Anyone familiar with the semicon industry? Any views on ASML, KLAC, cadence and synopsys? ASML in particular has a 100% monopoly on the EUV process which will become more and more important as process nodes get smaller. Was thinking that instead of trying to pick between the fabless companies (qualcom, amd, broadcom, apple, Nvidia) or even the foundries (Samsung, tsmc, intel), just go with the foundry supplier that has a Monopoly on a critical technology. Any reasons y this may be a bad idea or is there a better way to invest in the sector? (Already long amd/tsm, and will continue to hold these 2)
I think it's still a great resource; just treat it like reddit or clutchfans, seems like anyone can post there so you gotta see who wrote the article and scrutinize and come to your own conclusions on each article. Articles by people who were from the industry they are covering (and not just a random cfa) can be particularly insightful.
I have KLAC, CCI, AMT, CIEN, SWKS, GLW, and TSM on my list to look at for 5G, but I do own MRVL and AAPL. I hadn't looked at ASML, but it's already doubled off the lows in March (like a lot of similar stocks, I guess). I'll have to look into it. Thanks.
I've been in Twitter for longer than I should have, probably. They've been in a $30-$40 trading range for years. I swear if it gets above $35, I'm going to sell it (I've been in it since around $23). I say this knowing I probably still won't sell it. lol. Their problem is that they really haven't been able to monetize it as well as a Facebook, for example, has done. Now with things like sports taking a beating with COVID, it's taken a bigger beating. I haven't heard of anything on the horizon that I recall could boost them other than possibly a COVID cure helping advertising dollars.
in a weird way not being able to monetize is a positive for longevity. i feel their daily user count would take a huge hit, once they start to try to monetize their users. until then it is fueled by specialization measured by their active user count.
This is my thinking too. In the short term it would be easier to take political ad money and stop annoying a sitting president. But in an age where valuation multiples are influenced at least partly by brand awareness and perception, as long as they are profitable, being relevant may be more important than trying to make a big profit. A lot of these tech shares don't pay a dividend anyway. Since March I've been selling OOTM puts on TWTR as it was at historic lows.
Have you been collecting some decent premiums? I think this is a pretty nice pick. I tried to go opposite with a small position in calls a while ago and was off by a week iirc, didn't lose crazy or something but was trying to get some easy profit (haha, easy - if only...) on contracts.
Ya a ton of places I frequent use SQ but I guess doing takeouts are helping businesses. Wayfair was another one my buddy sold after holding it for a while. He refuses to look at the stock price now. $27 to $214....
Man, that sucks, I know we've all done it and we'll do it again (at least I know I will, haha) - but it still sucks to experience/see - especially when something takes off
Having been through 99/00, it is really hard to look past some of the valuations today. Folks often conflate "business will do well" with an appropriate valuation. I mean for every Amazon/Ebay/etc, how many other companies are there that never lived up to the valuation (despite being everyday names or widely adopted technology). I think about dotcom valuations of companies like Cisco, Sun Microsystems, Akamai, Yahoo, etc and how they never recovered (even for someone like Cisco who is massive today) It was easy pickings back then shorting the likes of drugstore.com, dr.koop, etc. I know so little about these companies since they are more behind the scenes vs consumer, so I haven't pursued a short/put position - I just wonder if Shopify really is a $100B+ company or Wayfair is worth $20B+ - again these businesses will probably be around in 10 years - just can they really live up to being worth that much...
This is almost a 20 year old company that doesn't generate cash, but is valued at 20 billion dollars. I don't get its valuation.
I think as others have mentioned, people dont seem to care for valuation much anymore...stonks only go up! You don't even have to sell a single product (see NKLA)..
Premiums were really great in March but has decreased as volatility has gone down. In hindsight should have sold ITM puts but wasn't expecting market to recover so quickly.
Right, I wasn't expecting this either, it's been pretty wild. Regardless really great move on this. Profit is always good
GNUS I got out of all between 3.50 - 3.60. That was looking like a train wreck, like I was thinking news would be nice then I saw some better info about the "news", haha, I might be wrong but... Yeah...
I have been playing X on/off, I think it's going to rise - especially on possible fed move/infrastructure. It should go up regardless but I don't know on time frame, I basically have been just going calls and then puts very small moves but seem to work for small profits. I haven't done it in about a month though. Like basically jsut falling chart/news - so 1-2 weeks was calls, then puts repeated.
WOW. I hadn't realized Wayfair jumped that much. Ouch to those that sold. I ended up snagging some CRWD (CrowdStrike Holdings) last week. So far so good. I'm also happy Microsoft has finally started to move some.
