Texans acquire Duke Johnson via trade for undisclosed 2020 pick

You sound like a Cleveland fan, trying to sell high on your third RB. Why did they draft a RB high, if they thought Duke could significantly add to their team? If you are Cleveland's GM, you tell all these points that you listed to Bill O'Brien, trying to get him to sweeten up his pot. By all rights it sounds like he was wildly successful.

Ultimately, the production even with receiving numbers is just not up to snuff for a potential third rounder. When you are a team trying to trade for that kind of guy, you hope to buy low and then maximize his numbers after the fact. Now that we have paid a third round pick for a guy already 4 years into the league, you expect 3rd round pick production. What happens if he stays behind Lamar Miller the whole year and racks up 600 total yards of offense? If he plays more than 10 games that's a 3rd rounder you lost. You know who doesn't give up 3rd rounders for RB's without much production, already one year into their post-free agency contract? New England. Negotiating is supposed to be something that a GM does, and our lack of a GM is showing clearly in the form of the exorbitant prices we are having to pay in any transaction, be it trade or re-signing of our own guys.

 

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I know who my flex RB will be. In all my fantasy leagues.. Gonna be a lot of 3rd and longs this season.. Guaranteed 10-12 pts per game IMO

 

I won't disagree that the compensation compared to market is a little high. A 5th with stipulation to become a 4th would be more ideal of course. But as dumb as we all think the Texans FO is and don't have a GM yada yada, I doubt this was as simple as one quick phone call.

But ignoring the "market", even a 3rd round pick does not have great odds at becoming a big contributor. They're useful in taking gambles or filling out roster depth for cheap. And here you're getting someone that is at least proven in the NFL - you might disagree based on his production - but he's already done more than most 3rd rounders ever will.

 

And had Calloway not fumbled on the 1, the game would've been within 1 score, IIRC, with plenty of time left and momentum on their side. They were starting to torch the secondary.

 

I remember that, it was a miracle strip by Reid cause errbody got burned on that play.

 

I have more than a few issues with some of your arguments:

1.) Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb could be one of the better RB duos in the game next year and that shouldn't be a knock on Duke as you label him a #3.

2.) The stats speak for themselves. If he achieves 3rd Rounder status, that would mean he's been more reliable, especially for the production that will likely come, than any other Texans #2 I can recall in our history.

3.) Lamar Miller may not be a Texan in 2020 and this is insurance for that.

4.) Duke Johnson will easily surpass 600 total yards, UNLESS, he unfortunately gets hurt. There are many what-ifs in this post.

5.) You are comparing the Texans to the Pats. Stop it. We aren't the Pats nor should we ever be compared to them in this facet or any till we prove it. You're just setting yourself up for disappointment.

6.) "Negotiating is supposed to be something that a GM does, and our lack of a GM is showing clearly in the form of the exorbitant prices"
- We don't have a GM because he was fired so unless BoB fired him. I really don't think it matters, GM or not. The team is pretty set as is... I have faith the Texans will get their guy next year.

7.) I don't know if you eat your words but if he performs like I think he can under Watson... this is easily one of the biggest coups for the Texans. This is the best team he's ever played on. Unfortunate for him that he had two other backs that were better than him on the Browns (never thought I'd say that).

 

While your end point MIGHT be true, I don't think this proves it. Trent Williams is 31 and holding out because of a contract dispute where he clearly wants a new, big deal. Duke is a soon to be 26 year old, who wasn't holding out, with a small cap hit. Apples, oranges.

From afar, its hard not to call this a SLIGHT overpay. Straight up just a 4th makes more sense, or a 5th that turns into a 4th. More than the fact that it's an overpay is the problem/reality that they had all offseason to find a Donta replacement if they needed one. The Gaines thing, the Donta thing coming so late, and then this. There is the sense that they have given up an asset when they could have signed one of the 1 or 2 year contract backup RBs and given up nothing.

So ultimately, sounds like this comes down to BillyO really liking Duke. As with so many other things then, wait and see... but hard to give BillyO the benefit of the doubt on anything at this point.

 

Yep, seems like a James White type of player in our continued effort to be like the Pats (not a bad thing).

 

He's not holding out over a contract dispute. He may want a new contract in a trade, but he's not interested in a new contract with the Redskins.

 

I would show B.O.B film of how the Chargers and Saints used Sproles, who is still a Texans killer at age 36.
Also not being mentioned, Duke is an exceptional runner from the shotgun position at 5.6 per carry from that formation in 2017, 2018, granted it wasn't the workload of a number 1 rb.

Last season I kept the Uggs (shotgun) vs under center formation ratio in the game threads. I was pleasantly surprised when it came out balanced at the end of the season. only the Patriots were more balanced. I think that continues this year. It's probably the only thing I like from the bob the head coach, the balance.

I would just like more roll outs. Watson is unbeatabol in designed bootlegs. Maybe this is the year they add more than 12 designed roll outs.

 

It may not directly affect that particular signing (possible trade and sign) but in future cases, while we remain GM-less and with good ole Billy boy essentially calling shots, you can't say we're not looked at as susceptible for a quick overpay due to the lack of true experience at the top of the GM totem that this Texans FO has built us.

Negotiations with our current and upcoming FA (Clowney another good example) will also be affected. These guys will see how the Texans react out of desperation and will for sure bide their time as they look to pounce on huge paydays or buy low candidates if we do end up out of the playoff race this season.

Those two things are my biggest worries with Bill'OB, apparently, calling the shots now.

 

Notwithstanding the fact that this doesn't excuse our front office for sucking when it has sucked... I think this argument is kind of silly at this point. New England does this, New England does that. They have the best QB of all time. Unquestionably. They have one of the best coaches of all time. No other team in the league has that combo. They can do all kinds of different things to succeed that everyone else probably shouldn't completely copy.

Look at Pop and the Spurs. Pop is still an all-time great coach, but when you start taking away the all time great players, they barely make the playoffs... and that's still with two really really good HOF players.

Even with that, the Pats drafted a RB in the first round last year, so its not like they are just completely plug and play with whatever RB is somewhat decent.

 

Spoiler

OMG, another Houston team acquires another Randy Johnson!


"Randy "Duke" Johnson Jr."

 

Maybe you do, but I wouldn’t trust him to make me a sandwich.

 

Relative to my point though, not much difference. He's holding out and threatening not to play. So he's effectively worthless to the Redskins - unless they can get past this.

Johnson's value to the Browns might have similarly been low, as a #3 back... but he did start 2 games for them last year and was their 3rd leading rusher and 5th leading receiver.

Like I said, overpay, but not so so crazy

 

I can't say we are or we aren't.

On the face of it, any team can look at any GM move, say that was an overpay, and mark them down as guys that maybe overpay.

I think in reality, GMs have guys they target, reasons for targeting them, and overpay/don't overpay based on that on the other team's leverage.

I don't anticipate a bunch of GMs calling BillyO up and offering players in the hopes of getting back more than they otherwise would.

If the concern is that BillyO isn't a GM... well, yeah... of course. That's a concern. And you start adding that with this, and put two and two together. But Gaines could have still been here and done this trade. Or they could have gotten the guy from NE and he could have done this trade. None of which would have automatically made them "bad" GMs likely to overpay, imo.

The counter - albeit one that you'd say has a very low chance of happening - is that Johnson gives them 500+ rushing yards (379 is his high), 500+ receiving yards (much more likely, he's done that every year) and 7+ TDs (his high year is 7), and then its a fine trade. Does that mean next time BillyO comes calling about a player in the offseason the opposing GM should be like "hmmm... what does he know that I don't??"

 

Duke hasn’t missed a game ....

 

Y’all really upset when we will have compensatory picks from Kareem and tyrann leaving ??????

 

That’s cause he didn’t want to be there I’m pretty sure he was sitting out till he was traded watch he pass the physical and he healthy now