This is one thing to consider. I think too many people are taking in an apocalyptic view of this thing, it isn't smallpox (Although if it were, we'd be truly F'd) and places that have dealt with it earlier are rebounding. That's a good sign. We can't shut down the government until next year, we just simply can't do it, that might kill more people than the actual virus does. At some point this year (my guess, 3-4 months), things will try to go back to normal whether we are ready for it or not.
I think if we allow the virus to spread rapidly, the fatality rate could potentially be higher than 3%. We don't really know the fatality rate right now (there's a possibility it's even less than the flu, from what I've heard, or maybe it's at 3% in line with some estimates). But you're dealing not just with deaths due to COVID-19, but also other deaths resulting from this breaking our health-care system. By slowing down the rate at which it spreads, we may actually have more people dying directly due to the virus, but the overall death count for people needing hospitalization or medical treatment for whatever reason may be lessened. This isn't an original take, but I feel like to make a decision one way or the other, we need better data -- which means we need to scale up testing massively.
Wonder if this will become like the chicken pox, where you try to get infected at an early age so you don't catch it later as an adult. To address the OP, I think delaying the spread to help medical services handle case loads would be best. Unless we want to also purposely let Covid patients suffer to make sure other people can be treated as well.
then you need to take a look at Italy. 2978 death (out of 35713) already and it is pilling up each day. Are there non-apocalyptic view for this ****? Italy had their "we just simply can't do it" moment.........now do they even care they have a government or not?
I don't see this as being such a prolonged fight against the virus as others and isolation appears to be the logical path. If a person catches it , and doesn't pass it to another host , the virus is essentially terminated , much like SARS which we haven't seen a case of since 2004. There's a lot of factors in play right now - lack of a vaccine , the weather .... We're looking at a month , maybe 6 weeks of this , assuming people follow the guidelines and this will pass as the medical community catches up to this thing and the weather turns. In the mean time , don't be a stupid person ....
Yes, apocalypse means end of the world, do you think this is the end? I don't mean to sound snarky, it's just I read so much doom and gloom about how this is the end and it's like...people are sitting at home playing videogames and watching netflix...let's chill for a moment with the apocalyptic talk. Italy's issues are that the number of cases have overloaded hospitals, less people get care means more people die. If you can flatten the curve and make it so hospitals can care for each patient then it can be handled. It's not, as I said, something like Smallpox which is going to kill people at a 30% rate...imagine that in today's world with this amount of travel? Now that is a true apocalypse by virus, you'd see world leaders die, scientists, whoever gets it has a good shot at dying... We also have no idea if there will be another round or how strong it will be, but a vaccine hopefully is prepared for it. For me, I don't feel this is the superbug that we've been warned about, but its close enough to it to make sure we get our **** together, not just as a country, as a planet, so that when (and it'll happen) that superbug is out there we'll be better prepared to deal with it. Too many people took it lightly or that it was just some isolated china thing and it wasn't. Bill Gates has been right on this whole thing for years now and he's right to tell people to not panic and remain calm and that we'll get past it. It is bad, but it isn't the end of the world. You'll know the superbug when it hits, it'll have a much higher fatality rate. I'm not saying to take this lightly, I'm just trying to put it in perspective.
This post sums it up for me. I expect the new norm will be an outbreak every 2 to 4 years and our processes will get better. But the BIG BUG hasn't hit yet. I also expect a new 'industry' to emerge. Greed knows no bounds and there is money to be made. Who doesn't wish they had stock in Quest or Labcorp about right now?
This is a great chance for the world to get its **** together. We can't say we weren't warned after this, hopefully, more investment is put into it by those greedy people once they realize that they need actual people to buy their products and feed their greed. Because while Covid-19 is bad, it could have been something a lot worse, and we need to be prepared for that.
Two points: If your economy crashes because your service sector implodes, its time to rethink the whole thing. Shutting down events that includes hundreds of people on top of each other should not hurt the overall economy too seriously. Additionally, practicing basic hygiene and social distancing should not burn the economy either. We are not in pandemic mode. we are in apocalyptic mode. Largely thanks to the media. Many hospitals have dealt with much much worse. Most of these countries in crisis mode have not had to deal with a devastating natural disasters on a large scale.
I'm not a virologist but COVID19 is the perfect foil for us, the long incubation, the apparently high degree of asymptomatic spreaders, the weirdness with how some people recover and some spiral downward...it's a stealth exterminator. Plus if course you have the "meh just the flu" crew who.... tragically, are in charge of our collective response to this. Whoops. If it were more deadly it might have been caught & contained earlier, though it would be more deadly where it's localized.
But his point is that it could be worse and there likely will be worse pandemics in the future. I took from it a glimmer of hope that in the future we've learned from this and will come out stronger and more prepared. Of course, I'm in Houston and I believe you're in New York. The levels of anxiety are much different and I do expect to see what's happening in NY happen here, probably on a smaller scale because Harris County is NOT as dense as NYC.
Oh definitely, this one is an issue for those reasons exactly. People silently carry it and silently spread it...and its scary since we see even young people getting hit hard by it. I 100% agree that too many people took this lightly and that's why we are where we are right now. Right, I'm just saying that Covid-19 isn't the apocalyptic bug of promise...at least from what we know now. It's going to ruin a lot of lives though and I don't mean to say that to downplay it at all or those loss of lives. I just wanted to put it in perspective because we really need to be prepared for something even worse (as hard as that is to imagine) because viruses have fun and neat ways to kill us. I brought up smallpox because I was thinking about it the other day, if that had been this (with no vaccine ready for it...). It was a terrible illness that ripped through humanity every time it popped up, taking with it kings, queens, whoever...and now imagine that with how often people travel nowadays? Imagine the news that all those NBA players infected, 3/10 of those guys would be dead. That's what we need to be prepared for and while this is terrible I do hope we have learned something from it. With that said we still don't know how this will play out. China (claims) to have it under control, if true, it means there is an end in sight this year...although one could argue that China took it far more seriously than people are here in USA...think there were still people visiting beaches earlier Wednesday right? So...yeah...that's not good.
These are greater casualties than wars..... we must be vigilent. This philosophical question can take a hike. Is it ok to let a million people die? That is a light number....just to preserve your comfort? There is a sane answer and then the coward's answer.
Can We Put a Price Tag on a Life? The Shutdown Forces a New Look https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/business/economy/coronavirus-economy.html
The issue is if you do not flatten the curve, the 1-3% mortality rate might jump to 10-20% once the health care system collapses after being over whelmed. Many people will die needlessly.
We can't sit around hoping for a vaccine that may never come. As we get better at distancing/hygiene and businesses adapt, maybe 80% of the economy can get back to work when risk of spread is reduced. As mentioned by others, countries that have managed to control the spread (not eliminate, but slow it down enough) are going about work at close to full capacity with added precautionary measures. USA has more than enough resources to reach the same outcome, or even surpass the rest of the world at this. You are the home of Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Netflix, big pharma, Tesla, s&p 500 the most innovative businesses in the world. The remaining 20% may require even more radical change or get replaced (streaming, gaming, delivery etc) ; it'll be very painful but the economy will adapt eventually.