Deal done: Rockets trade Capela for Covington in 4-team deal

Cuz you don't face Gobert every match in the playoffs? Gobert is the least of the Rox's problems they even dumped on him without Capela.

 

This is literally how frustrated Gobert is when playing the Rockets every year. I'm not even sure why some people are still so worried about him alone. the rockets take him out of the game year after year and dude is still charmin. They force him to guard in space away from the basket, he has trouble. He's too soft and offensively limited to consistently be a factor on the other end.

he's a good player, dont get me wrong. but against the wrong matchups he can definitely be a huge weakness. the rockets just happen to be one of his worse matchups. that's how you take out guys like him. exposing their weakness over and over

 

Not really. I'm just saying you are so certain when you have no proof.

Like your statement "If they traded him at the eight timing, they would have gotten 1st 100%". Where is your proof that is true? Of course anybody can have an opinion, I have one too. But your entire argument that the Rox got ripped off hinges all on your insistence Capela alone is worth Roco+Jordan Bell. Where's your proof of that?

If you are gonna argue X is worth Y+Z then there has to be some basis for that lol like I said the basis we have here is Favors cuz he is close to Capela and what he went for is 2 2nd round picks. Now you tack on yet another speculation he got sold at half price. Again where is the proof or any basis other than your opinion?

The GM being right or wrong has nothing to do with the market value of Capela. You cant convince people Rox could have gotten more for him when it's all just your opinion.

Like what if I say Rox got away with murder cuz Capela is just worth a conditonal 2nd round pick? My statement would be just as valid as yours cuz it has no basis as well. It's hard to analyze without any sort of benchmark since none of us are insiders thats why I'm saying the only basis we have is Favors and what he got traded for. Dennis Lindsey has been GM/Executive VP of the Jazz since 2012 I'd assume he knows how to trade a player before he loses 50% of the value due to "timing".

P.S. why is 2024 GSW 2nd pick not valuable? Lol it's still a 2nd round pick it's not like the 2020 FRP is extremely valuable its gonna be in the high 20s. The only time it isnt valuable is if the Rox are gonna close down by 2024 which is unlikely.

If you ask me between low FRP or Jordan Bell+2nd round then the latter has more inherent value as you get 2 shots at getting a rotational player instead of just 1.

 

My proof is that any player after playing out of position for years, and suffering disastrous injuries that sidelined him for long periods and affected him physically has diminished trade value.
And yet that trade value still was 2 2nds.

There is no reason for sophistries or for me to prove that I am not an elephant.

I am sorry that you fail to understand that the trade market for Capela was NOT Covington and a 1rst but we had to add value so we could dump contracts.

 

@pippendagimp Hawks fans on their forum:

"What are the Rocket's doing? Seems they may have financial concerns...."

"The owner is broke... relatively speaking "

Lol

 

Fair point... But how does trading a first to get rid of two small expiring contracts help Wb/harden?

Imo the pick would've been much more useful to the rockets in terms of acquiring help for Wb/harden/Covington than luxury tax savings would.

Note: my complaint is based on clutch's tweet that the pick was included to get under the tax and not necessarily required in acquiring Covington. If it was, I'd think the rockets overpaid but it was still understandable.

 

i was considering starting a thread detailing the dozen plus trade transactions done under ferntits watch, every single one of which involved us taking back less annual salary than we sent out. but now i'm think maybe the whole world already knows anyways

 

If was used to get Covington. That’s how it helps. Clutch’s tweet doesn’t say anything more than it wasn’t expected. It doesn’t mean he completely disproves the move . At the end of the day, he is on board with the acquisition cause they’re getting an elite defensive wing that fits this team. His latest podcast with bima went into detail about this before the trade was even made last night. Listening to it put me over the top in believing it would happen

 

Not sure if posted...


The deal

Rockets get: Robert Covington, Jordan Bell, 2024 second-rounder (via Golden State Warriors)

Hawks get: Clint Capela, Nene Hilario

Timberwolves get: Malik Beasley, Juan Hernangomez, Evan Turner, Jarred Vanderbilt, 2020 first-rounder (via Brooklyn Nets, lottery-protected)

Nuggets get: Gerald Green, Keita Bates-Diop, Shabazz Napier, Noah Vonleh, 2020 first-round pick (via Houston Rockets)


Get more trade grades for every deal here

Houston Rockets: B

Though it took four teams to accomplish it, this trade was clearly built around the Rockets' desire to turn Capela into Covington, a move that seems to confirm their commitment to the small-ball lineups that have led Houston to a 4-0 record in games Capela has missed in the past week and a half.

There are larger issues at play here, including whether it makes sense to pay a starting center mid-market money given the ability to replace a large percentage of his production for a fraction of the price and the way incentives in Capela's contract (most notably a $1 million bonus for reaching the conference finals) made it difficult for the Rockets to avoid the luxury tax with any certainty. But all of those things were true before this week, when Houston's urgency to deal Capela seemed to accelerate based on published reports.

Playing small with P.J. Tucker at center was the Rockets' answer to the Golden State Warriors' "Hamptons 5" back in 2018, but there always has been a reluctance to play the 6-foot-5 Tucker too many minutes there lest he break down. That has gone away in the past two weeks, when Tucker has started and played exclusively at the 5 -- with 6-6 combo forward Thabo Sefolosha as his backup. When second-year center Isaiah Hartenstein played three minutes in the first quarter of Tuesday's win over the Charlotte Hornets, it was the first time since Capela was sidelined by plantar fasciitis in his right foot that Houston had played anyone listed taller than 6-6.

Over the course of the season, lineups with Tucker at center haven't necessarily been dominant. They've outscored opponents by 3.8 points per 100 possessions, as compared to a plus-2.5 net rating with Tucker at power forward, according to Cleaning the Glass. But logically, the trade-off makes sense given the Rockets' move to an isolation-heavy offense.

As recently as a couple of years ago, the danger Capela posed as a lob threat in the pick-and-roll game was crucial to Mike D'Antoni's offense. During the four seasons since Capela became Houston's starter, only Russell Westbrook and Steven Adams have run more pick-and-rolls than Capela and James Harden, according to Second Spectrum tracking. That has been a successful pairing, surpassed in points per chance (1.04) by only Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic (1.05) among duos who have run at least 1,500 pick-and-rolls.

Yet, as Dan Devine noted for The Ringer, Capela's role as a roll man has been minimized as the Rockets' offense has tilted more toward Harden isolations. Per Second Spectrum, the number of Harden-Capela pick-and-rolls Houston has run has decreased from 41.2 per 100 possessions in 2016-17 to just 18.1 so far this season. And Capela hadn't found the same kind of pick-and-roll chemistry with Westbrook. Those plays have yielded just 0.83 points per chance this season, which ranks 100th out of the 107 duos with at least 200 pick-and-rolls this season.

If Harden is just going to isolate, a more effective play for the Rockets the past two seasons than the pick-and-roll, then Tucker's ability to space the floor as a center is more valuable than the threat posed by Capela lurking in the dunker spot. And defensively, taking Capela off the court enables Houston to switch nearly every opponent screen without creating mismatches.

 

Part of the challenge with playing Tucker heavy minutes at center was simply finding enough perimeter players to fill out the rotation. Enter Covington, who gives the Rockets one of the league's better 3-and-D role players.

Since being waived by Houston (which signed him as an undrafted rookie) and emerging as a starter in Philadelphia, Covington has consistently rated far better by plus-minus metrics than the eye test would suggest. As adjusted plus-minus pioneer Steve Ilardi recently noted on Twitter, the five-year version of regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) on NBAshotcharts.com -- which factors in only team performance adjusted for teammates and opponents as well as luck on 3-point shots -- has Covington 23rd in the NBA over that span. Of the 22 players ahead of Covington, only three others (Patrick Beverley, Eric Bledsoe and Nurkic) have also never been chosen an All-Star.

ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), which also incorporates box-score stats for added stability, is nearly as effusive about Covington's value. His worst single-season RPM rating since 2014-15, when he landed with the Sixers, was plus-1.6 points per 100 possessions. He has been among the NBA's top 75 players in RPM each of those years, ranking 55th so far this season.

Much of Covington's unheralded value can be traced to his steal rate, which has consistently ranked near the top of the league. Steals typically help teams more than is conventionally believed, and Covington's teams have allowed a lower defensive rating with him on the court every season of his career, according to Cleaning the Glass -- including differentials that put him in the 96th and 99th percentile of all players in 2016-17 and 2017-18, respectively. The latter season, Covington was recognized as an All-Defensive first-team pick for the first time in his career.

Somewhat surprisingly, Covington's teams have typically been better offensively with him on the court too, including an 8.2-point differential this season. Covington isn't a good enough ball handler to reliably create shots for himself or others, but he's a career 36% 3-point shooter on sufficient volume (8.0 attempts per 36 minutes this season) to score with above-average efficiency over the three years since he has been surrounded by NBA-caliber starters.

That combination of skill set and size makes Covington similar to Danny Green, who has filled a 3-and-D role on two championship teams (in San Antonio and Toronto). In fact, FiveThirtyEight's player projections have Green as Covington's best match. (He's third in my SCHOENE similarity scores, with Trevor Ariza No. 1.) Like Green, Covington isn't good enough to single-handedly prop up a bad defense (as we've seen this season in Minnesota) and needs talented teammates to be effective offensively. But put him in the right situation and Covington can help a very good team become great.

We've gone this far without discussing Covington's contract, which is nearly as important to his trade value as his on-court ability. Covington came to Philadelphia on one of then-GM Sam Hinkie's favored multiyear contracts for the minimum. After Hinkie was replaced by Bryan Colangelo, the 76ers boosted his low salary as part of a rare renegotiation and extension, with the extension part of the contract kicking in last season. Covington makes just $11.3 million this season, putting him outside the NBA's top 100 salaries, and he is under contract with modest raises through 2021-22.

Thanks to his contract, Covington has about as much surplus value above and beyond his salary as any player in the NBA who's neither a superstar making the max nor on his rookie contract. Entering this season, my projections put him first among this group, just ahead of Lou Williams.

There is reason for concern about Covington's health. He missed the final 45 games last season because of a bone bruise in his right knee that ultimately required a debridement surgery and removal of loose bodies to alleviate discomfort. Though Covington has yet to sit out a game this season because of injury (the one he missed was for personal reasons), it could become a long-term issue.

Still, I think Covington is valuable enough to justify the Rockets giving up their first-round pick, especially if -- as Adrian Wojnarowski pointed out on Twitter -- they're able to expand the deal before it's finalized to take back more salary. Houston could legally add $12 million through this deal and can spend up to $5.8 million of that without going into the luxury tax.

Presumably, the target would be a center option. Though Bell could help the Rockets fill some minutes as a switching 5 -- the role he played with the Warriors -- it's no surprise that our Tim MacMahon reports Houston is still on the hunt for additional help there to keep Tucker from regular-season wear and tear. The Rockets have opened up a pair of roster spots with the trades and could also be active on the buyout market.

 

My posts which you have responded to, clearly critiques the trade ONLY in the aspect that the 1st rounder was used to get under the tax. This view is predicated on this tweet.

Not sure how what you are arguing when the post I've written explicitly states: One: I didn't dislike the trade of Capela for Covington & Two; That IF the 1st rounder was used only to get rid of nene/green's contract it was a bad move from a basketball standpoint.

 

I really wanted either Keita Bates-Diop or Jarred Vanderbilt in return as well.

Trade not consummated yet so there may still be hope. Slight as it is.

 

Tsunami Papi and Baynes!

 

ok? didn't know there was some arguing here *shrugs*

right after that he puts this out. echos most of what was discussed in his podcast

 

Wait what?

This makes no sense whatsoever you were the claiming Gobert outplayed Capel.

I see you don't have a good argument you were just waisting my time.

Good day sir!

 

when i said arguing - didn't mean anything negative or wrong by it.

I'm simply wondering what part of my posts/points were you disagreeing with?

 

from the looks of it, it seems the importance of the frp. you seemingly value it way more than i do. was it unexpected? probably but that doesn't change the benefits of the actual trade much for me

 

It still blows my mind that we had Russ and Harden 2 of the best PNR players and highest usage PNR guys with a great PNR C and we stopped going to that simply because James wants to look pretty and ISO

 

Thanks for sharing this, good stuff!!

Should have it's own thread and stickied for every member of GARM to read.