joe Johnson #10, Richard Jefferson #13, Zach Randolph #19 Tony Parker #28, Gilbert Arenas #30, 2002 A'mare Stoudemire #9, Caron Butler #10, Tayshaun Prince #23, Carlos Boozer #34, Luis Scola #55 2003 David West #18, Boris Diaw #21, Kendrick Perkins #27, Leandro Barbosa #28, Josh Howard #29, Kyle Korver #51 2004 Andre Iguodala #9, Al Jefferson #15, Josh Smith #17 Kevin Martin #26, 2005 #10 Andrew Bynum #17 Danny Granger #30 David Lee #40 Monta Ellis, #57 Marcin Gortat 2006 Rajon Rondo #21, Kyle Lowry #24, Paul Milsap #47 2007 Joakim Noah #9, Rodney Stuckey #15, Carl Landry #31 Marc Gasol #48 2008 Brook Lopez #10, Roy Hibbert #17, Courtney Lee #22, Serge Ibaka #24, Nicholas Batum #25, George Hill #26, Nikola Pekovic #31, DeAndre Jordan #35, Goran Dragic #45, 2009 Brandon Jennings #10, Jrue Holliday #17, DeJuan Blair #37 2010-2011.....Too early to really tell. I think you might be mistaken. NONE of the guys listed above were drafted in the top 8. Drafting in the top 5 helps....but great players can OBVIOUSLY be found throughout the draft....IF you have great talent evaluation. We should spend less time worrying about tanking and more time figuring out how the hell San Antonio does it year after year.....
I hear you, Old Man... I too have been just as frustrated as anyone the last couple of years - especially at the trade deadline, the draft and off season. But, I do believe it's certainly not from a lack of effort and trying on Morey's part. I do believe he burns up the phones. I do believe our guys get more interest from around the league than some feel (albeit, likely or obviously not enough to get a superstar - yet) Still, I try to understand that it's only been one or two seasons where Morey was truly trying, or had the full ability to go after that person. I don't think he "promised" us our assets would net us a superstar. He's always maintained "we like our roster, but will continue to try and upgrade whenever the opportunity presents itself" - which I think he's certainly tried to do year in and year out. We know he's went after Deron, Melo and Dwight, apparently being fairly close, depending on which reports you care to believe. I agree, it's hard to see this team winning a championship, obviously. But, then again, no one saw Dallas doing what they did - especially with an "all too soft supposed superstar who's always failed to deliver and came up small in the clutch". But, they did - and did it against a team with two of the five best players in the league and likely three of the best fifteen or twenty. So, yeah, you're right - anything is possible. But again, don't think I'm not in that "frustration boat" right along with you!
1999, 2003, 2005, 2007 - Spurs (Duncan) 2000-2002 - Lakers (Nope) 2004 - Pistons (Nope) 2006 - Heat (Wade) 2008 - Celtics (Traded tanked picks for Allen/Garnett) 2009-2010 - Lakers (Nope) 2011 - Mavs (..... No, but debatable since it was the 6th pick they dealt for Dirk). So, the Lakers don't need to tank. The Pistons were built similar to us (a collection of role players that became stars), but the pieces just never fit as perfectly.
I just don't know what else they can do, though. I mean for teams that are actually bad, WHILE TRYING, you certainly want to reward them with higher draft picks. And, I think the lottery system (odds) as constructed has deterred "tanking" in the way it used to be done. I don't believe Portland is "mailing it in". I'm just not sure I like any of the scenarios that have been thrown out there on espn.com (at least as far as it being "better" than the current system).
The only problem with this is that unless the Rockets are actually making noise IN THE PLAYOFFS, our fans mostly SUCK. I hate to say it, but Houston fans have always been some of the most bandwagaon jumping fans of all time. I'd LOVE to have fans like Portland, Golden St., Utah, Sacramento even... We have to be REALLY good to get decent support. It gets frustrating. (and yes, I understand it was BETTER when we had STAR players... but, it was STILL bad compared to what it SHOULD have been).
There are some good players in there, but the only ones who are anywhere close to superstar level are Nash and Stockton. Sure, Nash won his MVPs, but I don't think there is a GM on the planet that would take peak Nash over peak LeBron, Durant, Nowitzki, or even Wade. Same story with Stockton. I hate to be a downer, but only once in pretty much the entire history of the NBA has the championship been won by a team that didn't have one of the top 5 players in the league. The Gasol/Nene trade would not have been bad. Your team becomes more attractive to FAs if you are already a top 3-4 seed. So maybe Morey could have turned that into something unorthodox and exciting. Where we are now is ... marginally better than we were at the end of last year.