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COVID-19

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by Spacemoth, Mar 12, 2020.

  1. Roscoe Arbuckle

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    From an MD immunologist:

    I don't post a lot on facebook but I would like to give my perspective and context on the coronavirus outbreak. I hope I can be a more reputable source of perspective as a physician who specializes and is board certified in immunology (as well as pediatrics, allergy and dermatology).

    1. Coronaviruses are a family of viruses. "coronavirus" is not unique to this particular strain. Everyone reading this has likely had another different coronavirus infection. This particular strain has been named COVID-19.

    2. Every upper respiratory virus has the potential to be lethal. Patients unfortunately die from many upper respiratory viral infections every year - most prominently the influenza virus. 30,000 people died from the influenza virus in 2019. The media didn't report each one. They have reported all 11 coronavirus deaths. Not telling us about the people lost but rather keeping a death "toll".

    Let me repeat that:
    -Coronavirus: 11 deaths (US in 2020), 3300 deaths (China in 2020).
    -Influenza: 30,000 deaths (US in 2019).

    *Influenza pandemic of 1918: 675,000! (US), 20-50 MILLION!! (worldwide) <---These people I think would have been in favor of receiving their annual flu vaccine.

    This is not meant to minimize any of these deaths but rather to give context and put some facts to the hysteria.

    3. If you're healthy, there is no need to walk around wearing a mask. In addition to looking silly and most of the time wearing/taking them off wrong - which would actually make you more prone to acquiring an infection, they don't prevent you from getting sick. If you're actually sick stay away from people and then, sure, wear a mask so you aren't spreading respiratory droplets every time you cough/sneeze. In medicine we don't wear the masks you're buying and we wear other protective equipment - not just a silly looking mask you found on Amazon. When you see doctor's walking around the world wearing a mask then you should too. Until then, stop.

    4. The symptoms are that of the flu. As doctors we don't test or know about most people with mild or moderate flu symptoms. That means most people will probably get it and just think they had the flu. That means you're only going to hear about the cases that get serious - not all the minor ones which will be the vast majority of cases.

    5. When it is said that people who are older or have other medical conditions are most likely to die - that is equally true for EVERY upper respiratory virus. There is nothing unique about that to this particular virus. It does mean that the only cases we tend to know about are the severe ones. Once a case is severe it then makes sense to test the patient to find out what virus in particular they have. That means you can easily overestimate how severe or lethal the virus is because the only cases you end up knowing about are the serious ones.

    In summary 30,000 people died from the flu last year. Another 30,000 died in car accidents.

    I remember: H1N1 (2009), MERS (2012), Ebola (2014), Coronavirus (2020).

    Take it from me: The poor resident who stood at the door of the ER to triage people in 2009's swine flu (H1N1) hysteria. The over reaction is exponentially worse than the actual problem and in 2020 the over reactions I'm seeing are remarkable. In cold and flu season you'll probably get sick once or twice for about a week each. You might even get this particular coronavirus and most of you won't even know it. I've seen people raiding supermarkets, major meetings and sporting events getting cancelled and fear/racism towards Asian people. These reactions are totally unnecessary and panic based. Just do what you've always done during cold/flu season. Stay away from other people when you're sick, wash your hands and keep them away from your face, and only go to the ER if you feel your symptoms are more severe than a bad cold/flu (shortness of breath, high fever, etc.). And also realize you can't live on earth and not get viral illnesses from time to time. It's a part of nature.

    Please don't ask for antibiotics (those treat bacteria - not viruses). Thats like asking for a fire extinguisher when you're drowning. It can be a life saving device - but the wrong one for the problem at hand. Some doctor's don't want to fight about it when patients insist on antibiotics so they just prescribe them - but it doesn't mean its actually helping you and in some cases they can be harmful (resistance, infections, allergic reactions just to name a few). If you're one who asks for antibiotics every time you're sick, again, take it from me: ask for a flu shot each year and a doctor's note to stay home from work when you're sick instead. You will be much better off.

    The government is very proud that testing will be available to every American. Remember, we don't test for any respiratory virus other than the influenza virus routinely. The reason is thats the only virus that has a treatment (pill) you can take to shorten the duration of severity of the illness. I suspect if we start testing everyone with cold symptoms for coronavirus we're going to find lots of it. It's not going to change the recommendations to stay home and rest. And its not going to predict the small percentage of people who may develop more severe symptoms. Essentially whether someone has coronavirus 19 or some other cold/flu virus isn't going to matter to your doctor. What it will do is slam urgent cares, ER's and hospitals with every patient who has a cold so they can be tested. It is much more sensible to reserve testing for patients requiring hospitalization or more advanced treatments. Even that wouldn't change their management but would be more to confirm the diagnosis and to not waste time looking for other causes of the patients symptoms.

    In conclusion, yes there is a novel virus that our immune systems haven't seen yet so to get immune to it you will have to get infected - at least until a vaccine is developed to bypass the getting sick part and just jumping straight to immune. Most people's immune systems will do that effectively and be fine. A small percentage of unfortunate patients (primarily elderly, immune compromised etc.) will not be able to do that effectively and will need more advanced care. This is true of the cold/flu viruses we deal with every year. Follow normal cold/flu precautions and seek medical care if you feel your symptoms are severe. No need to get hysterical.

    These outbreaks can be instructive for overall knowledge of public health. In particular showing your immune system the uniform of a potential invader (virus) so that if it ever sees a soldier wearing that uniform it will immediately attack and neutralize it without you ever getting sick. That is a wonderful thing and probably the single biggest achievement in medicine throughout human history. That is what vaccines are. The benefit to risk ratio of them are off the charts in favor of vaccines. If viruses like coronavirus scare you, then stay up to date on your vaccines and your immune system will be running the latest software.

    If you still think you should be scared consider this: Doctors, nurses and other healthcare staff are going to hospitals every day. Crowded buildings with tons of sick people. They aren't walking around the halls of the hospitals wearing masks and they haven't stopped going to work. And they are all rolling their eyes at everyone else right now.

    Marc Serota, MD
     
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  2. IBTL

    IBTL Member
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    this is a fun thread but im still not shaking your hand and no its not that either ( you know why)
     
  3. Blake

    Blake Contributing Member

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    politics? Is the cdc a political organization? Can you actually say the current admin (or Congress for that matter) is doing a good job with this crisis?

    I don’t talk politics. I don’t post in the d and d forum. I didn’t vote for Hillary or for Trump. I’m not a republican or a democrat. You are a fool if you think I’m being political. I’m being realistic. We have hardly any tests. We aren’t using our federal resources and are relying on local leaders to respond. Blame Trump blame Congress I don’t give two ***** if it is a donkey or an elephant at fault. I’m stating this is a serious about to spread and it isn’t the media hyping this. You are the one making this political. Perhaps you have a beef with the OP. I don’t know. I don’t venture into the d and d cesspool.

    I’m simply stating that your post stating doctors saying this is no big deal isn’t even close to the ones who I know. Most of whom are Republican btw.
     
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  4. Roscoe Arbuckle

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    Read your initial post, kid. You're fooling yourself if you believe what you just posted.
     
  5. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    PHD to be an optician. oh boy
     
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  6. Buck Turgidson

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    As best I can tell, this guy is a dermatologist in a suburb of Denver...

    No offense or anything, but why should I give a **** what he says?
     
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  7. Roscoe Arbuckle

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    Because you want to believe this is a big deal...

    Dr. Serota, MD is a practicing Allergist & Immunologist in Greenwood Village, CO. Dr. Serota graduated from University of Missouri Kansas City School of Medicine in 2019 and has been in practice for 10 years. Dr. Serota also specializes in Dermatology. Dr. Serota accepts multiple insurance plans including Aetna, Humana, and Medicare. Dr. Serota also practices at Sorkin Dermatology Associates Professional LLC in Denver, CO.
     
  8. Blake

    Blake Contributing Member

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    I did. I said one thing at the end. Read the rest of it, kid. That’s what matters. I’m 42 by the way jackass

    and you’ve changed my opinion completely by finding an allergy doctor who agrees with you.
     
  9. Roscoe Arbuckle

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    Sorry, I misspoke. Optometrist at Texas State Optical.
     
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  10. Roscoe Arbuckle

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    You're a child, or at least you're acting like one. And I'm older than you.

    As to allergy doctor? Your sentence isn't even comprehensible.
     
  11. ThatBoyNick

    ThatBoyNick Member

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    Are you taller tho? Who's got a bigger wiener? I bet my wiener is bigger than yours.
     
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  12. RKREBORN

    RKREBORN Member

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    Jesus man, you are sure on a mission to show how big your internet dick is in every thread
     
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  13. RKREBORN

    RKREBORN Member

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    Hairier ass fo sure
     
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  14. Blake

    Blake Contributing Member

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    Lol. I am acting like a child. When you crawl out of bed around noon tomorrow, red-eyed and grabbing for that Advil, read the thread again if your head is clear.

    and by the way, an immunologist is a doctor who specializes in treating allergies and asthma. Good night
     
  15. Roscoe Arbuckle

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    On Tuesday, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus acknowledged that fear was a "natural human response" to any threat and that the mortality rate for the new coronavirus was higher than that for the flu. This was not a reason to hoard supplies, though, and Ghebreyesus said people misusing protective equipment, such as healthy people wearing face masks, compromises countries' abilities to respond to the outbreak.

    https://www.newsweek.com/coronaviru...f2juPaJbo4F65CBtUFc14ii1Vc4_hkRdmqV6Jr3rmcixE
     
  16. Roscoe Arbuckle

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    Sorry, I'm just a dullard with a Finance degree and my own business. You?
     
  17. Buck Turgidson

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    Why are you the way you are? Keep calling other people "kid" or "child". It works for you.
     
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  18. ThatBoyNick

    ThatBoyNick Member

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    Either you've ****ed up a lot of people's finances over the years....or you have an alcohol problem and are furious about your small ween.
     
  19. Roscoe Arbuckle

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    Wise words from Infectious Disease MD, Dr. Abdu Sharkawy, Toronto on COVID-19:

    “I'm a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I've been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis. I have worked in inner city hospitals and in the poorest slums of Africa. HIV-AIDS, Hepatitis,TB, SARS, Measles, Shingles, Whooping cough, Diphtheria...there is little I haven't been exposed to in my profession. And with notable exception of SARS, very little has left me feeling vulnerable, overwhelmed or downright scared.

    I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil. I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.

    What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they " probably don't have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know..." and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess.

    I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games...that could be kyboshed too. Can you even
    imagine?

    I'm scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession.

    But mostly, I'm scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.
    Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it. Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and "fight for yourself above all else" attitude could prove disastrous.

    I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let's meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.
    Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts.
    Our children will thank us for it.”
     
  20. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    He actually posted a dermatologist ranting about coronavirus to impress us -- honestly I'd rather hear from the optician with a PhD.
     

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