Super interesting. Seems logical and makes sense... though also seems like a guess. @malakas you buying this explanation/guess?
Interesting write-up: https://www.vox.com/2020/1/27/21082354/coronavirus-outbreak-wuhan-china-early-on-lancet
Also, you can't look at mortality rate alone. A high mortality rate is better in some ways because the virus will burn itself out quickly and better respond to direct control measures, like Ebola. A lower mortality rate attached to a robust strain will expose many, many more people and thus cause many more deaths, like Spanish flu. Seems like what we are dealing with is closer to the latter, but 2019-nCoV still has higher spread and mortality numbers than Spanish flu.
Travel Warning issued by the CDC: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/warning/novel-coronavirus-china CDC recommends that travelers avoid all nonessential travel to China
The mortality rate is artificially high. Just in the span of a few hours the cases grew by 50%. In a few hours China will make a new announcement. I don't dare to make any predictions that it will again grow that much but don't be surprised if by the end of this week the total cases are over 20.000. The reason that it's still so few in Wuhan, is that they don't have virus kits to confirm infection in "suspected cases". Thankfully now WHO decided to send experts from around the world in China to study transmission and infection and in the US labs have begun sharing technology so the production of virus kits will rise. Also except from the newest one in France who is a 80 year old man, currently in severe condition, most of the cases outside of China are younger and didn't have pre existing conditions.
What makes me angry is that the Communist Party only sent 2 thousand army medics to help 30 million people. In a country of more than one billion that's the best you can do? Really? Maybe take some medics away from the Ugyuhrs camps where the illegal organ transplants are done ,and send them where they can do actual medical work.
Just got back from China over the weekend. Was at a restaurant Chinese new year eve in Shanghai. No one was there. Empty. The UA flight back to US was packed including a CDC official.
This is how the zombie apocalypse begins. Or planet of the apes. Plenty of time to catch up on these documentaries...
None. The situation is not as dire as reported. There is a sense of panic on the streets, everyone is wearing mask. But in terms of a real chance of being infected, I think it is slim to none. I got there right after the CES. The business was as usual. The alert and locked-down took place after 1-19. I remember clearly I just got back from a little nice break in Suzou to Shanghai. The next thing I know was Shanghai in semi-lock down.
Were masks widely available? No shortages? One woman with no symptoms in Germany already infected 3 and 40 others will be tested tomorrow. The infected only had symptoms of mild cold over the weekend and even had gone back to work. So no matter how small the chance, if you develop any symptoms of cold in the next two weeks it is wise to visit your GP. I am sure you are well aware of it already. Take care.
Thanks. Masks are sold out in China. I ordered some for our office in Shanghai from the US and they were sold out here too. More important Masks were not worn correctly in China and there was no sanitizing stuff in the public (like liquid soap in public restrooms and wipes on the bus/metro). While the virus is airborne, it's within 6 foot radius spread, but washing hands often is probably more important than wearing mask (which cannot cover eyes). More problematic places I think are closed space in public, like train, plane, etc. If I were to be infected already, likely on that UA plane coming back from China. There were indeed people flocking out of China on a flight that was half full just a week ago (I bought the ticket that time and place myself on the upgrade list)
Yeah, they said because of the flu american shops have also shortages on masks. So if anyone wants to prepare themselves it is better to go buy now before it becomes even worse. But indeed masks are not the best way to protect from infection, washing hands with soap is the best and most efficient way. The latest is that not only it infects through air droplets but also through direct contact. The good news are that children though can be easily infected, very few develop severe symptoms. So if you want to be on the safe side, it is better to avoid direct contact like handshakes with older people or those who have pre existing conditions like diabetes, high blood pressure, heart and lung problems. China right now is rounding up every "escapee" from Hubei and especially Wuhan and puts them in designated hotels - camps. There are 5 million people from Wuhan alone who left before the lockdown. I am sure that you will be fine but always better to be safe than sorry. God bless.
