Yep... although Boston is also under pressure to slash payroll given their regressing results. In the end, as you know, its all about how the team does. If this team wasn't such a dynamo/power-house, being an odds-on favorite to win the WS for the last 3 years, you could see payroll plummet pretty quickly. Los Angeles also has ownership groups who aren't only savvy business-men, but huge baseball fans... in a market that is unlike the Cubs and won't just support the team because they're there. A part of me is secretly excited about the eventual Luhnow tear-down/rebuild/reload... because you already know he's possibly better at that than he is at maintaining a contender (of which he's excellent at as well). Of course he may also decide to take a break or move on to something else whenever this core's run comes to an end... I would guess this off-season, and the pressure of maintaining this nearly unprecedented run has taken its toll on him.
I knew my original projection for Cole of 7/8y for 280m+ wasn’t as ludicrous as some posters thought. Cole is going to get paid an ungodly amount and Strasburg’s deal pretty much solidifies that.
I don’t recall my exact predictions but I was way wrong on how much he’d get. I didn’t see this spending bonanza coming. To me, that Strasburg deal essentially ensures Washington will spend 2025-2030 as a mediocre team at best. If anyone other than the Dodgers or Yankees gives Cole $275M+ they will be signing up for the same fate. But from the Yankees/Dodgers perspective there’s really no amount that can cripple them on its own.
Yup. Almost reminds me of the Jordan Zimmerman, Justin Upton, Jeff Samardzija overspending days. Seems like the market is trending towards SPs getting paid unsustainable amounts. Heightens the pressure on teams to develop young arms again now more than ever. Urquidy, Whitley et al are becoming that much more valuable/important, and us having Greinke at 24m per year is looking pretty solid. I didn’t think there was a shot MadBum saw 5y/100m, but it may just happen. At this point, I’d almost prefer the Astros to gamble from within (LMJ, Whitley, Urquidy, etc.) then going out and spending 75+ on MOR arms. We can’t afford to overpay the upper echelon pitchers.
Yep, Greinke on a ~$46M/2yr contract looks like a steal today. I’m not stoked about the 4-5 spots being manned by a competition of Urquidy, Peacock, James, Armenteros, Framber, Martes, Sneed, Bielak, Javier, Emanuel, Abreu, Whitley, and Perez, but if the prices are this crazy then there’s not much choice given Houstons financial restrictions, and it’s not the end of the world. It could even be a boon for the Astros if one or more young pitchers breaks out and gets established as a long term piece. All that said, I still expect Luhnow to make a move, whether they slightly overpay for a Porcello/Bailey/Wood type or trade good prospects for a MoR SP.
https://www.mlb.com/news/astros-owner-prepared-for-team-to-pay-luxury-tax SAN DIEGO -- With the Astros set to soar past the luxury tax threshold for the first time in their history with a payroll north of $208 million in 2020, owner Jim Crane said Monday the team remains fully capable of being able to fill its needs this winter despite the payroll limitations. The Astros, who lost in seven games in the World Series to the Nationals following a 107-win regular season, hit the Winter Meetings on Monday looking to add at least one starting pitcher and a reliever and identify a starting catcher. Even without making any moves of significance yet this winter, the Astros’ payroll has skyrocketed in part because of recent extensions given to second baseman José Altuve, third baseman Alex Bregman and pitcher Justin Verlander and the July trade to land pitcher Zack Greinke. “I think anybody can do the math on where we’re at,” Crane told MLB.com via phone Monday. “We’ve got a few holes. We need to sign a catcher, need a few arms -- bullpen, maybe a starter. When you look at those ingredients and look at where we’re at, more than likely that will put us over the luxury tax.” That means the Astros will have to pay a 20 percent tax on the amount they exceed $208 million. If they exceed the luxury threshold by $20 million to $40 million, they would have to pay an additional 12 percent tax. Re-signing free-agent pitcher Gerrit Cole would almost certainly push Houston past the second threshold, but it doesn’t appear Houston has much chance of re-signing the right-hander. “We said we’re going to check in [on Cole] and we will check in,” Crane said. Booming revenues following three consecutive 100-win seasons, including a World Series title in 2017, have put the Astros in position to push their payroll higher than ever before. “Because of the support we’ve had with the fans and the sponsors, we’re comfortable where we’re at and we knew we’re going to be there and it’s not a big surprise,” Crane said. “We want to put a good product on the field, and we’ve got a good nucleus with a very good team. We just want to make sure hopefully we get back to where we were last [season].” Like last year’s signing of Wade Miley, the Astros will be looking to mid-level starters rather than shopping at the high end of the market. Their best bullpen addition could be bringing back steady right-hander Will Harris, who’s a free agent for the first time. Robinson Chirinos, who caught all of Verlander’s starts last season, and Martín Maldonado are both free agents and one of them could return. The club also has interest in free-agent catcher Jason Castro. “I think there’s no doubt we’ll still be the favorites in the division just because of the nucleus we have and the bats we have,” Crane said. “We’ve got two or three or four pretty good pitchers, front-line pitchers. I think if anybody does the math, we would be favored to win the division.” The Astros, of course, are being investigated by Major League Baseball following allegations the club used cameras to steal signs during the 2017 season. Crane said the ongoing investigation -- and any subsequent penalties -- have no bearing on how the club proceeds this offseason personnel-wise. “The investigation with MLB, we’re fully cooperating,” he said. “And when they’re done and whatever findings they have, then we’ll be happy to talk about those when the time comes.” https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sp...ook-like-also-ran-in-Gerrit-Cole-14894369.php According to a person with direct knowledge of the situation, the Astros have not had an in-person meeting with Cole since the World Series ended. Luhnow said he met with members of agent Scott Boras’ team during the GM meetings in November. Three teams — the Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels and New York Yankees — have distanced themselves as front-runners to sign Cole, a person familiar with the negotiations said. All three have met with the pitcher at his California home.
Anybody have a counter examples of big power pitchers with Cole's build and delivery that blew their arms out? Thinking of similar players like Ryan, Verlander, and Clemens (steroids enhanced) that pitched into their 40's which projects well for Cole. Seems like the smaller guys like Pedro had shorter shelf lives.
I don’t know about “blowing their arm out“, but all pitchers lose velocity and “it” sooner rather than later. A few examples of power pitchers who succumbed to wear and tear that come to mind are Beckett, Ubaldo Jimenez, Sabathia, Sheets, Zambrano and Javier Vazquez (criminally underrated). Some are able to adjust and others aren’t. All things considered, I love Cole, but giving him 37m per year through age 37 is certainly a huge risk. Edit, unrelated, but: my guess = SFG
Phillies has been rumors to make a play for Cole. I really doubt Astros are even involved with Cole at this point. Or at any point after game 7.
Certainly. usually the team linked to the player and declared “favorties” are intentional leaks from the players’ agent in order to drive up interest. it’s really silly that the media continues to operate and report on these rumors in the same way as was done in the 90’s and 2000’s.... with social media And twitter, everyone can literally see now one rumor being regurgitated by dozens.
Crazy hypothetical trade: Reds get: SS Carlos Correa OF Josh Reddick Astros get: SP Nick Lodolo 3B Jonathan India IF Tyler Callihan SP Lyon Richardson That clears >$20M in payroll. Astros then sign a cheap infielder (there’s a ton available: Travis Shaw, Cesar Hernandez, Ben Zobrist, Matt Duffy, Starlin Castro, Addison Russell, Tim Beckham), a RP (Harris?), and a BoR SP (Bailey, Porcello, Wood, Roark, Gonzalez, Miley). Then trade prospects (Javier, Ivey, Pena, Callihan) for Contreras. New roster: CF Springer 3B Bregman LF Brantley 2B Altuve DH Alvarez 1B Gurriel C Contreras* RF Tucker SS Diaz Bench: Toro, Straw, Garneau, Duffy* Rotation: Verlander, Greinke, Porcello*, McCullers, Urquidy Bullpen: Biagini, Devenski, Abreu, James, Peacock, Harris*, Pressly, Osuna And the farm would feature Whitley, Lodolo, and India as Top 100 prospects with enviable depth on both pitching and position sides.
If Correa's back is fine, no way Astros do this trade. If Correa's back isn't fine, no way Cincy does this trade.