sent him some money to get him on the debate stage. surprised vegas has him ranked this high though....
He's that high because traditional polling is... well... outdated. Vegas doesn't gauge interest by calling people on landlines.
Well, it's also not a model for realistic predictions. It's just a algorithm by which they are best able to extract money from people. Yang supporters (and I am one) are probably more likely to bet money on him than Warren supporters are to bet money on her.
Young people are more wreckless. He has a youth appeal... I would go further and say poor people who tend to be attracted to socialists are bad with money because they clearly don't understand money, or at least, the economy at large (Ya'll Yang Gang types will disagree). Aren't Asians stereotyped as being good with finances though? Maybe there is a counter balance.
There is certainly a "savvyness" and "risk-taking" bias that would be reflected in betting odds. However, I do not feel it would affect the outcomes as heavily as outmodded polling does.
Bob, don't know if you saw in the other thread or not (re the political parties/candidates poll), I had a result where Yang and Trump came rated within a percentage point or two of each other from my responses to the questions asked. I am puzzled how that might be so, other than to suspect they perhaps share some policy positions that group somewhere among my generally libertarian preferences. But I am at a loss to figure out how that is, knowing relatively little about Yang's policy positions and oddly enough about the relevant Trump policy positions that must be relevant here. Don't know if you have any guesses especially if you've spent any time looking through Yang's policy recommendations.
You know, I saw that odd result, and I don't really get it. At first I thought, well, yang the entrepreneur is probably very pro capitalism, untethered markets, and so forth. But, not exactly: https://www.yang2020.com/policies/human-capitalism/
There is a scale to each question. How important is it to you? That would play a part. No two candidates are exactly never ever align on something, so if you just happen to answers some that they do agree and weight them as important or very important, you could get a close result for two seemingly very different candidates. Yang is generally against tax increase for example, although he is for a VAT. He is for the wall, but with technology not a physical wall. He is not for higher min wage, but opt for other incentives. He isn't into simply banning plastic, but again is more toward incentive that would change behaviors. He want to maintain the electoral college, but improve upon it. Those are a few that could have some similarity to Trump's stance.
Got to meet the man tonight. He says they are preparing earnestly for when the SJW/MSM knives start coming out after the debates. Also looking at how/when to go on the offensive and start "differentiating" themselves from the other candidates. I expect that will be relatively soon. Probably by debate #2 if not earlier. I gotta say that was the most diverse group of people I have ever seen in my life. Like, more diverse than the freaking movies or an amusement park; and nobody brought up identity politics the entire night. Dude gave me a big hug, parenting advice for my new baby, and autographed my book. Solid.
I expect Yang will lead with ... Trump won the Rust Belt states since 4 million jobs were automated away. The other Dem candidates in the debate will not, even the I-got-a-plan-for-that candidate.
He's still playing around with branding. Go Forward. Let's make MATH great again. The dude is smart and nimble, so I'm curious what he's going to do and if he can really be effective offensively. Haven't seen much of any attack from him.... and that's one of his better attribute. Problem solver, not complainer. But he does need to make some noise and have a message that the general i-can't-pay-any-attention public can attach to.
A few people brought up questions along this line last night. What's the game plan when it's time to go on offense? The general thought seems to be stick to your lane as much as possible -- jobs, dividend, a new measuring stick for the economy. Nobody has the leverage that Yang has from a grassroots economics standpoint. If he pounds that truth home, it will eventually rise above the noise. The biggest danger is him getting swiftboated by some activists trying to tie him to some racist or anti-LGBT nonsense. For him this race's theme is "survive and advance". It doesn't matter where he is at any given point as long as he is allowed to continue after each cut-off, because he knows that he stands alone as the non-traditional candidate and agent of change. That puts him in a unique position to capture more politically homeless voters as the primaries drag on, much the way Trump did in 2016. Beating Trump is the easy part. He's the most vulnerable incumbent in the last 50+ years. The challenge will be saving the Democratic party from itself, because it is often its own worst enemy.
I hope you are right about the leverage. And yes, I don't want him to get involved in racist or anti-LGBT complaints ---those get so tiring and solve nothing.
It's pretty much a publicity stunt, but also very much in keeping with his campaign. They already have a Freedom Dividend going to a family in NH and one in Iowa. Put your money where your mouth is.