Best is the player that adds the most value to his team. Most valuable is the player that adds the most value to his team. MVP is an individual award. Let the most valuable player on a playoff team get himself a World Series Ring if he wants a team based award.
I’d only go team record as the deciding factor if the numbers are very close. It’s not like Mike Trout can do anything else to make his team better. In this scenario, Bregman’s not quite there yet. Props to him for legitimately getting in the conversation though.
Honestly, even though I put my two cents in as well, I'm getting so tired of these subjective awards in all sports, particularly "Most Valuable Player." It's not because Houston players tend to get runner-up; I just tend to be exposed to it because of that. It's the insufferable, neverending discussions, arguments, narratives, and everything else around it. Just get rid of that award for all I care. It doesn't mean anything anymore.
Mike Trout is the best player on earth. Most likely one of the 5 best players in the history of baseball. Give your awards to whoever you want to. ...and I'm not saying you're wrong at all.
Now this is a good post! Trout is widely regarded as the most talented offensive player in all of baseball. He passes they eye test, the stats metrics test, dude is absolutely amazing. Nobody is legit going to argue how great a defensive OF and offensive force he is (a legit 5 tool player). And we have Bregman, who has turned himself into a dark horse MVP contender as of last season; and this season is proving it isn’t a fluke. Now let’s not forget that though Bregman is on a juggernaut of a team, he has shouldered the offensive weight on this team, as it’s dealt with a lot of injuries, and the team still has won as many games as anyone else in the MLB. Bregman isn’t as good as Trout. Well news flash is that nobody is! Even the Bryce Harper comparison seems comedic. But Bregman is the best player and most consistent guy in the Astros, and the Astros have kept winning though guys have slumped, gotten injured, etc. But if some voters look at the total package, Bregman might just be the one type of guy who can legitimately lay claim to deserving the MVP crown over Trout on this season at least.
is there a way to determine quality at bats with the game in play? Such as runners in scoring position to tie, take a lead, or render a game outside of a save situation? Because, as good as Trout is, well he’s going to have a lot more at bats where a homer isn’t going to be the deciding factor. I’d venture to say Bregman has so many critical game at bats, it’s impressive how he handles them. Hence is there a metric that measures pressure at bats? The ones where you can cut the tension with a knife.
Richard Justice is making the case for Bregs for MVP... https://www.mlb.com/news/alex-bregman-case-for-al-mvp The rest is at the link...
If I still had no full time job I'd have been putting together these stats myself. I don't watch Angels games except when we play them, but I've never been impressed by what Trout does against us. Extremely often when he has a chance to make something happen on offense it doesn't happen. I do remember one game this year where he had a solo hr that ended up being difference but I believe it was in Hou during the 7th or 8th inning. Put this filter together quickly during lunch. https://www.baseball-reference.com/...sc&orderby_second=Name&orderby_dir_second=asc
Win Probability Added (WPA) sounds like what you want. Basically, based on game situation, it measures the chance your team wins a game before and after your at bat and adds up the increase or decrease in win percentage. Down by 6, no one on, and you crank a homer in the ninth. You basically get zero points as the win probability of your team doesn't change. Get a single with man on 3rd 2 outs, tie game in the 9th, you get a lot of the credit for the win. Spoiler Trout is best in AL, though a couple people pass him in the NL
If you're going off of the type of game, isn't that dependent on your teammates, pitchers, etc...? I.E. if your team plays more good games, you get more chances to affect the win? Or something like that?
Yes. WPA is very dependent on team. It heavily weights a small number of events. Not my favorite stat, but it seemed like what vince was looking for.
Trout is the best player but how valuable is he to his team winning, if his team sucks and doesn't win alot? I think winning has to be a big part of the formula, otherwise you would have the same 1-2 players win the mvp every year in all sports
It shouldn't and it won't. Hitters can't pitch, and they only get to bat 12% of the time. Let say the Rockets could only give the ball to Harden 12% of the time, see how that goes. Even then Harden could effect the game without the ball. Trout has to stand around and helplessly watch his teammates suck. That's why winning is meaningful in the NBA, one player effects everything and we can keep feeding him until you find a way to stop it. Mike Trout helps win more games than anybody else in baseball. Whether he adds the most wins to a bad team or a good team is beyond his control.
Agreed. For as much as I love Bregs. Id trade him in a heartbeat for Trout. Also, at this point I think Springer is close to passing Bregs in the pecking order. Imagine if this guy didnt miss significant time.
I have a hard time taking Bregman seriously as an mvp candidate when he is like the 7th or 8th most important piece to us winning a championship. Maybe I’m completely off base, and it’s sort of like choosing your favorite child, but I think that Altuve, Yordan, Springer and Brantley are better hitters and if Correa played full time I think he’s better too. Then, obviously, Cole and JV are more impactful in the post season, likely, than Bregman None of this is a slight on Alex. He’s had a ridiculously good year. But he stands out, amongst his fellow Astros, by being injury free (that counts) not by being particularly better than them when everyone is fully healthy. What a stupid good roster this is.
This is a bizarre take. Bregman by any WAR measurement is the best player on the team this year. Altuve/Yordan/Springer/Brantley are all having great seasons. Springer and Brantley among their best ever and Altuve a great season. Yordan offensively is obviously amazing. Bregman has a significantly higher WAR than Cole or Verlander. The hallmark of Bregman's season is that he's been consistently well above average all year. He is the straw that stirs the drink. Other fun facts: -His wRC+ is higher than Altuve's MVP season -His BB% is higher than his K%, and that gap increased since last year. -He has a .279 ISO while playing a third of his games at SS. This is an all-time offensive season for an Astros player. He's having a prime-Bagwell level season.
War is a counting stat and it measures defense and position. I specifically was talking about hitting and said as much when I said “I think those guys are better hitters than Bregman”. I also acknowledged that, you know, he’s been healthy and the others haven’t so really, no need to talk WAR with me. People can knock Trout all they want for being on a shitty team but it isn’t his fault. I’m pointing out the flip side here, that the Astros are so damn talented that I could play 3B for them and the team would likely still be a playoff team, and Toro could play 3B for them all year and they’d still win the division. So, for anyone that says- how valuable can Trout really be on a shitty team I’m countering with- how valuable is Alex Bregman really, he’s like piling on when you’ve already put together a playoff team. Bregman is great. I’m really glad he’s healthy and locked up long term. I’d just (everyone all healthy and fine) rather have Correa play SS for me- Alvarez up if I need a bomb, Brantley up if I need contact, Altuve if I needed a base hit etc. It’s really not a knock on Alex- it’s a recognition of how amazing this Astros team is, how historic, and my belief that it’s an ensemble cast of stars. If the Astros were a movie they’d be Oceans 11, jam packed full of stars with none of them really absolutely critical or necessary bc the roster is so jam packed.
Well, I brought up wRC+ too and that’s a rate stat. Bregman is above Springer and well above Altuve and Brantley. He trails Yordan but that’s no great shame.
