Fangraphs has 2020 Steamer projections out, and Houston has 3 of the top 11 position players (4 of the top 30). https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=0
Well that is good to hear. Cole is obviously the longest of long shots, but the flexibility of having payroll breach that threshold for at least one season will make things easier this off-season nonetheless.
While I don't take this to mean we're going to re-sign Cole, I think it's a great sign that Crane obviously isn't shying away from going into the luxury tax. That's a great sign for not only this offseason but for offseasons to come.
Good article comparing Wheeler to Cole pre-trade. https://www.dodgersnation.com/dodge...-wheeler-as-a-backup-plan-to-cole/2019/11/03/
"Obviously there are certain players that we're gonna have at the top of our list, and we're gonna do what we can to see if we can get them to come here."
Not sure his health status but Danny Salazar was cut loose by the Indians. If he’s healthy he might be an interesting reclamation project.
I wonder which odds were better. Randy Johnson re-signing here after 98 season or Cole re-signing this winter
Twins giving Odorizzi qualifying offer https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/twins-to-issue-qualifying-offer-to-jake-odorizzi.html
I think you are underestimating the pitching market. I wouldn't be surprised if Odorizzi received a contract similar to Eovaldi which was 17 million a year for 4 years. In 2018 Eovaldi was 6-7 with a 3.81 ERA in only 111 IP. He turned that plus his post season run into 4 years 68 million. Odorizzi was 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA and threw 159 innings. He's also made a minimum of 28 starts the last 6 years. He's going to get 3-4 years at 16 million plus if he doesn't take the qualifying offer.
His performance last season was easily worth over $30 million. Question for Odorizzi is whether he can sustain his HR/FB rate given how many fly balls he gives up.
As expected, Houston profiles as excellent at 2B (1st), SS (2nd), 3B (1st), CF (3rd), DH (2nd), and SP1 (4th). Greinke (38), McCullers (36), and Urquidy (68) profile as solid SP. Gurriel projects as roughly average at 1B. RF and LF are harder to parse out the rankings but a combo of Reddick and Tucker seem to profile as slightly below average in RF while Brantley projects as solidly above average in LF. Bullpen projections at this time of year are to be taken with a grain of salt but the system projects Pressly, James, Osuna, and Framber to be high quality RP, with Peacock, Devenski, Abreu, and Biagini all expected to be above replacement level. All this to say these projections support what we all have been thinking: Houston needs help at catcher, and could probably stand to add a frontline starting pitcher. The bullpen could use another quality arm or two but the need isn’t glaring. Looking at available players’ projections, Grandal (1st), D’Arnaud (13th), and Castro (15th) are the only free agent catchers that Steamer expects to be average or better. Alex Avila, Yan Gomes, and Maldonado are also in the top 30. Interestingly, they are not high on Chirinos, who they expect to post a middling 0.7 WAR in 368 pa. Of note, Grandal is the only available catcher Steamer expects to be above average offensively. Cole tops the SP projections, with no other free agents in the top 30. Wheeler, Ryu, Gibson, Keuchel, and Odorizzi fall in the 31-60 range. Bumgarner, Hamels, Pineda, Hill, and Porcello are ranked between 61 and 90. No other free agents project for more than 1.7 WAR. As for trade candidates, Jon Gray stands out to me ranked 25th. Unless the Indians make their SP available, no one else in the Top 30 appears to be a trade candidate.
Michael Pineda and Anthony Morrow are intriguing. Kendall Graveman is a random guy who could eat some innings for cheap. McCullers Jr is a guy everyone points to as helping with the Cole loss, but he is coming off Tommy John. The first year back is usually ok and then the second year is when the pitcher really starts to regain form. I'm not as confident as some he will be a consistent ToR starter for us next year.
Not that he would want to do it, but would moving Correa to 3B help with his back problems? A healthy Correa at 3B is just as good if not better than Rendon (and a lot more payroll friendly).
As Free Agency opens what I'd like to see: SP: Kyle Gibson RP: Drew Pomeranz, Colin McHugh, Brandon Morrow Catcher: Yasmani Grandal, Alex Avila Prediction of what we'll actually get: SP: Gio Gonzalez RP: Drew Pomeranz, Joe Smith Catcher: Austin Romine, Alex Avila
why? Cuz Suzuki wearing a MAGA hat or cuz the Nats visiting WH for winning WS? If it about Suzuki and the hat, we shouldn’t bring politic in here. If it the latter, it’s over with. Let’s look forward to a another great season from the Astros in 2020.