Spoiler 5. Cleveland Indians (397.5) Projected starters 1. Mike Clevinger (Score of 452.6 ranks No. 8; 1st-division No. 1) 2. Shane Bieber (Score of 444.8 ranks No. 12; 1st-division No. 1) 3. Carlos Carrasco (Score of 399.1 ranks No. 30; 2nd-division No. 1) 4. Zach Plesac (Score of 337.7 ranks No. 105; 1st-division No. 4) 5. Aaron Civale (Score of 334.1 ranks No. 111; 2nd-division No. 4) 6. Adam Plutko (Score of 321.4 ranks No. 137; 2nd-division No. 5) 7. Logan Allen (Score of 303.6 ranks No. 183; 1st-division No. 7) The Indians Pitching Factory has become a thing over the past couple of seasons, as Cleveland just keeps churning out productive starters. Even without Bauer and Corey Kluber, the tandem of Clevinger and Bieber still gives the Tribe one of baseball's best one-two punches. Carrasco gives them a third No. 1, though with an overall No. 30 ranking, he's at the cutoff into becoming a No. 2. Even so, on paper there's a stark drop off to Plesac in the 4-hole, and the penny-pinching Indians need the factory to keep churning out its signature product. In this case, that would be in the form of Plesac, Civale and Plutko outproducing their projections just as Clevinger and Bieber did last season. 6. Texas Rangers (391.7) Projected starters 1. Lance Lynn (Score of 439.0 ranks No. 14; 1st-division No. 1) 2. Mike Minor (Score of 404.4 ranks No. 27; 2nd-division No. 1) 3. Corey Kluber (Score of 392.1 ranks No. 36; 1st-division No. 2) 4. Kyle Gibson (Score of 382.3 ranks No. 45; 1st-division No. 2) 5. Jordan Lyles (Score of 347.3 ranks No. 88; 2nd-division No. 3) 6. Kolby Allard (Score of 314.4 ranks No. 151; 1st-division No. 6) 7. Brock Burke (Score of 307.8 ranks No. 168; 2nd-division No. 6) You might not think of Lynn as an ace, even though he finished fifth in the last year's AL Cy Young balloting. In our book, if you project as a first-division No. 1, you're an ace. Rangers GM Jon Daniels has put together his strongest on-paper rotation in years. This system sees Texas as flashing two No. 1s, two No. 2s and a No. 3. That's pretty good. And don't sleep on Allard as the depth option. He's not that far removed from top-prospect status. The Rangers' roster needs some work, but without springing for a mega-contract, Daniels has shored up a glaring weakness in the Texas outlook. 7. Boston Red Sox (389.4) Projected starters 1. Chris Sale (Score of 469.1 ranks No. 6; 1st-division No. 1) 2. Eduardo Rodriguez (Score of 413.7 ranks No. 22; 2nd-division No. 1) 3. David Price (Score of 379.6 ranks No. 46; 2nd-division No. 2) 4. Martin Perez (Score of 337.4 ranks No. 106; 2nd-division No. 4) 5. Nathan Eovaldi (Score of 336.1 ranks No. 108; 2nd-division No. 4) 6. Tanner Houck (Score of 294.4 ranks No. 206; 2nd-division No. 7) 7. Hector Velazquez (Score of 293.8 ranks No. 207; 2nd-division No. 7) Obviously this rating is predicated on the Red Sox getting bounce-back seasons from Sale and Price, and Rodriguez maintaining his gains from last season. And those things need to happen because the outlook for the rest of the rotation is more of a "just hanging in there" proposition. Perez had his moments in Minnesota last seasonbut faded badly down the stretch. He slots as a second-division No. 4 -- not the worst outlook for a team's fourth starter, but not the best for a contending club. And it's hard to see much in terms of untapped upside in either Perez or Eovaldi. 8. Tampa Bay Rays (389.3) Projected starters 1. Charlie Morton (Score of 448.0 ranks No. 11; 1st-division No. 1) 2. Blake Snell (Score of 426.1 ranks No. 19; 2nd-division No. 1) 3. Tyler Glasnow (Score of 371.5 ranks No. 50; 2nd-division No. 2) 4. Yonny Chirinos (Score of 344.1 ranks No. 96; 1st-division No. 4) 5. Ryan Yarbrough (Score of 342.9 ranks No. 100; 1st-division No. 4) 6. Brendan McKay (Score of 318.5 ranks No. 140; 2nd-division No. 5) 7. Brent Honeywell (Score of 309.5 ranks No. 165; 1st-division No. 6) Check out the rotation scores for Boston and Tampa Bay -- 389.4 for the BoSox and 389.3 for the Rays. Virtually no difference. But then look at the names and consider the yawning chasm in upside. If you were Tampa Bay lead exec Erik Neander, would you trade your rotation straight up for that of former colleague Chaim Bloom? (We're ignoring the considerable financial implications here -- just straight up baseball.) No way. That's because as strong as the Rays look on paper as constituted, when you consider Morton's consistency, a full healthy season for Snell, health and secondary pitch development for the flame-throwing Glasnow and the lofty prospect statuses of McKay and Honeywell, this group has the potential to be baseball's best. Kevin Cash may not be calling on many openers in 2020. 9. Houston Astros (388.2) Projected starters 1. Justin Verlander (Score of 501.3 ranks No. 4; 1st-division No. 1) 2. Zack Greinke (Score of 413.6 ranks No. 23; 2nd-division No. 1) 3. Lance McCullers Jr. (Score of 335.4 ranks No. 109; 2nd-division No. 4) 4. Jose Urquidy (Score of 334.4 ranks No. 110; 2nd-division No. 4) 5. Rogelio Armenteros (Score of 313.9 ranks No. 153; 1st-division No. 6) 6. Framber Valdez (Score of 312.5 ranks No. 159; 1st-division No. 6) 7. Cristian Javier (Score of 296.8 ranks No. 196; 2nd-division No. 7) You would expect the Astros to add at least some kind of veteran presence to this mix, though they might have to free up some money to do so. If this is the group, Houston will be hoping for a couple of breakouts among Armenteros, Valdez, Javier and possibly Forrest Whitley, Cionel Perez or Bryan Abreu. It's not the worst bet. While Houston's system is thinner than it has been in years, its organizational starting pitching remains a strength. Nevertheless, it's a more uncertain group than it has been the past couple of years, and a lot of its relative success hinges on a strong recovery by McCullers from Tommy John surgery. 10. Los Angeles Dodgers (386.2) Projected starters 1. Clayton Kershaw (Score of 448.0 ranks No. 10; 1st-division No. 1) 2. Walker Buehler (Score of 441.9 ranks No. 13; 1st-division No. 1) 3. Kenta Maeda (Score of 362.4 ranks No. 64; 1st-division No. 3) 4. Ross Stripling (Score of 332.8 ranks No. 115; 2nd-division No. 4) 5. Tony Gonsolin (Score of 314.0 ranks No. 152; 1st-division No. 6) 6. Dustin May (Score of 313.9 ranks No. 153; 1st-division No. 6) 7. Julio Urias (Score of 312.8 ranks No. 158; 1st-division No. 6) As with the Astros, L.A. will be looking for some youthful ascendants among Gonsolin, May and Urias. Because it's the Dodgers, you almost assume this will happen. Still, this is yet another team that you'd expect to add a veteran free agent. And the Dodgers' reliability in this area would certainly be bolstered by a reunion with Ryu.
Spoiler The next five 11. Cardinals (374.4) 12. Phillies (372.7) 13. Cubs (369.9) 14. Braves (368.2) 15. Diamondbacks (365.6) If Korean import Kim slots as a true No. 2 or so for St. Louis, the Cardinals will feature a top-10 group. And if getting-long-in-the-tooth prospect Alex Reyes can finally turn the corner, it could be a rotation of exceptional depth. Such a development would cover the Redbirds against a sudden decline for stalwart Adam Wainwright. The Phillies figure to have a couple of No. 1s in Aaron Nola and Wheeler, but for this group to shine, it'll need a bounce-back in health and effectiveness from Jake Arrieta. The Cubs and the Diamondbacks will likely enter the season with these numbers locked in, but the Braves may still add to a mix that now includes Cole Hamels. Five after that 16. Rockies (364.0) 17. White Sox (361.8) 18. Padres (359.5) 19. Twins (357.1) 20. Angels (352.3) This is the most fascinating group in the entire rankings. The Rockies, it seemed, finally cracked the problem of featuring a strong rotation at Coors Field in 2018. Then last year, nearly the entire pitching staff went into the toilet. The White Sox have added Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez after missing out on Wheeler. They are probably finished adding in that area, so for Chicago to feature a playoff-caliber rotation, it'll need two or three of its young pitchers to turn the corner, with the focus falling on Reynaldo Lopez, Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech. Then we have the Angels and Twins. The Angels have done more to add to their rotation by trading for Dylan Bundy and signing Julio Teheran. But after missing out on Cole, Bumgarner, Wheeler and Keuchel, they are not there yet. Shohei Ohtani might rate as an ace on a per-inning basis, but right now it seems like the Angels won't be targeting more than 20 starts or so for his first year back on the mound after surgery. The Twins re-upped with Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda, while bidding adieu to Martin Perez and Kyle Gibson. (Pineda will miss the first few weeks of the 2020 season because of a PED suspension.) The Twins have not added an external starter yet despite reportedly being in the mix for guys like Bumgarner and Wheeler. Minnesota needs to find another couple of starters if it wants to survive regression in 2020, much less take the next step toward title contention. Five more 21. Athletics (349.5) 22. Brewers (347.4) 23. Pirates (345.2) 24. Tigers (344.5) 25. Royals (337.8) The A's have a lot more cachet with their rotation than these numbers indicate. First, the numbers for Sean Manaea are muted because of his long injury absence, but he looked terrific down the stretch last season. And the Oakland system may be on the verge of turning out a couple of possible aces in Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk. Oakland should easily end up with a top-15 rotation, with the potential for even better than that. The only other contender in this group is Milwaukee. The Brewers also probably rate a little better in reality, if only because Lindblom is tough to project based on his up-and-down career. His sudden allure for MLB teams was based on a steep uptick in Korea after he honed his split-fingered fastball. Still, Milwaukee needs Brandon Woodruff to become a No. 1 and Corbin Burnes to make a leap. Even then, the Brewers may be once again headed for the bottom five in rotation innings. Bottom five 26. Marlins (337.7) 27. Blue Jays (337.4) 28. Giants (335.8) 29. Mariners (327.1) 30. Orioles (320.4) These are not your father's Giants. The magnificent free-agent seven 20. Larrupin' Limbos (355.3) 1. Hyun-Jin Ryu (Score of 403.2 ranks No. 28; 2nd-division No. 1) 2. Rich Hill (Score of 364.4 ranks No. 58; 2nd-division No. 2) 3. Homer Bailey (Score of 352.0 ranks No. 82; 2nd-division No. 3) 4. Ivan Nova (Score of 347.5 ranks No. 91; 1st-division No. 4) 5. Jhoulys Chacin (Score of 341.2 ranks No. 106; 2nd-division No. 4) 6. Alex Wood (Score of 312.7 ranks No. 162; 1st-division No. 6) 7. Robbie Erlin (Score of 308.1 ranks No. 171; 2nd-division No. 6) The free-agent market has thinned, but there are a couple of good options even beyond Ryu. Hill will miss the first part of next season after elbow surgery, but he'll likely contribute to a contender at some point next season. More than anything, his resiliency is something you can count on. Since I know you're wondering, for these rankings we took this projected rotation for the Limbos and subbed it in for the Orioles' starters -- which improved the overall quality of starting pitching in the major leagues. The Limbos ranked 20th.
I really like what CWS has done this offseason. They’re geared to overtake CLE and potentially challenge MIN at the top of the Central. Kuechel can really help the young arms mature. Giolito, Kopech, Rodon, Cease, and Lopez will all really benefit from having a vet like DK around. They’ll have an above average rotation once Kopech comes up (and even before then, arguably). Their lineup isn’t the easiest to navigate, either. Good ballclub. Sidenote: with Ryu to TOR, Price to LAA seems inevitable...no?
It feels weird not being at the top, but we can't be rigged everywhere like the last few years. At the end of the day, we have a top 10 rotation and the best lineup in baseball. Just can't have the lineup go cold in the playoffs again.
Its gonna be interesting how arlington pans out this year. That rotation is pretty decent and their lineup isnt terrible.
For sure. Our division could be the best in baseball next year. Everyone is average or better besides the Mariners.
MLB should be much more competitive all around. In the AL, only the Blue Jays, Rangers, Royals, Tigers, Mariners, and Orioles appears to have almost no chance at the playoffs, and of those the Blue Jays and Rangers look like they’re still going to try. Which leaves 4 teams tanking. In the NL, the Rockies, Giants, and Marlins are the only crummy teams and of those only the Marlins are actively tanking. Rockies and Giants really need to embrace their inevitable rebuilds.
It could be a perception problem, but they look terrible to me. Joey Gallo could make the Astros team. Maybe their starting catcher could backup Maldonado. After that, Astros would probably rather have a 3rd catcher.
Ehhh... personally not a big fan of those rankings. The rotation obviously isn't as good as the one we finished last year with. Yet, Verlander and Greinke at the top are very good. Urquidy pitched like a #2-3 starter once he came back up and McCullers is back. That should give you 4 well above average starters...... Whitley will either be in the rotation of traded for someone in the rotation and we still likely add someone else at some point. There are more question marks, but they rotation should still be a strength....
I believe so. In fantasy he’s eligible for 2B, SS, and OF, so he has played several positions. Not sure how competent his SS play is or if he’s actually Lindors replacement, just opining.
I don't think Reddick makes the Astros team for cost savings. I can see an argument for cost savings for Brantley, but I'd rather go with Brantley. Santana has too much risk when Astros may be taking a risk with Tucker already.
On paper I don't see how our rotation is significantly worse than it was heading into last season Verlander-Verlander Cole>Greinke (but not by a ton) Miley>LMJ McHugh<Urquidy Peacock-Peacock Framber-Framber I suspect LMJ will produce similar or better results than Miley in total, but wont log as many starts. Our 5th starter was basically trash for the entire season and we could easily upgrade that. If we add one league average arm to stabilize I would say our regular season rotation is just as good. We really do need one of the prospects to step up for October, preferably 2 so we don't have to spend more trade assets.
I know a lot of people are really wanting to add a reclamation starter with the idea of added upside. I am fine with that, but I also am completely fine with Urquidy, McCullers and other internal options getting a chance. Internal options in the rotation coming through make a huge difference in the long term viability of the Astros. If we do not have some guys step up internally then we will be rebuilding. Verlander and Greinke will not be here forever. Even McCullers has limited time left. We need pitchers like Urquidy and Whitley and possibly Christian Javier and Frances Martes to emerge. Even if we get an ace or two through free agency or trade, we need a 3-5.
Yup.. Let the young guys have chance. If we need to add at the deadline Luhnow will get it done. The cost of starting pitching this offseason has gonna bananas and some of that is because of the success the Nats/Astros had last season with their starters. Developing cost controlled pitchers is key when you consider Bregman, Altuve, Correa and Springer were making under 10 million COMBINED when we won the World Series and are going to make over 70 million next season.
I see your point. Just saying regardless our rotation is more than good enough. Felt like it was our bats that hurt us last post season. Wayyy too hot and cold.
