Surgical mask (basic mask) --> https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/pdfs/UnderstandDifferenceInfographic-508.pdf Isn't that as or even more effective than the FLU vaccine? Just mask up people. https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...onavirus-hamster-research-proof-effectiveness Hamsters placed in adjoining cages with infected subjects were infected at a 66.7 per cent rate; the introduction of a barrier saw the percentage drop to 16.7 ‘It shows very clearly that if infected hamsters or humans … put on masks, they actually protect other people,’ HKU’s Dr Yuen Kwok-yung says The study, which the team called the first of its kind, found the rate of non-contact transmission – in which the virus was transmitted via respiratory droplets or airborne particles – dropped by as much as 75 per cent when masks were present. “The findings implied to the world and the public is that the effectiveness of mask-wearing against the coronavirus pandemic is huge,” Dr Yuen Kwok-yung of Hong Kong University said on Sunday, while cautioning a risk of infection remains even with masks. “In our hamster experiment, it shows very clearly that if infected hamsters or humans – especially asymptomatic or symptomatic ones – put on masks, they actually protect other people. That’s the strongest result we showed here,” Yuen said. “Transmission [of the virus] can be reduced by 50 [percentage points] when surgical masks are used, especially when masks are worn by infected individuals,” he said. “I know wearing masks will be difficult during the summer time. My advice is especially when you are in an indoor or closed environment where there’s no free air exchange, in crowded places or on public transport, you must wear a mask.” The study also found that hamsters infected with Covid-19 via direct injection had more severe symptoms than those that contracted it through the mask partitions. The latter group experienced lower clinical scores, milder histopathological changes, and lower viral loads in respiratory tract tissues.
Hey @Major, replying to earlier posts, and I don't want to mis-represent what you're saying, but in case you're saying Ro doesn't matter than much in the end or you can't measure it well anyway... I'd just say most of us on here aren't epidemiologists, and I want to give their field a little respect. My two cents is, at the very least, Ro is somewhat measurable (as you say, more in hindsight) and it is important specifically for understanding what herd immunity requires. If Ro is 2-3, we need fewer than 3 in 5 people as immune or vaccinated. If Ro is 5-6, we need more than 4 in 5 people as immune or vaccinated. That's a big important difference even in terms of how many vaccines a country will manufacture or purchase some day. Maybe you were just saying getting robust regional Ro data is hopeless, and I can kind of agree with that unless (and let's hope not) we get a ton more cases everywhere.
I'm just going to assume China is still dealing with a much greater number of infections than they are admitting. The only thing consistent with them is their lying. That leaked database indicated 640k infections which is MANY more infections than they admitted. If they still had that many from Feb to April and then they tried to "reopen" in late April/early May then I will just guess that the true number is multiples greater than that as well. I believe the Chinese family structure is similar to that of Italy where you have multi-generational households and I think their reopening of schools might have triggered an outbreak. Total speculation but speculation is fun.
By the way, @robbie380, I owe you an update if not quite an apology. I kind of tried to shut down "escaped from a lab!" origin stories in this thread based on everything I was reading (and literally hearing) from scientists. But this is evolving a little bit, even though I still think that's best left to the D&D forum. It seems there is a small part of the viral genome that scientists cannot yet fully account for. Also, the role of the pangolin is more in question now. The virus is still, to the best of my understanding: (1) completely consistent with purely natural origin, and (2) highly unlikely to have been manipulated in a human laboratory. It's just that they haven't fully mapped how it evolved yet. For conspiracy theorists (and maybe just maybe in the eventual scientific history), it seems like the tiny window through which this "lab accident" could have happened is slightly wider now than it seemed (to me at least) a month or so ago. Again, until we know more, i still really believe the related discussion of that low-prob theory is best left to D&D, with the bashing of various political actors who "created the virus." But... {cue X-Files theme}
I thought this was an interesting study done by a data scientist in Denmark. Basically, he ran different modelling and tried to follow how the virus spreads. It doesn't spread in a straightforward 1 person then to 3 people consistently. It spreads in super spreading events or from super spreaders. Due to this it could potentially lower the herd immunity threshold significantly to around 40%. He also goes on to try to put forth a strategy to have timed lockdowns in order to reach herd immunity. It's all speculative and theoretical and he doesn't it claim it to be 100% accurate, but it's an interesting perspective. https://jsmp.dk/posts/2020-05-07-herdimmunity/ Herd immunity Simulations investigating herd immunity with heterogeneous infectiousness Also I just saw he tweeted out an update to this today which I thought was interesting.
Curious where it all goes. I haven't kept up with a ton lately. I clearly don't believe anything China says or does. I also don't really trust our govt to give us the full truth either considering the fact that we were funding that lab and our supposed proof that it came from the lab hasn't been shown yet. There are a lot of conflicts and conflicting stories to say the least. Hopefully, we will find a logical answer to the origin from virologists. I had seen an article awhile back that discussed that it is likely this virus was simmering for months prior to the explosion. I wish I could find it and it was a bit more technical of an article.
Wow, thanks. I'd heard the "super-spreader" idea early in the outbreak but hadn't heard as much recently. This could really help explain why some cities (and even some towns or counties or conferences) get severe outbreaks while others are mild. It's just if your high-shedding individuals are the ones who get on subway cars or mingle at parties, or whatever. But yeah, that (x-1)/x idea for heard immunity assumes everyone in a population is equally likely to contract or transmit as anyone else.
A 2nd wave is a matter of when, not if. It's probably a good idea to stock up on TP, paper towels, Clorox wipes, etc. during the next 1-2 months while you can before the 2nd wave becomes too big for the govt to fudge the data and hide, and the panic buying starts all over again. States accused of fudging or bungling COVID-19 testing data Public health officials in some states are accused of bungling coronavirus infection statistics or even using a little sleight of hand to deliberately make things look better than they are. In Virginia, Texas and Vermont, for example, officials said they have been combining the results of viral tests, which show an active infection, with antibody tests, which show a past infection. Public health experts say that can make for impressive-looking testing totals but does not give a true picture of how the virus is spreading. In Florida, the data scientist who developed the state’s coronavirus dashboard, Rebekah Jones, said this week that she was fired for refusing to manipulate data “to drum up support for the plan to reopen.” Calls to health officials for comment were not immediately returned Tuesday. In Georgia, one of the earliest states to ease up on lockdowns and assure the public it was safe to go out again, the Department of Public Health published a graph around May 11 that showed new COVID-19 cases declining over time in the most severely affected counties. The daily entries, however, were not arranged in chronological order but in descending order. https://apnews.com/6dbd9ad370add2ba299c7da46c25004f?
I was reading on reddit last night about that Florida woman who was fired for supposedly not fudging data. Crazy, if true : Woman who designed Florida's COVID-19 dashboard has been removed from her position https://cbs12.com/news/local/woman-...-dashboard-has-been-removed-from-her-position
Sorry - to clarify, what I meant to say is that Ro is not just about the virus, but about the environment. In a society where lots of people are in lockdown, the Ro will be different than when society is "normal". So trying to measure Ro in real-time just seems silly when policies and the environment is constantly changing. For herd immunity information, we really need the "normal society Ro", but we don't have a normal society right now, so current data isn't great for that. And trying to connect it to political policy decisions (ie, we did X and it caused the Ro to drop or rise by Y) seems a totally futile idea since too many variable are changing to connect it to one policy idea. You'd need a massive data set to control for all the other variables, and that's not really something we have in real-time. I suspect once the immediate crisis is solved, people can devote a lot more time and resources to getting a true Ro in case this hits us again - but I don't think we'll have those kinds of answers for months, if not years.
It is like the PRC put the decimal point in the wrong place. It appears that the Chinese are careless mathematicians.
I would say more unfortunate than crazy. The US govt can be just as dirty and corrupt as anyone else and there's lots of key things in play: 1.) There is a strong motivation to downplay numbers to get the economy going again and 2.) Many people are reaching their limits of lock down and it's hard to keep enforcing strict protective measures. 3.) It's an election year and all incumbents needs to do is keep their respective dumpster fires afloat until Nov 3rd, even if that means picking short-term gains over better longer-term solutions.
From Russia https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ew-cluster-carries-virus-longer-than-in-wuhan China’s New Outbreak Shows Signs the Virus Could Be Changing Bloomberg News May 20, 2020, 2:02 AM EDTUpdated on May 20, 2020, 5:00 AM EDT Patients in new cluster take longer to show symptoms, recover Uncertainty over virus mutation is hindering control efforts It’s likely that the observations in China don’t have a simple correlation with a mutation and “very clear evidence” is needed before concluding that the virus is mutating, he said.
they didn’t do this hard lockdown outside off Wuhan province when there were many more declared cases in other regions maybe this is a new strategy - fast and hard hammer for 2 weeks should kill any spread maybe the chinese dr saw something new (sign of mitigation) that’s concerning whatever it is.... can someone just ask Xi? Pick up the phone and find out what’s going on.
In rural areas the Chinese family structure is multi-generational but not in cities. Because of apartment living and the one child policy most people in the PRC live in in nuclear families. The breakdown of large families is one of the issues that is cited for societal ills in the PRC. I will agree that numbers out of the PRC should be taken with a healthy dose of skepticism but it would be hard for them to hide that the numbers are multiple times greater. The control that the government has on people and information is often exaggerated both by critics and the government. Information of this magnitude would be hard for them to hide and we've already seen they weren't able to fully hide what happened in Wuhan in the early days and was even forced to make a formal apology to the family of Dr. Li Wenliang for silencing him. For the CCP to make an apology to anyone is rare and shows how much difficulty they are having trying to control both the outbreak and information about it.
I'm certainly not an expert in these things, but it sure appears that these church cases...where people chose to congregate despite warnings and stay at home orders...are a collective "canary in a coal mine" experiment for what's going to happen as we open up more. I hope I'm wrong about that.
EDIT: nm, political post not for Hangout. But yes, obfuscating data for the public is disturbing and not helpful.
