[Premium Post] I'd suggest going to LWRC.com and follow the dealer links... or alternatively, depending on where you live, go to an independently owned sporting goods store and get somewhere there to assist (in fact, I'd suggest doing that first before buying online, just to get oriented). AVGuns.com is a place where some knowledgeable people shop for high-end goodies to bring some scunion. GOOD DAY
Trump threw so much red meat at the right it’s still bleeding to this day. Why is it that he can play to both the right and the moderate ? And why is it that the left cannot do this. This is a failure of imagination of what can be done and being stuck in some stale state of thinking. The Dem is pretty good at that - kind of funny for a progressive thinking political group vs a conservative thinking political group.
If you grade it on a normal tradition scale, he lost big in every debate. If you grade it for entertainment, he won all the primaries debates. If you grade it on what count - the swing voters in the Midwest - he won them. He spoke about anti trade, making them people great again while Clinton mostly ignored them and didn’t have anything new to offer to them . This isn’t accidental - the trump campaign knew what words to threw out there to win over these swing voters.
Those people don’t matter. The only folks that matter are those swing voters in the Midwest + voters in your base + new voters who haven’t care to participate before. Biden - lackluster among the base and no new voters, but he’s start off as a likely safe bet for the swing voters Progressive left candidate - strong turnout among the base + new voters, but challenges among the swing voters. I haven’t a clue which one is better. But I’m not as concern about the progressive left candidates as some of you. They need to horn their message to swing voters of the Midwest. Health care? What healthcare when you lose your job, and oh you will under the tax giveaway to the top, corny capitalism continue to automate away your jobs, and the right being in bed with the rich and famous. We will take all that back to give you free healthcare for you and your children, a higher min wage, hey even a basic guarantee income or job. You want to call that socialism - fine call it socialism. BTW, how is your soybean doing? We need trade with you in mind and not the profit of big Corp, and we do not need trump trade war over Twitter
[Educational Post] Those following closely are already aware that Biden has a massive, massive corruption problem linked to his son Hunter. He also has a really weird and exploitable sexual problem concerning his deceased son's ex-wife and his other son Hunter Biden. But obviously Biden's biggest problem, and a problem that will only grow in severity with time, is his declining mental faculties. GOOD DAY
These voters do matter... since “Robert” is from the Midwest (Madison Wisconsin) and quite a few of these voters are in places like Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
I'm not sure he did throw out a lot of red meat except general railing on Obama. Outside of bigly tax cuts, what he did even really propose at all during the campaign? As you mention, his big game-winning policy was on trade, and he went far left on that - which is how he won over those moderates in the midwest that normally vote Dem. Since he's been President, he's certainly thrown out a lot of red meat for his base, but it didn't seem that way as much during the campaign. From what I remember, most of the criticism of him wasn't on policy because he just didn't have much of it (and what he did wasn't coherent) - it was that he was a narcissicistic rapey pyschopath and unfit for office. My point on the debates is that they didn't shift the polls. Despite him losing badly all throughout the primaries and general debates, the polls never reflected those losses. Big picture, Clinton was up 6-8 points pre-debates and post-debates. It was really the email story in the last week that shifted the margin from 6ish to 3ish, which turned out to be enough to win. His trade policies were moderate/attractive enough to convince people to flip - but it wasn't the debates that moved the results.
And that is what drew some voters including those that had cynicism enough to have stopped believing in politics. But here was a guy who was going stop playing polite and being politic when talking about policy. It didn't matter what that policy was or anything else. They only cared that he was bucking the system. To them, politics and politicians had made a mess of things and screwed them over for too long. Now somebody was going to stick it to the political machine. Since those voters weren't all that nuanced in their policy preferences anyway. They would adopt whatever Donald said. There were a few voters who actually liked the things Trump proposed but many simply adopted it because they liked the attitude of the guy saying them. Each wart on his character only made him more appealing to him.
I'm obviously taking a big guess here. The Midwest swing voters are 1) traditional republican who dislike Trump, 2) not well-off or stable true independent who care about their pocket and nothing else, 3) well-off or stable true independent who care about a gamut of issues You are right, those voters do matter. I put them in category #3, and some in #1. I think they generally still vote against Trump no matter what. Likewise, I generally think group #1 generally vote for Trump no matter what. #2 is the one that is up for grab. I haven't a clue how large this slice is - I suspect not too large. Thus, for me, #1 and #3 doesn't matter. #2 does. How big of a slice that is relative to motivating your base --- I think that's a key. Also remember that we have potential new voters coming in in 2020 - millennials. They are left leaning and very very susceptible to sit it out. That's a danger of not going progressive enough is to lose that group. A campaign that can attract both #2 and motivate the base to show up is the way go (can be done). A campaign that can't attract #2 but motivate the base VS a safer bet with Biden? Depends on which day of the week. Fear and loathing of immigrants to motivate his base. Muslim celebrated 911. Obama is a Muslim. Scalia was murdered. Just a few examples. Maybe red meat isn't even the right term here. What kind of things cause people to go ape crazy mad? I see what you are saying. But if the polls aren't moved by the debates, perhaps then there were really no clear winner? As an aside... here is an interesting poll. Independent sees Trump as less conservative than Lean Republican and is closer to him than any of the DEM candidates. Maybe the DEM shouldn't be so focused on Independent, but more on bringing out their base, especially the young voters. https://www.latimes.com/politics/st...oll-democrats-ideology-2020-presidential-race
They didn't care about policy within reason - mainly because GOP economy policies aren't "scary". They give away money in tax cuts. Promise new jobs out of trade. That's it. They don't threaten to take away your guns. Or your health care. Or tax you a whole lot to give you things back. Or end fracking. That strategy of "blow up the system, we're gonna restructure your lives!" doesn't work the same as "blow up the system and free tax cuts!". Progessivism, by definition, means progress - which is scary when you start talking about specifics. Conservatism is about leaving things alone - that's much less scary. It's why health care reform was super popular in 2008 but then extremely easy to demonize in 2010. From 2016 to 2018, Dems won over suburban America - that was the big blue wave, and those are not progressives. They are moderates that can't stand Trump. You start messing with their economic livelihood, though, and everything scary that the GOP says about Dems will resonate heavily.
[Educational Post] No fair-minded person would look at Trump and think that his mental faculties are failing. His active schedule, his ability to command a stadium, his ability to decimate liberal sissy journalists with vegetarian leanings... Trump is in control of every interaction. Biden, on the other hand, at the last debate, had his teeth dislodged, slurred his speech repeatedly, and used a reference that was 40+ years out of date. For chrissakes, weakling Julian Castro took Biden to the woodshed a la Chris Christie vs Marco Rubio. Castro taunted Biden in condescending fashion -- and Biden took it... just like Headboard Harris taunted Biden a month ago... and Biden took it like a chump. Biden's campaign staff purposefully hides him from the public in order to avoid gaffes and embarrassment. Biden simply is no longer mentally or physically capable of the very demanding job of President. I'm really starting to think Hillary is coming back to "save the day" once Biden runs out of money and drops out. GOOD DAY
Agreed. I think that's why you need someone who can communicate their message effectively. It's the only way to bring people along and get them past the scary parts.I think Warren got about 75% of the way there when she pointed out that even with the tax increase it costs middle-class families less money. She needs to drive that home. She also needs to keep hitting on the idea that you will get to see the doctors that you see now with her medicare for all plan. I think whoever the candidate is will need to go all the way to 100%. It will be somewhat easier to do when it is down to a one on one race. A presidential primary debate stage is a stupid place for people to watch and think they know the candidates. It is a decent place for people to watch, hear something interesting, and then research it a bit more.
Trump discussing pre-existing conditions for health insurance: "So pre-existing conditions are a tough deal. Because you are basically saying from the moment the insurance, you’re 21 years old, you start working and you’re paying $12 a year for insurance, and by the time you’re 70, you get a nice plan. Here’s something where you walk up and say, “I want my insurance.” It’s a very tough deal, but it is something that we’re doing a good job of. The dude doesn't even know the difference between life and health insurance. He is an idiot who has a at best superficial understanding of every major policy issue important to Americans at a level a GED graduate would understand. His major characteristic that defines where he is today is nutting out of a 400 million dollar penis and being very ambitious person without any desire to be intellectually curious in any part of his life. He probably hasn't even read his own ghost written book Art of the Deal. My 10 year old cousin has a better understanding of healthcare policy than Trump and he has zero c
Immigration is a big issue to working class Midwesterners who dont want the competition from Hispanic workers
Here's my thought process overall: Biden is a mediocre candidate who can't excite the left and couldn't win against a solid GOP candidate (McCain, Romney, Ryan, Rubio, Cruz, etc). Biden is the PERFECT candidate against Trump. All his weaknesses - gaffes, creepy Joe, etc - are nullified by Trump being worse at those things. Anti-Trump will bring out the base, so the Dems don't have to worry about that. Biden wins the middle comfortably by being the safe, friendly I-wanna-have-a-beer-with-him choice (see GW Bush). I have no doubt that Biden wins a landslide against Trump, and I can't say that about any other candidate. That said, many others can easily win vs Trump. Beyond that, I think Biden is the ONLY candidate who gives Dems a chance to win the Senate back in Red/Purple states like Arizona and Georgia. A base-turnout election is not going to win those seats. With 2 open seats in Georgia, you recruit 2 solid candidates and put Abrams on the ticket as VP, and the possibilities increase that much more. I think getting the Senate back is critical given the judicial branch issues.
Most of their fears have been exaggerated due to the media they consume. In reality automation and cheaper overseas labor in Asia are bigger factors in any type of shortage in certain type of jobs. Out of all the candidates, Yang probably addresses this point the best.
I don't think anyone believes these promises though. Taking away things you have is very concrete. Getting new stuff and it living up to a politicians' promises is a much bigger bridge to cross. People have been disappointed way too many times to believe that stuff.
